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rapeseed oil price to rise? canadian rapeseed is under anti-dumping investigation, listed companies say impact is hard to judge

2024-09-10

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the anti-dumping investigation on canadian canola seeds has been launched. the ministry of commerce officially announced yesterday that it will initiate an anti-dumping investigation on imported canola seeds originating from canada starting from september 9.

for domestic listed companies, the specific impact has yet to be assessed. a reporter from cailianshe called the securities department of daodaoquan (002852.sz), and its staff said: "there is not enough information at present, so it is impossible to judge (the impact) now."

analysts told cailianshe reporters that the supply of rapeseed may be affected in the later period, and the prices of rapeseed and its by-products are expected to rise, but the increase in domestic rapeseed production and the import of by-products such as rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are expected to ease the supply gap.

on september 9, the ministry of commerce announced that it would initiate an anti-dumping investigation on imported rapeseed originating from canada from the date of the announcement. the dumping investigation period determined in this investigation is from january 1, 2023 to december 31, 2023, and the industry damage investigation period is from january 1, 2021 to december 31, 2023. the announcement shows that this investigation will start from september 9, 2024 and should usually be completed before september 9, 2025. it can be extended for 6 months under special circumstances.

the announcement stated that preliminary evidence and information obtained by the ministry of commerce showed that imported rapeseed originating from canada was exported to china at a price lower than the normal value, which was dumping. at the same time, the quantity of this product entering china increased significantly, and the price continued to fall, which caused a reduction and suppression of the price of similar products in china's domestic industry. china's domestic industry suffered substantial damage. there is a causal relationship between the dumping of imported products from canada and the substantial damage to the domestic industry.

on september 3, the spokesperson of the ministry of commerce mentioned in response to reporters' questions that according to recent reports from china's domestic industries, canada's canola exports to china have increased significantly and are suspected of dumping, reaching us$3.47 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 170%, and prices continue to fall. affected by canada's unfair competition, china's domestic canola-related industries continue to suffer losses.

zhang deqiang, rapeseed oil market analyst at zhuochuang information, told a reporter from cailianshe that canada is my country's main importer of rapeseed. with the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation, rapeseed supply may tighten in the future. the prices of rapeseed and its by-products, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, are also expected to be affected and fluctuate, with an expectation of rising prices.

a person from an edible oil processing company also told cailianshe reporter that for companies with limited raw material inventory, the purchasing cost of imported rapeseed may increase in the later period.

at present, my country's rapeseed import dependence is relatively high, and canada is the main source of imports.in 2023, china's dependence on rapeseed imports was 63.52%, of which canadian rapeseed imports were 5.0502 million tons, accounting for 91.97% of the total rapeseed imports.

it is worth mentioning that china is also the world's largest buyer of rapeseed. it is reported that more than half of canada's rapeseed exports are sold to china. after the chinese ministry of commerce launched an anti-dumping investigation on rapeseed and related chemical products imported from canada, canadian farmers, agricultural associations and the ministry of agriculture paid close attention. the canadian canola industry is recovering from drought. after the chinese announcement, canadian canola prices fell sharply.

zhang deqiang also told cailianshe reporters that increasing domestic rapeseed production and directly importing rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal can help domestic edible oil-related companies alleviate the gap caused by the decline in rapeseed imports.

"in recent years, my country's ministry of agriculture and rural affairs has been advocating the expansion of rapeseed planting in the south. with the increase in domestic rapeseed output and quality, dependence on imported rapeseed may decline. in addition, although rapeseed imports have decreased, imports of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal can be increased, and countries importing rapeseed oil have relatively more choices, which can also help alleviate the supply gap." zhang deqiang said.