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according to a report by chao news and qianjiang evening news on september 13, “congratulations, the big gold bracelet on your hand has appreciated in value again! gold prices have skyrocketed again, and it is another record-breaking day! gold prices hit new highs every year, but this year is especially high…” at around 11 o’clock in the evening on september 12, the owner of a gold shop in hangzhou looked at the soaring international gold prices and couldn’t help but post this in the customer group.

on the evening of september 12, the gold price suddenly rose sharply. on the evening of september 13, the international gold price continued to hit a record high. as of press time, london spot gold once hit $2,585.15 per ounce. as of press time, it was reported at $2,584.33 per ounce. comex gold futures rose to a maximum of $2,611.7 per ounce. as of press time, it was reported at $2,610.2 per ounce.

the market generally believes that the surge in gold prices was affected by the expectation of a rate cut in the united states. on september 12, local time, the u.s. department of labor released the latest ppi data for the united states. the data showed that the year-on-year growth rate of the u.s. ppi in august was 1.7%, a significant drop from the previous value of 2.2%. the core ppi in the united states in august rose by 2.4% year-on-year, the previous value was 2.40%; it rose by 0.3% month-on-month, and the previous value was revised from 0% to -0.2%.

at the same time, the european central bank, headquartered in frankfurt, germany, held a monetary policy meeting and decided to cut the deposit mechanism rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, the refinancing rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%, and the marginal lending rate by 60 basis points to 3.9%. this is the second time the ecb has cut interest rates since it announced a rate cut in june this year.

tan yaling, president of the china foreign exchange investment research institute, said in a telephone interview with a reporter from the china business network that the trend of the depreciation of the us dollar and the increased expectations of the federal reserve's interest rate cut may be the most important factors that stimulate the rise in gold prices. looking ahead, the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged. however, in the medium term, gold prices may face certain downward pressure in the near future, which is related to the technical cycle and the extension of time.

gold prices hit record highs more than 20 times this year, and the price of domestic gold jewelry per gram reached 761 yuan

on september 13, topics related to gold were once ranked first in hot searches.

the popularity of gold has also spread to the secondary market. on september 13, the a-share gold and jewelry concept surged. as of the close of the day, pengxin resources rose by the daily limit, shanjin international rose by more than 4%, chifeng gold and zijin mining rose by more than 3%, and china national gold and shandong gold rose by more than 2%.

according to incomplete statistics, the international gold price has hit new highs more than 20 times this year. it is worth mentioning that just one month ago, on august 16, the international spot gold price broke through $2,500 per ounce for the first time in history. a few days later, the spot gold price hit a new high again.

as the international gold price hit a new high, the domestic gold retail price also rose rapidly. according to chow sang sang's official website, on september 13, the store's gold jewelry was priced at 761 yuan per gram, a sharp increase of 15 yuan from the previous day.

"the best investment this year is gold bars, which have risen by 100 yuan per gram." an investor in xiaoshan, hangzhou, told the reporter that he bought a kilogram of gold bars in mid-january this year. at that time, the basic gold price was 480 yuan per gram, and today the basic gold price has reached 582 yuan per gram, making him 100,000 yuan in 9 months. the investor also told the reporter that although the gold price has reached a new high, he does not plan to sell it because he originally planned to invest in the long term.

what factors have driven the international gold price to a new high? will the trend continue?

gold is the most popular investment product in both the financial market and the commodity market. but can the trend of setting new highs continue? the reporter of national business daily (hereinafter referred to as nbd) interviewed tan yaling, the director of the china foreign exchange investment research institute.

nbd: what factors drive international gold prices to new highs?

tan yaling: the ppi (producer price index) released by the united states on the evening of september 12 fell month-on-month, lower than expected. at the same time, the year-on-year data remained basically stable. therefore, the market's expectations for the fed's interest rate cut have increased, which may be an important stimulus for the current market. in addition, the us dollar index fell and is currently hovering around 101.0. the depreciation trend of the us dollar, coupled with the increased expectations of the fed's interest rate cut, may be a more important factor in stimulating the rise in gold prices.

nbd: looking ahead to the future, is it possible that the rising trend in gold prices will continue?

tan yaling: the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged. at the beginning of the year, the price was $2,000 per ounce, and it is expected to close between $2,300 and $2,400 per ounce by the end of the year. however, in the medium term, gold prices may face certain downward pressure in the near future, which is related to the technical cycle and the extension of time. as the upward trend of gold prices is too rapid and the pace of increase is too fast, it reached $2,500 per ounce ahead of schedule. this is related to the sharp drop in the stock markets of the united states and other developed countries on august 5, which led to the early rise of gold prices. the early rise has led to an urgent need for technical corrections, and the correction strength of this decline may be relatively large, and the speed of the callback may be faster. this is my judgment.

the fed is unlikely to cut interest rates, and the ecb's rate cut is not suitable for its fundamentals

nbd: do you think the fed is likely to cut interest rates soon? what do you think of the possibility of the fed cutting interest rates?

tan yaling: i think the possibility of interest rate cut is not high. because although the cpi (consumer price index) and ppi have decreased year-on-year, the month-on-month data has increased slightly and remained at a high level. therefore, the potential inflationary pressure may be relatively large. under the current economic fundamentals, the corporate earnings and resident status of the united states are not suitable for interest rate cuts. the economy and stock market are performing well, and the necessity of interest rate cuts is not obvious. in addition, i think the interest rate cut may be a market speculation, the purpose of which is to cause the depreciation of the us dollar. the purpose of the depreciation of the us dollar is to provide space for the federal reserve to tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates.

nbd: on the news front, the european central bank announced a rate cut. will the european central bank's accelerated rate cut have an impact on the gold market?

tan yaling: if the ecb accelerates the pace of interest rate cuts, it will stimulate the gold market. at present, the share of gold in international foreign exchange reserves is higher than that of the euro. in the foreign exchange reserves of the international monetary fund, gold accounts for 18%, while the euro accounts for 16%. i think the ecb's interest rate cut is not suitable for europe's fundamentals and may face greater risks in the future. especially considering that its interest rate cut the day before was asymmetric, that is, the deposit rate was reduced by 25 basis points, while the marginal loan rate and the financing loan rate were both reduced by 60 basis points, which brought the overall interest rate level to below 4%. the larger the interest rate gap between the euro and the us dollar, the more serious the risk of speculative arbitrage.

nbd: do you think the ecb's interest rate cut is not a trend and may even reverse and raise interest rates again?

tan yaling: there is such a possibility. this is because we need to consider the inflation situation. the current inflation rate has not yet fallen back to the reasonable level of 2%. in addition, there is a possibility of potential inflation rate increase. because the current inflation environment is not mainly reflected in food prices and commodity prices, but more reflected in service prices. this is a new feature of this round of inflation in developed countries.

the characteristic of this round of inflation in developed countries is that it is closely related to service prices

nbd: considering the new characteristics of this round of inflation, what are the key factors that may enable developed countries to stop or ease inflation?

tan yaling: the key issue at present is that the pressure of labor costs is increasing, and the cost of service prices is also increasing. therefore, the inflation problem is no longer just a problem of food and energy. in the past, food and energy may have been the main factors driving inflation, but now it may have turned into a problem of labor level and salary income. the current structural changes are different from the past. whether it is the uk, the eurozone or the united states, this round of inflation is characterized by a greater correlation with service prices. therefore, the core inflation rate has become a relatively important parameter. however, in the structure of the eurozone, the concept of core inflation is relatively weak, while in the united states, the concept of core inflation is relatively clear, and there are some differences between the two in structure and mechanism.

nbd: my country's central bank has stopped increasing its gold holdings for four consecutive months. what is the reason? is it possible that other central banks will also stop purchasing gold?

tan yaling: the reason is very clear. the high gold price means that the cost of increasing gold holdings has also increased. in these four months, the gold price has risen from $2,300/ounce to $2,500/ounce, reaching its historical high. at the same time, the yield of us treasury bonds has remained at a relatively stable and high level. our decision was correct.

nbd: if the price of gold continues to remain high, is it possible that the central bank will continue to suspend its gold holdings?

tan yaling: it is not suitable to buy gold aggressively. you have to consider the cost, which is too high.