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on september 13, the market fluctuated downward throughout the day, with the shanghai composite index approaching 2,700 points and hitting a new low, and the chinext index fell by more than 1%. as of the close, the shanghai composite index fell by 0.48%, the shenzhen component index fell by 0.88%, and the chinext index fell by 1.07%.

in terms of sectors, real estate, diversified finance, mergers and acquisitions, and steel sectors led the gains, while solid-state batteries, huawei hisilicon, liquor, and cloud gaming sectors led the losses.

overall, more stocks fell than rose, with more than 4,000 stocks falling in the market. the turnover of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets today was 524.7 billion yuan, an increase of 9.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day.

today is friday, and it is also the last trading day before the mid-autumn festival.

the funds that "withdrew money for the holidays" left the market yesterday, and today's stage is given to those funds that chose to stay.

judging from the results, constrained by the sluggish trading volume, the index was unable to rise and continued to fall in the afternoon. the shanghai composite index fell to a low of 2703.37 points, basically announcing the start of the "2700-point defense battle."

the rotation of themes is still relatively frequent. within one day, many sectors such as big finance, state-owned enterprise reform, cpo, new stocks, aigc, and petrochemicals performed successively.

but for short-term traders, if there is no sustainability, all performance ≈ no performance.

it is worth mentioning that the new stock zhongcao spice (n zhongcao) listed today performed unusually actively, with multiple temporary suspensions during the session and a surge of nearly 500% at one point, driving some short-term funds to move to the beijing stock exchange; huaying technology, which had "ceilings and floors" in the morning session, pulled up in the late trading and closed at 14:56. near the closing, it even had a rare "heaven, earth, and sky" trend, achieving 5 consecutive boards.

on the other hand, the "stock king" kweichow moutai fell below 1,300 yuan during trading, setting a new recent low.

big financial stocks led the rise, and soe reform concepts triggered a surge in stocks

looking at today's sector gain list, the intention of "risk aversion" and "stability seeking" is quite obvious.

not only are precious metals leading the gains as gold prices soar, but several sectors under "big finance" are also rarely seen in the same frame - insurance, real estate and securities.

regarding the real estate sector, some analysts said that the interest rate cuts in europe and the united states have made investors full of expectations for domestic interest rate cuts, which has directly stimulated active trading in real estate stocks, which are most sensitive to interest rates. the continuous adjustments in the real estate sector in recent years have also accumulated demand for a rebound.

ping an securities said that in the short term, it will focus on the high-quality residential market. in the first half of the year, many places issued new regulations on residential quality, and the quality of new projects entering the market has been improved to meet the diversified demand for improved housing. it is expected that the high-quality residential market will be the first to stabilize, but the early product power is relatively weak and the volume and price of new houses will still be under pressure, and the government may need to use methods such as stockpiling to speed up sales.

for the securities sector, integration and mergers and acquisitions are the most popular words recently. everbright securities said that under the background of regulatory policies guiding "cultivating first-class investment banks and investment institutions" and increasing differentiation in industry profits, mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry are expected to enter an accelerated period. the comprehensive deepening of capital market reforms led by the new "nine national policies" will continue to reshape the long-term competitive landscape of the securities industry. it is recommended to focus on: first, leading securities firms with significant comprehensive strength and business advantages; second, securities firms catalyzed by merger and reorganization policies.

on the other hand, as landmark cases of mergers and acquisitions and restructuring continue to emerge in the field of central state-owned enterprises, the concept of state-owned enterprise reform is heating up in the a-share market.

the state-owned enterprise reform concept, which surged in the morning, fell back with the market in the afternoon, closing down 0.07%; but there were still about 30 stocks in the sector with an increase of more than 10%.

on the news front, on september 12, wu qing, chairman of the china securities regulatory commission, said when meeting with liaoning provincial party secretary hao peng and governor li lecheng that the china securities regulatory commission will implement the new "nine national policies", further comprehensively deepen capital market reform, continuously improve the quality and investment value of listed companies, give full play to the functions of the multi-level capital market system, support enterprises to grow and develop through equity and debt financing, futures risk management and other channels, and take multiple measures to activate the m&a and restructuring market.

some market opinions believe that after 8 years, a-shares have entered a new cycle of mergers and acquisitions. looking ahead, the a-share merger and acquisition market will show three major trends: first, industrial mergers and acquisitions; second, technology mergers and acquisitions; and third, state-owned mergers and acquisitions. state-owned mergers and acquisitions have multiple advantages such as policies, funds, resources, and high merger success rates. under the new round of state-owned enterprise reforms, state-owned assets are expected to become an important force driving the merger and acquisition market.

funds speculated on the newly listed stocks of beijing stock exchange in the afternoon

as of the closing, the new stock n zhongcao on the beijing stock exchange soared 241.33%, with a turnover rate of over 98%, surpassing juneng shares and setting a new daily turnover rate record since the implementation of the t+1 system for a-shares.

driven by this, funds that had "nowhere to go" in the afternoon chose to speculate on the newly listed stocks of the beijing stock exchange.

starting from around 13:38, the beijing stock exchange 50 index, which had originally fallen by about 1%, suddenly rose in large volume.

at 14:00, the highest increase reached 2.65%. among the stocks on the beijing stock exchange, micro-port optoelectronics, xujie technology, avite, and china textile standard all rose sharply.

since last year, when the short-term market conditions of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets were weak, there was a situation where funds were "diverted" to the beijing stock exchange, which is a kind of path dependence.

according to media reports, judging from the endogenous growth of the beijing stock exchange, there has been a certain positive trend recently.

data from soochow securities shows that the business performance of the beijing stock exchange rebounded in the second quarter, with revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company improving month-on-month. the average operating income of listed companies on the beijing stock exchange in the second quarter was 170 million yuan, an increase of 18.48% from the first quarter, and the average net profit attributable to the parent company was 12 million yuan, an increase of 16.18% from the first quarter. from the perspective of external growth, as the m&a market gradually picks up, the beijing stock exchange is also showing signs of emerging.

from the perspective of valuation, the overall valuation level of the beijing stock exchange is at a relatively low level, and there is great room and potential for valuation improvement. as of august 30, 2024, the pe (ttm) of the beijing stock exchange, chinext, and science and technology innovation board were 18.64 times, 26.33 times, and 33.33 times, respectively, and the pb (lf) were 1.89 times, 2.47 times, and 2.5 times, respectively. the valuation multiples of beijing stock exchange companies also have obvious advantages, and compared with the science and technology innovation board and chinext, there is room for continued growth in the future.

moutai fell below 1,300 yuan during the session, and the liquor sector continued to fall back

in today's morning trading, kweichow moutai opened lower and fell to 1,297.3 yuan, setting a new low for the period; the stock price rebounded in the afternoon, but was still operating underwater.

the overall mood of the liquor sector was also not good. in addition to yanshi shares hitting the limit, yingjia gongjiu and wuliangye were among the top losers.

some analysts say that the downturn in mass consumption has "infected" liquor, and even high-end liquor cannot escape adjustment, even though the price-earnings ratio and dividend yield of many high-quality stocks look very attractive. but for investors, the price-earnings ratio and dividend yield are often rear-view mirrors, and future performance expectations can determine whether the current valuation is low enough and whether the dividend rate can be sustained.

zhejiang securities said that under the pressure of the current external environment, the liquor industry has seen price differentiation and frequency reduction in some scenarios, and demand has yet to recover. at present, channel inventory has increased, and the pace of payment collection is the same as or slightly slower than last year. the agency expects that the wholesale price of moutai may not reach a new low in the short term, and the industry's sales in the third quarter will improve compared with the second quarter. it also believes that the mid-autumn festival and national day are the touchstones for liquor companies, and liquor companies with better performance during the mid-autumn festival and national day may have a stronger ability to cross the cycle.

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