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september has entered a "high energy" cycle again, and "high energy" implies that there are violent fluctuations in the gold, stock, and foreign exchange financial markets. historically, september is usually the worst month for the us stock market. according to data from "s & p global", from 1928 to 2022, the s&p 500 index has a 55% chance of falling in september, which is surprisingly high.

in terms of technical trend, the s&p hit a record high of 5669 points in july and peaked again in august, reaching 5651 points, but failed to break through and fall back. in the short term, it seems to form a double top resistance. if the effect of the interest rate cut in september fails to break through the resistance and reach a new peak, be careful to test the bottom of 5119 points in early august. the medium-term trend is still in an upward trend. if the market closes below 5119 points, the medium-term upward trend will be destroyed, and it is better to sell than to buy.

september is traditionally a month of high volatility in the gold market. as history has shown, gold prices have a seasonal tailwind in september. since the united states allowed citizens to legally hold gold in 1974, september has usually been a good month for gold investors. data shows that the average return of gold in september was 1.7%, the best performing month of the year, while the average return of the other 11 months was only 0.5%. however, from september 2017 to september 2023, gold prices have fallen, which is called the "september curse" by the market, with an average decline of 3.2%.