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will the oil market continue to be sluggish? opec lowers its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next

2024-09-10

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on tuesday (september 10th) local time, opec (organization of the petroleum exporting countries) released its latest monthly report, in which the organization lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next year. this is the second consecutive time it has lowered its expectations.

opec expects global oil demand to grow by 2.03 million barrels per day this year and 1.74 million barrels per day next year. last month's forecasts were 2.11 million barrels per day and 1.78 million barrels per day, respectively. total demand will reach 104.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and 106 million barrels per day in 2025.

the report said global oil demand growth remains at a healthy level, well above the historical average of 1.4 million barrels per day before the covid-19 pandemic, thanks mainly to strong air travel and road mobility, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activity in non-oecd countries.

in its latest report, opec raised its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3% from the previous 2.9%, but still maintained its forecast for global economic growth of 2.9% next year.

meanwhile, opec's total crude oil production fell by 197,000 barrels per day to 26.59 million barrels per day in august, dragged down by supply disruptions in libya.

the report came as international oil prices plunged last week, wiping out all their gains so far this year, amid growing concerns about the outlook for global demand.

brent crude futures, the global oil price benchmark, fell below $69 a barrel on tuesday, with a daily drop of nearly 4%, hitting a new low since december 2021.

the continued low oil prices have forced opec+ to postpone plans to resume production. opec+ is currently implementing a total production cut agreement of about 2.2 million barrels per day. the alliance was originally scheduled to relax voluntary production cuts from october, but last week postponed the increase in production to december.

opec+ is an alliance of the organization of the petroleum exporting countries (opec) and countries led by russia.

market watchers say oil prices are currently well below what saudi arabia and russia need to balance their budgets.

as the two major decision-makers of opec+, saudi arabia and russia have the motivation to support oil prices. saudi arabia's "vision 2030" medium- and long-term economic plan requires a lot of funds, and russia also needs the income from oil to maintain its military spending.