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another strategic nuclear submarine has been commissioned in india. how will it develop in the future?

2024-09-08

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it is reported that the indian submarine "arigat" was commissioned recently. this is india's second "arijah" class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine.

india said that the commissioning of the submarine is an important step in enhancing india's naval capabilities and strategic deterrence.

what is the level of india's submarine construction?

data map: india's "arigat" nuclear submarine (source: global times)

the arigat submarine retains many of the performance specifications of india's first domestically built nuclear submarine, the arihant. the two strategic nuclear submarines have a displacement of about 6,000 tons, a maximum surface speed of 12-15 knots, a maximum underwater speed of 24 knots, and are equipped with four vertical launch tubes that can carry 12 k-15 submarine-launched ballistic missiles with a range of 750 kilometers or four k-4 submarine-launched ballistic missiles with a range of 3,500 kilometers.

military observer cui yiliang believes that the performance of india's two domestically-produced strategic nuclear submarines is roughly equivalent, and there is a certain gap compared with similar equipment of today's major naval powers.

generally speaking, the displacement of strategic nuclear submarines is close to or exceeds 10,000 tons, while the displacement of indian strategic nuclear submarines is much smaller, which affects their performance such as bomb load. the "arihant" nuclear submarine carries k-15 short-range ballistic missiles with a small body, while the k-4 is a medium-range ballistic missile with a larger body, which will lead to a reduction in the submarine's bomb load, thereby weakening its strategic deterrence capability.

although india's nuclear submarine industry has made some progress, it is still far from the world's advanced level.

why does india take an unconventional approach to developing submarines?

data map: indian soldiers patrolling the disputed kashmir region (source: global times)

it is worth noting that, except for france, other countries in the nuclear submarine club first developed attack nuclear submarines, which are relatively easy to develop, and then developed strategic nuclear submarines that can launch submarine-launched ballistic missiles on their basis. india, however, did the opposite and gave priority to the development of strategic nuclear submarines.

cui yiliang pointed out that the reason why india wants to develop strategic nuclear submarines "in one step" is to seek strategic advantages and seize a favorable position in nuclear competition with its neighbors.

india and pakistan have been in constant conflict, and even had several hot wars. the two countries have always been working hard to develop their nuclear arsenals.

compared with the three types of nuclear weapon launch platforms, air-based, land-based and sea-based, sea-based launch platforms have the best survivability. pakistan does not have the strong national strength to develop strategic nuclear submarines, but india does.

what is the future development direction of indian submarines?

data map: india's first independently developed nuclear submarine "arihant" (source: reference news)

after the indian submarine "arigat" was commissioned, indian media revealed that the third "arijah" class nuclear submarine "ari daman" may be commissioned in 2025, and its displacement has increased to 7,700 tons.

cui yiliang analyzed that after india meets its basic needs for strategic nuclear submarines, it may turn to developing attack nuclear submarines.

according to india's relevant plans, there are two more "arihant" class nuclear submarines, with a significantly increased displacement, which provides basic conditions for loading more ammunition, more complex noise reduction equipment, as well as sonar, sensors, etc. however, such an improvement still cannot make india's strategic nuclear submarines rank among the world's advanced ranks - india's accumulation in the submarine industry is still insufficient.

in addition, india has given up its efforts to develop its own attack nuclear submarines and has been leasing russian attack nuclear submarines. i think india will have to put its own attack nuclear submarines on the agenda sooner or later.