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cailianshe news, september 11 (editor: xiaoxiang)regardless of how much the federal reserve will cut interest rates next week, the interest rate market seems to be locking in one thing over the past few weeks: the federal reserve will usher in two large waves of interest rate cuts by at least the end of january next year.

according to data from the interest rate swap market, industry traders have fully digested the expectation that the federal reserve will cut interest rates next week - but there is only a small probability (less than 30%) that the rate will be cut by 50 basis points.looking ahead, the situation is different.

recent activity in options tied to the secured overnight financing rate (sofr) shows traders are increasingly positioning for the fed to cut interest rates by 150 basis points after its january meeting, which is what swaps markets are currently pricing in.

to achieve such a scale of easing, fed officials would have to implement a sharp 50 basis point rate cut in at least two of the four meetings before the end of january, absent an emergency rate cut between meetings.

in fact, just a few weeks ago, traders were betting that the fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points this month amid concerns that a deteriorating u.s. labor market would force the fed to act quickly to address the threat of a recession.