news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

at a time when the market is sluggish, the veteran private equity firm dan shui quan took action to introduce a key figure!

china securities journal reporter learned that tao dong, a well-known macroeconomist, has joined danshuiquan hong kong company as president of danshuiquan (hong kong). the reporter received confirmation from danshuiquan investment on tao dong's joining.

it is understood that tao dong has served as a director of the china chief economists forum, chief economist of credit suisse, and vice chairman of greater china for asia pacific wealth management. he joined ubs after ubs acquired credit suisse and served as executive vice chairman of ubs wealth management.

tao dong joins danshuiquan

"tao dong has completed the process and has officially joined the company. in the future, he will empower investment and customer service work from a global macro research perspective." dan shuiquan responded to a reporter from securities china.

according to his resume, tao dong holds a ph.d. from the university of utah. he has worked in the united states, japan and other places. he has been based in hong kong, china since 1994. he joined credit suisse first boston in 1998 and has served as chief economist and director of credit suisse first boston asia, senior economic analyst and head of china research department of hong kong baoyuan securities, and vice chairman of credit suisse asia pacific private banking greater china.

tao dong is well-known for his forward-looking analysis and early warning of the asian financial crisis in 1997 and china's macroeconomic regulation in 2004. as a macroeconomist, tao dong updates his articles on the china chief economist forum and weibo every week.

tao dong wrote in his latest article that the market waited anxiously for the latest u.s. non-farm payrolls data. the data itself was mixed, but funds dispersed and u.s. stocks recorded the worst single-week performance in 18 months.

tao dong pointed out that the market anxiety comes from two parts. first, the sharply lowered previous data has made investors more worried about the risk of recession. second, several senior fed officials pointed to a 25-point rate cut. a large rate cut does not seem to be the first choice of the fomc. the us stock market has adjusted drastically, while the futures market has limited changes in pricing of the probability of a rate cut. the chicago mercantile exchange interest rate swap price currently implies a rate cut of 112 points this year vs. 108 points before the data was released.

"the u.s. stock market started falling in september due to market concerns about recession risks. in fact, the latest data is not very bad, but the market had excessive expectations for a large-scale interest rate cut by the federal reserve. expectations were not met and consolidation began," said tao dong.

tao dong said that the focus this week is the ecb's regular meeting, and there is a high chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. the european economy (especially the german economy) is in urgent need of a boost, the euro exchange rate is too strong against the yen, and wage increases have fallen sharply.

latest views on danshuiquan

according to the official website, danshuiquan was established in 2007 and is one of the earliest private equity fund managers in china. it is led by zhao jun. danshuiquan focuses on investment opportunities related to china and conducts domestic private equity investment, overseas hedge funds and institutional special accounts business.

in 2007, zhao jun left harvest fund and founded danshuiquan investment, and has always adhered to value investment and reverse investment. this investment strategy and investment style determines that some undervalued stocks must be deployed in advance for left-side trading, which often bears certain drawdowns. according to the reporter of securities china, danshuiquan currently maintains a high position and firmly believes that the current market is at the bottom range.

recently, a reporter from securities china learned about the latest monthly report of dan shuiquan from channels.

danshuiquan pointed out in its monthly report that many people have felt the market downturn in august's a-share market. the transaction amount is one of the indicators of market activity and confidence. the average daily transaction amount in august was less than 600 billion yuan, 30% lower than the average daily transaction amount of 880 billion yuan in the past five years. the more extreme the pessimism, the more forces will gather in the opposite direction. historically, after extremely pessimistic sentiment, there has been a certain degree of rebound.

is there still a logic of growth under the sluggish market? dan shuiquan pointed out that in recent years, china's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage. in this process, the growth model of enterprises has also changed accordingly. for example, with the slowdown in demand growth in some domestic industries, it has become a natural choice for many manufacturing companies to go to overseas markets to acquire customers and growth space. in the domestic market, we can also see different growth paths for excellent companies. for example, under the optimization of the supply side of the industry, many high-quality leading companies have gained a larger market share and advantage. technological breakthroughs in the field of science and technology have made import substitution a path for some companies to open up the market. in addition, cost reduction, efficiency improvement and mergers and acquisitions also bring new profit growth space for companies. these new growth models provide a new perspective for observing the future development of chinese companies and also provide new sources of opportunities.

over the past two years, dividend stocks have experienced a relatively extreme performance driven by the risk-averse style. some dividend stocks have hit historical highs. as the degree of crowding continues to increase, the dividend yield has also declined, and the dividend capacity has been compressed. in this case, it is difficult to chase these dividend stocks from a fundamentals-driven perspective. at the same time, from danshuiquan’s observation of the characteristics and spillover of dividend stocks, while dividend assets are constantly expanding, there are certain commonalities, such as a stable competitive landscape, stable cash flow, and focus on shareholder returns. some other fields have business models that can resist economic downturn risks and relatively stable profitability, and also have the potential to become "new dividend" assets after further spillover of dividend assets.

if we think from a dialectical perspective, there will be no unchanging things and environments in this world. the optimism in the stock market will always have its peak, and the pessimism will also have its trough. for everyone in it, although it is very difficult, it is still crucial to maintain a positive attitude, maintain continuous observation, thinking and judgment, and actively prepare for the arrival of opportunities.