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cailianshe news, september 12 (editor: xiaoxiang)since ukraine secretly mobilized a large number of troops and broke into russia's kursk oblast in early august, the battlefield situation between russia and ukraine seems to be getting more and more chaotic in the eyes of the outside world. however, for the military leaders on both sides and even the us pentagon, which is "watching the show from a distance", the current battlefield situation is becoming clearer.

russia is exerting pressure on the long front line in eastern ukraine, and the attention of all parties is actually focused on the strategic location of red army city (called pokrovsk in ukraine) in the donetsk region, which is at the center of the current war.

if the battle of kursk in history was a major turning point in the strategic situation on the soviet-german battlefield in world war ii, then the ownership of the red army city today may even determine the direction of the russo-ukrainian conflict.

russia and ukraine fighting each other? it's not that simple!

one of the most obvious changes on the russian-ukrainian battlefield this summer is undoubtedly that both sides have begun to use their latest military resources to seize large tracts of territory from the other side rather than defend their own territory.

in early august, ukraine's attack on kursk caught russia off guard. ukraine's goal was obvious.they hope to occupy thousands of square kilometers of land and control hundreds of towns and villages.trying to force russia to disperse its forces, especially to lure the russian army to withdraw its main forces from eastern ukraine to relieve ukraine's pressure in the donetsk region, and attract international attention and gain more western aid.

however, it is clear that ukraine's strategic goal has not been achieved.

after the initial panic and confusion, the russian army gradually came into a standoff with the invading ukrainian army in kursk oblast. at the same time, the russian offensive in donetsk continued to make progress.

on tuesday local time, russian security council secretary and former defense minister sergei shoigu announced thatrussian troops have advanced nearly 1,000 square kilometers in the donbas region since august.

(russian army's advance speed, gray represents the area actually occupied by the russian army on june 1, and the red line represents the area occupied on august 1)

shoigu said that in august and the first week of september, ukraine lost an average of 28 square kilometers of territory every day, with up to 2,000 casualties, and about 1,000 square kilometers of territory in the donbas region was liberated. and the most important thing is not even the number of kilometers, the most important thing is that they (the ukrainian army) face up to 2,000 casualties every day. "

in fact, even the general staff of the ukrainian armed forces issued a notice on the social platform "telegram" this week, saying that the situation of the ukrainian army on the entire front line remains serious. according to the ukrainian notice, the situation in the direction of kurahovo and red army city in the area controlled by the "donetsk people's republic" is the most serious.

the key to the red army city

at present, judging from the map, the russian army’s goal is actually very clear: to capture ukraine’s logistics center, the red army city of pokrovsk, and try to capture the commanding heights of chasov yar.

capturing these two cities will enable russia to further occupy other areas in the eastern part of donetsk oblast, thereby achieving the russian military's strategic goals.

since capturing the industrial city of avdeyevka in february, russian troops have continued to advance westwards by occupying villages. in recent weeks, they have accelerated their advance and are now only a few miles from pokrovsk, a city once home to 80,000 people.

ukrainian troops in the region, where they are outnumbered and outgunned, say their defensive efforts are hampered by a shortage of artillery shells and a lack of trained troops.

as shown in the figure below, the military strategic position of red army city is self-evident: it is located on a major highway and railway and is the main supply route for the ukrainian army in the donetsk region.

(strategic position of red army city)

the loss of krasnoyarsk would leave eastern cities like kostyanivka and chasov yar with only one main supply route from the northeast and would bring russian troops closer to the westernmost part of the donetsk region.

pentagon spokesman patrick ryder also said at a media briefing this week that the us department of defense believes that holding pokrovsk is of great strategic significance to the ukrainian army.

specifically, the city is located at the intersection of strategic transportation routes. therefore, it is vital for ukraine to defend the city. the ukrainian army is "making great efforts" to defend this location, ryder said.

what will happen if the ukrainian army loses the red army city?

in an interview with the media last weekend, denis yaroslavsky, commander of the ukrainian reconnaissance forces, said that if ukraine loses control of the red army city, it will lead to the collapse of the entire front.

"if the red army city falls, the blow to the ukrainian army will be much greater than the loss of artyomovsk, soledar and avdeyevka. if we lose it, the entire logistics chain and the entire front will collapse, and the enemy will take the opportunity to approach other cities in the donetsk region," said yaroslavsky.

in fact, it is not difficult to see from the map above that once the red army city is lost, the ukrainian army may lose an important supply line in the chasov yar area, a high ground that the russian army has long been trying to capture., and may cause the latter to fall into the fate of being "wrapped dumplings".

chasov yar is a small city, with a former population of about 12,000, but the city is located on a commanding height in the region, which, if captured, would provide a significant advantage for russian forces to capture the cities west and northwest of donetsk, the only remaining major ukrainian population centers in the region, kramatorsk and slavyansk. holding the high ground would also make it easier for russia to attack ukrainian military units and positions with artillery and drones.

(chasov yar's geographical advantages)

russian troops have been working for the past few months to cross a canal that runs along the eastern side of the main chasov yar region.

ukraine has troops stationed in buildings on the west bank of the canal. but russia launched an attack across the canal in august, and ukraine's presence in those buildings has been threatened. russia has also set up positions and used drones and explosives to attack ukrainian vehicles entering the city, making it more difficult for ukrainian troops to move in supplies and troops.