2024-09-09
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the federal reserve’s interest rate cut has entered a countdown to certainty.
data released by the u.s. department of labor showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the united states increased by 142,000 in august, which was lower than market expectations, making the fed's interest rate cut this month a consensus expectation in the market. new york fed president williams made it clear that it is appropriate to lower the federal funds rate now.
the federal reserve's increasingly certain interest rate cut cycle will undoubtedly bring a more relaxed external environment to china. china's monetary policy will have more room for maneuver and supportive monetary policy will have more room to play.
is supportive monetary policy a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio or a reduction in interest rates? at present, as zou lan, director of the monetary policy department of the people's bank of china, said, the measurability, controllability and relevance of money supply to the economy have declined; but the quantitative transmission of "supply based on demand" is more feasible and credible than a rate cut. zou lan said there is room to reduce the deposit reserve ratio.
against the backdrop of asset shortages, in order to prevent financial system risks and revitalize existing risky assets, the current financial system most needs "demand-based" liquidity unblocking and the realization of existing risky assets.
the semi-annual reports of listed banks show that the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of many banks have experienced different degrees of negative growth, and the net interest margin of major banks has narrowed, and the net interest margin of the four major banks has narrowed by more than 20 basis points. the narrowing of net interest margin will inevitably weaken the ability of commercial banks to withstand the cold, and the interest rate cut will not bring new credit demand, but will expose the exposure risk of assets such as existing credit. some residents repay loans in advance and some corporate departments borrow new loans to repay old loans. the interest rate cut has revealed the risk exposure of unstable existing assets, affecting the profitability of banks.