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on the evening of september 12, spot gold continued to rise, setting a new record high. as of press time, spot gold was quoted at $2,550 per ounce, up 1.54%, nearly $40 higher than the intraday low.

in terms of news, the us unemployment and ppi data will be released tonight. the number of initial jobless claims in the us for the week ending september 7 was 230,000, up from 227,000 in the previous week, the first increase in three weeks; the us ppi in august rose 1.7% year-on-year, up from 2.2% in the previous week.

in addition, the us cpi for august released yesterday increased by 2.5% year-on-year, falling for the fifth consecutive month; it increased by 0.2% month-on-month, the same as the previous month. the core cpi for the month increased by 3.2% year-on-year; it increased by 0.3% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.

expectations of a fed rate cut rise

the federal reserve’s september interest rate decision is coming next week, and many institutions predict that the federal reserve will cut interest rates in september.

cicc believes that the august inflation data basically locks in the fed's 25 basis point rate cut in september, but does not support a substantial easing. kaiyuan securities also believes that the current data does not pose an obstacle to the fed's september rate cut.

citic securities research report stated that it expects us inflation to be roughly stable year-on-year this year, and still believes that the cooling trend of rental inflation has not reversed, and maintains its forecast that the federal reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, each time by 25bps.

what impact will it have on gold prices?

dongfang jincheng research report pointed out that the upward risk of august inflation data is not great, and the employment data released recently all point to the cooling of the us labor market, which will further strengthen the expectation of the fed's interest rate cut in september and have a certain catalytic effect on gold prices. however, there is still uncertainty about the extent of the interest rate cut, which may cause the fluctuation of gold prices to be amplified. in addition, the uncertainty of the us election is still there, and the geopolitical tensions continue, and the safe-haven demand still supports the gold price. overall, the gold price will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

donghai futures research report believes that from a long-term perspective, with the increasing expectations of a fed rate cut and uncertainty in the global economy, gold is still expected to remain strong in the coming months.