2024-09-13
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reports on thursday said that officials at the european central bank’s governing council have not ruled out a rate cut at their next meeting on october 17, even though a series of rate cuts is unlikely at this point. given the downside risks to eurozone economic growth, officials at the european central bank want to keep the option of a rate cut on hold at their october meeting.
a spokesman for the ecb declined to comment on the news.
analysts pointed out that there are only five weeks left before the ecb's october meeting, when officials will have only one new inflation data. to judge whether the eurozone economy will decline, policymakers need to rely on soft data such as pmi rather than hard data.
on the same day, when asked about the prospects for the october meeting, ecb president lagarde did not provide specific guidance on the possibility of a rate cut, only saying that the ecb was committed to making decisions based on the data.
on thursday, the ecb cut its key deposit rate by 25 basis points as expected, and its main refinancing and marginal lending rates by 60 basis points. ecb president lagarde said that eurozone economic growth is facing downside risks, but as long as necessary, the policy will remain restrictive enough and will keep the monetary policy restrictive for a long enough time.
markets reduced bets on an ecb rate cut next month following lagarde's press conference. they now see just a 20% chance of a move, compared with 40% earlier this week.
the ecb has now cut rates twice, in june and today, and markets are betting on at least one more cut before the end of the year. given officials tend to use quarterly economic forecasts to guide policy decisions, markets expect december to seem like a more reasonable time to act.