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perhaps the only thing that remains unchanged in the market is the cyclical nature.

in the past few years, under the grand narrative of the fourth industrial revolution, the new energy track has emerged as a big market. later, traditional energy sectors such as coal and oil began to rise, while the new energy track continued to adjust.

recently, the market has changed again. the stocks of the "big three oil companies", china shenhua, shaanxi coal industry and others continued to fall. the new energy track has gradually become active, first inverters, wind power equipment, and then solid-state batteries, and multiple sub-sectors have begun to bottom out and rebound. this contrast was more obvious this morning: the coal and oil sectors pulled back, china national petroleum corporation, china national offshore oil corporation, sinopec, and china shenhua all fell sharply, while the new energy track collectively strengthened, energy metals, photovoltaics, solid-state batteries and other sectors rose sharply, and the three giants ningwang, diwang, and lithium king all rose together: catl rose 2.34%, byd rose 3.54%, and tianqi lithium rose by the daily limit.

this morning, the trend of coal and oil sectors also affected other high-dividend assets, and sectors such as banks, highways, and electricity fell. a-shares saw a big differentiation this morning, with the shanghai composite index falling 0.92%, the shenzhen component index rising 0.24%, and the chinext index rising 0.9%. the offshore rmb rose sharply against the us dollar during the session, breaking through the 7.12 mark.

new energy track surges

this morning, the new energy sector collectively strengthened. from the market point of view, the energy metal sector rose first, and stocks such as yongshan lithium and tianqi lithium hit the daily limit. stocks such as ganfeng lithium and rongjie also rose sharply. lithium carbonate futures exploded in the morning. solid-state batteries, photovoltaics, pet copper foil and other sectors also rose sharply.

what happened behind this? zhongzheng jun noticed that there may be four catalysts on the news:

first, news came out in the market this morning that a major factory had suspended its lithium mica business and a leading salt factory had stopped production for maintenance.

second, data released by shanghai steel union showed that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate today rose by 1,000 yuan compared with the previous day, with the average price at 73,500 yuan per ton.

third, media reports show that according to data released by chilean customs, chile exported 18,145 tons of lithium in august, of which 16,112 tons of lithium carbonate, a decrease of 20% from the previous month and 11% from the previous year. in the same month, 12,143 tons of lithium carbonate were exported to china, a decrease of 22.8% from the previous month and 6% from the previous year.

industry insiders analyzed that with sufficient domestic supply and overstocked inventory, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from chile to china has been declining for four consecutive months. since it takes about 36-47 days for chilean ships to arrive at the port, and chilean exports account for about 80% of my country's lithium carbonate imports, with the decline in chilean exports, it is predicted that my country's lithium carbonate imports in september and october may be reduced.

some analysts also believe that from a fundamental perspective, the costs of foreign mining companies are inverted, and the current price is close to the cost line of integrated companies. the output of lithium produced from raw materials other than salt lakes has declined. the domestic supply in august may decrease. coupled with the recent simultaneous decrease in imported lithium carbonate, the pressure on the supply side has eased. in terms of consumption, the output of positive electrode materials has increased, and the demand in the energy storage market is good. entering the peak consumption season, downstream demand is expected to continue to improve. at present, the inventory of lithium carbonate has begun to see an inflection point. with the improvement of consumption and the reduction in production on the supply side, the fundamentals of oversupply and demand may usher in a phased improvement, and lithium prices are expected to bottom out and rebound.

fourth, it is reported that us vice president and democratic presidential candidate harris and republican presidential candidate trump held their first televised debate in philadelphia, pennsylvania on the evening of the 10th local time. trump said he is a loyal fan of solar energy.

in addition, for the photovoltaic sector, market participants said that although the photovoltaic industry is still in a state of oversupply, with the active response of industry leaders and policy support, the industry's supply and demand pattern is gradually improving. as of the end of august, silicon wafer inventory has dropped to 25gw and is expected to decline further in september. in addition, according to statistics from the national energy administration, my country's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 27.1% year-on-year from january to july 2024, showing a steady growth in market demand.

high-dividend assets plummet

this morning, high-dividend assets were collectively adjusted. the four major banks, industrial and commercial bank of china, china construction bank, agricultural bank of china, and bank of china, the "three oil giants" china national petroleum corporation, china national offshore oil corporation, and china petrochemical corporation, the leading stocks in the coal sector, china shenhua and shaanxi coal industry, the leading stocks in the hydropower sector, china yangtze power and huaneng hydropower, and the leading stocks in the nuclear power sector, china general nuclear power group and china national nuclear corporation, all fell to varying degrees.

haiyin wealth is under investigation

on the morning of september 11, the fengxian branch of the shanghai public security bureau announced that it had filed a case against haiyin wealth management co., ltd. for suspected illegal fund-raising crimes, and taken criminal compulsory measures against han moumou, han mou, wang mou and other suspects. currently, the public security organs are collecting evidence of crimes in an all-round way, and are making every effort to promote the investigation of cases, recover the stolen money and recover the losses, and protect the rights and interests of investors to the greatest extent.