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as russia launches a major counterattack in kursk, the united states and britain consider "using big moves"

2024-09-12

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reporter | an jing

editor|liu haichuan

more than a month after the ukrainian army invaded russia's kursk oblast, the russian army launched its first major counterattack in kursk and recaptured part of the territory occupied by the ukrainian army.

military observation agencies tracked that the russian army sent more experienced troops in the counterattack, including airborne troops and marines. previously, russia mainly deployed reserve soldiers in kursk, and chechen special forces later joined the battle.

at the same time, russian troops continued to advance in eastern ukraine, and the front line has advanced to an area about 8 kilometers away from the strategic town of pokrovsk.

as the russian army approaches pokrovsk, the united states and britain are considering relaxing restrictions on ukraine's use of their long-range missiles to strike russian targets. since the beginning of the russian-ukrainian conflict, western countries have banned ukraine from using their long-range missiles to strike russian targets.

british sources revealed that the british government has basically decided to allow ukraine to use storm shadow cruise missiles to strike russia. british foreign secretary david lammy said that iran's delivery of missiles to russia was a turning point.

according totassaccording to reports, on september 11, 2024, apti alauddinov, commander of the "akhmat" special forces of the chechen republic of russia, announced that the russian army liberated 10 settlements in kursk that day.

araudinov said that the ukrainian army suffered heavy casualties and began to realize that it was "not easy" to hold the occupied territory. statistics released by the russian ministry of defense on the same day showed that more than 350 ukrainian soldiers were killed in the battle. since ukraine entered kursk on august 6, more than 12,200 ukrainian soldiers have died.

last week, ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky announced that the ukrainian army had captured 100 settlements in kursk and controlled 1,300 square kilometers of land. more than 30 civilians in kursk oblast were killed in the ukrainian army's actions.

governor of kurskalexey smirnovthe ukrainian government said on wednesday that more than 150,000 residents in the region had been forced to relocate since last month. the fighting is expected to cause economic losses of 85 billion rubles (about 6.656 billion yuan) to the agricultural sector in kursk, one of russia's main grain producing areas. currently, 300,000 tons of stored grain are located in the ukrainian occupied area.
us think tankinstitute of war studiesaccording to the battle observation report, russia sent more experienced troops in the kursk counterattack, including the 51st airborne regiment and the 155th naval infantry brigade. the russian army is currently mainly launching a counterattack on the western side of the ukrainian occupied area.

the agency predicts that the russian army may try to split the ukrainian-occupied area of ​​kursk into two parts and then launch a larger-scale counterattack.

the blue area is the area controlled by the ukrainian army, the red area is the area where the russian army advanced, and the yellow area is the area that the russian army claimed to have recaptured. image source: institute for the study of war

one of the purposes of ukraine's attack on kursk was to force russia to redeploy troops and reduce the pressure on the donbas region in eastern ukraine. however, in retaliation for ukraine's attack on kursk, russia has stepped up its offensive in eastern ukraine. russian security council secretary sergei shoigu announced on tuesday that since august, the russian army has advanced nearly 1,000 square kilometers in the donbas region.

last sunday, russia announced that it had takennovochrotivkathe town is only 12 kilometers away from pokrovsk, a major town in eastern ukraine. pokrovsk is a key target of the russian army. the town is a transportation hub in eastern ukraine and a major supply route for the ukrainian army. if pokrovsk is occupied, the russian army will be one step closer to the goal of occupying the entire donetsk.

the russian front line is only about 8 kilometers away from pokrovsk. pokrovsk authorities said that the russian army has begun firing artillery at the town. pokrovsk had about 60,000 residents before the war, and now more than half have evacuated. the ukrainian authorities previously issued a mandatory evacuation order to local residents.

in addition to the unfavorable war situation in eastern ukraine, as winter approaches, how to survive the cold winter with destroyed energy facilities has become another problem that ukraine urgently needs to solve. ukrainian prime minister denis shmygal said this week that russian troops destroyed all thermal power plants serving kharkiv, ukraine's second largest city. ukraine has now lost half of its power generation capacity, and rotating power outages will continue in the winter.

unwilling to be dragged into the battlefield, the united states has previously disagreed with ukraine using american weapons to attack russian targets. since the beginning of this year, the united states has relaxed restrictions and allowed the ukrainian army to use american weapons to attack russian targets in some areas such as kursk. ukrainian president zelensky has been calling on allies such as the united states, britain, and france to lift restrictions on ukraine's use of long-range weapons from various countries and allow ukraine to launch long-range missiles at russia.

as russian troops approached pokrovsk, the united states and britain began to consider meeting zelensky's demands.

on wednesday, u.s. secretary of state antony blinken and british foreign secretary david lammy jointly visited ukraine for talks with zelensky.blinken said, since the beginning of the russia-ukraine conflict, the united states has been willing to adjust its policies according to changes in the situation on the ukrainian battlefield, "and we will continue to do so."

blinken said he would then report to us president joseph biden on the policy adjustment. on tuesday, when asked by the media whether he would lift restrictions on the use of us long-range missiles against ukraine, biden said the us government was "studying it". it is reported that ukraine has submitted a list of targets it plans to strike to the united states.

lamy pointed out that iran's provision of ballistic missiles to russia has changed the strategic thinking of britain and the united states. he accused iran of seriously escalating tensions between russia and ukraine.

earlier this week, the u.s. government accused russia of receiving fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles from iran, arguing that iran's assistance would give russia more room to launch long-range attacks on ukraine. iran sent a letter to the united nations, strongly denying that it had provided missiles to russia.

british officials accept thethe guardianin an interview with reuters, the british government said that it has decided to allow ukraine to use storm shadow cruise missiles to attack russian targets, but the decision will not be officially announced. on friday, british prime minister keir starmer will meet with biden in washington, the united states, and there will be no press conference after the meeting.

the storm shadow has a maximum range of 250 kilometers and was jointly developed by the united kingdom, france and italy. ukraine has already equipped the missile. if ukraine is allowed to use the storm shadow against russian territory, it is expected that the united kingdom, france and other countries will set a series of restrictions to avoid using the missile against civilian targets.

the united states is considering giving up on the long-range army tactical missile system (atacms), which has a maximum range of 305 kilometers. ukraine previously launched atacms against crimea. ukraine does not recognize crimea's annexation by russia. for ukraine, using atacms to attack crimea is not an attack on the russian mainland.

usaandu.k.the media believes that the main purpose of the two countries allowing ukraine to use long-range missiles from the united states and britain against russia is to force russia to move its fighters to areas beyond the missile range and farther from the russian-ukrainian front to hinder the russian army's advance on the ukrainian battlefield. in addition, long-range missiles can also attract the attention of the russian air defense system, making it easier for ukrainian drones to enter russia. however, due to the limited number of missiles, storm shadow and atacms cannot reverse the situation on the russian-ukrainian battlefield.
kremlin spokesman dmitrypeskov warned on wednesdaythe united states and europe's permission for ukraine to use their respective long-range missiles to strike russia means that europe and the united states are further directly involved in the conflict between russia and ukraine, and russia will respond to this. vyacheslav volodin, chairman of the russian state duma (lower house), threatened that if the relevant reports are true, russia will use more destructive weapons against ukraine.
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