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the news that a german warship will sail through the taiwan strait in mid-september without informing china in advance has not only attracted the attention and stern warning of the ministry of foreign affairs, but also aroused the curiosity of some military experts on the island.if the german warship insists on passing through and continues to hype it up, how will the pla respond? taiwan military expert lu wenhao gave his personal opinion.

if german warships pass through the taiwan strait and cause a stir, how will the people's liberation army respond?

according to the global times, german media recently reported that a german cruise ship and a supply ship arrived at incheon port on september 6 and conducted joint exercises with the south korean navy. in the future, they will also go to manila in the philippines and jakarta in indonesia. during the journey, the two german warships will pass through the taiwan strait without notifying the chinese side.

taiwanese military expert lu wenhao said that if the german warships did not enter the western pacific from the east china sea through the miyako strait to the philippines in mid-september, but instead went south through the taiwan strait with great fanfare.

if taiwan continues to make statements supporting the so-called "indo-pacific strategy" and "freedom of navigation" of the united states, or even hypes up "maintaining peace in the taiwan strait", the pla will inevitably take the lead and use a "big move" and dispatch "joint combat readiness patrols" to prepare for it.

the so-called "joint combat readiness patrol" refers to patrols or cruises conducted by multiple arms of the people's liberation army in a state of combat readiness, which means that war can be launched at any time and a strong deterrent can be formed.

the reason why lu wenhao made such a prediction is that he came to this conclusion after observing the dynamics of the people's liberation army in recent times:

first, the guangdong maritime safety administration issued a notice on september 1, announcing that live-fire exercises would be conducted from september 2 to 4 in a 368 square kilometer sea area connected by four points in dacheng bay, fujian, which is about 139 kilometers southwest of kinmen.

taiwan’s defense department said on the 4th that the people’s liberation army conducted a joint landing exercise in the waters near dacheng bay in dongshan, fujian on the 3rd, and successively dispatched various types of main and auxiliary fighters, helicopters, and drones to cooperate with amphibious ships and roll-on/roll-off cargo ships to load ground forces.

pla aircraft

secondly, taiwan’s defense department stated on the 8th that the people’s liberation army dispatched 7 sorties of fighter jets on the 7th. in addition, 2 sorties of pla fighter jets and 6 pla warships continued to operate around the taiwan strait.

in addition, the pla also dispatched 18 sorties of various types of main and auxiliary fighter jets and drones, including the j-16 and kj-500, on the 8th. among them, 15 sorties of fighter jets were in the airspace of northern, central and southwestern taipei, cooperating with pla warships to carry out "joint combat readiness patrols."

lu wenhao said that based on his observations from january to july this year, the people's liberation army conducted 3-4 "joint combat readiness patrols" per month on average, and as many as 5 times in august.

according to the pla's rules, the "joint combat readiness patrol" in early each month basically ends before the 6th. in september, it was postponed to the 8th, which may be related to the live-fire shooting in the waters near dacheng bay in fujian from september 1 to 4.

from the schematic diagram released by taiwan’s defense department, it can be seen that in the previous stage, the people’s liberation army may have withdrawn some air forces to participate in the military exercise in the airspace south of dacheng bay in fujian.

finally, having learned from previous experience, the uss ralph johnson, a destroyer, was monitored and alerted by the pla eastern theater command's combined army, navy and air force when it passed through the taiwan strait on august 22, conducting a real-time "combat readiness alert" simulation exercise.

pla warships

it can be seen from this that if the german warships did not quietly pass through the taiwan strait, but instead made a high-profile move, the pla would definitely send multiple arms from the navy, army, and air force to serve.

however, this is also predictable. the taiwan issue is the chinese people's own problem. if any external forces attempt to interfere, the people's liberation army will definitely strike back hard.

for some time, external forces led by the united states have frequently sailed through the taiwan strait under the banner of so-called "freedom of navigation" and have wantonly hyped it up. this move has undoubtedly sent the wrong signal to the "td" elements on the island and is a blatant interference in my country's internal affairs.

foreign ministry spokesperson mao ning

as the ministry of foreign affairs has said, china respects the united nations convention on the law of the sea. ships of all countries have the right to navigate in the relevant waters of the taiwan strait, but china will firmly oppose anyone who wants to cause trouble there.