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on thursday, september 12, the u.s. treasury auctioned $22 billion in 30-year treasury bonds. after the excellent 3-year and 10-year treasury auctions earlier this week, the longer-term 30-year treasury auction seemed to be lackluster and was clearly inferior to the shorter-term treasury auctions.

the winning bid rate for this auction was 4.015%, the lowest since july 2023, and the last bid rate was 4.314% on august 8. the pre-issuance rate for this auction was 4.001%, 1.4 basis points lower than the final winning bid rate, marking the third consecutive auction with a tail spread reflecting weak demand.

the bid-to-cover ratio for this auction was 2.38, a rebound from 2.31 in the previous auction, but still lower than the average of 2.39 in the last six auctions.

direct bidders, an indicator of domestic demand in the united states, including hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds, insurance companies, banks, government agencies and individuals, received an allocation ratio of 15.7%, which was little changed from last month.

as an indicator of overseas demand, indirect bidders, which are usually foreign central banks and other institutions that participate in the bidding through primary dealers or brokers, received an allocation ratio of 68.7%, higher than 65.3% last month and higher than the recent average of 65.5%. overseas demand is a good performance of this 30-year us bond auction, but it is still not as eye-catching as shorter-term us bonds.

as the "buyers" who take over all unpurchased supplies, primary dealers received an allocation ratio of 15.7% in this round, slightly lower than the recent average of 15.9%.

after the results of the 30-year u.s. treasury auction were released, u.s. treasury yields quickly rose to near the intraday high.

however, the financial blog zerohedge noticed a strange phenomenon - although the u.s. treasury yields rose to near the intraday high, at the same time, the possibility of a rate cut increased, which attracted attention. zerohedge pointed out that in fact this is unlikely to happen unless next week's u.s. retail sales data is significantly lower than expected, triggering concerns about a u.s. recession.