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reporter of china business network: xiao ruidong editor of china business network: zhao yun

in the trading week that just passed (9.2~9.6), which was also the first trading week of september, the performance of a-shares can be described as "decline in both volume and price."

overall, not only has the big surge at the end of august been completely wiped out, but the daily trading volume has also returned to the level of more than 500 billion; the major stock indexes are all green this week.

from a micro perspective, only 1,024 stocks closed higher during the week, while as many as 4,262 stocks closed lower.

stay optimistic but respect reality.this is our core view on the stock market and the original intention of our weekly review.

as for the current market and the stocks in the market, we can actually say:

the logic is there, the subject matter is there, the underestimation is there, and the height is there.

the only thing missing is two things:confidence and funding.

even many investorsconfidence can be initially rebuilt with just a few more days (or even one day) of growth.but for the market to rise, liquidity and incremental funds are indispensable.

wind data shows that in the first half of this year,the average daily turnover of the a-share market is 860.5 billion yuan.this is roughly the same as the full year of 2023 (872.9 billion yuan); from the second half of the year to now, the average daily turnover of the a-share market has dropped to 622.9 billion yuan; it has been significantly lower since august, with only595.2 billion yuan.

the "disappeared" volume of more than 200 billion yuan obviously did not all "fall away" or "evaporate", but a considerable portion of it chose to withdraw and wait and see.

when the continuous inflow of funds drives up stock prices, the money-making effect of market participants is unlocked, and more investors are expected to return or join, forming a positive cycle.

so, what funds are taking the lead in the current market? what sources of fresh capital may enter the market in the second half of the year? in this week's review, let's talk about this topic.

the most stable incremental funds in the market are still the "national team"

whether it is the so-called mysterious funds or the "national team", this force has played a role in the market recently. after all, central huijin is increasing its holdings of relevant etfs with real money.

the chart below shows the overall volume and price situation of on-exchange broad-based etfs from the end of july to date.

comparing with the k-line chart of wind all a during the same period, first of all, the rising and falling directions of the two are almost completely consistent; at the same time,the increase in volume of broad-based etfs can often drive the overall market volume to increase, but sometimes it cannot.

on the one hand, this depends on whether the market-supporting funds buy large-cap stocks such as the sse 50 and csi 300 (to support the index) or small-cap stocks such as the csi 500 and csi 1000 (with emotions).

on the other hand, the news and sentiment are different every day, and we cannot expect the market to rely solely on this force to lead the rhythm.

in short, broad-based etfs are an extremely important front at present and are of great significance to the real-time capital flows during trading.

the good news this week is thatthis front will soon see new incremental funds.

it is reported that in the second half of this week, the first batch of 10 csi a500 etfs have been collectively approved.from product application to approval and then to issuance, it takes less than 5 days.

even the csi a500 index tracked by this batch of products will not be officially released until september 23.

this is curious.why are fund companies so proactive and their products so efficient in getting approval?

it is understood that as the first heavyweight broad-based index after the "new nine national policies", its compilation is purely based on market capitalization and trading volume, excluding 500 stocks outside the csi 300 constituent stocks, taking into account both market capitalization representativeness and industry balance.

specifically, the constituent stocks of the csi a500 index have a certain degree of overlap with the csi 300, csi 500 and csi 1000, including 234 constituent stocks of the csi 300 index, 206 constituent stocks of the csi 500 index and 43 constituent stocks of the csi 1000 index.

some industry insiders believe that the issuance of csi a500 etf is expected to recreate the hot scene of csi a50 etf.more incremental funds are rushing into the market.specifically:

with the federal reserve likely to cut interest rates in september, on the one hand, it will open up space for domestic monetary policy, and on the other hand, the second half of the year is expected to see new reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, as well as new economic stimulus policies.

on the other hand, trillions of new unconverted funds are expected to flow back to china in the second half of the year. at that time, overseas funds are likely to take advantage of the situation and work with domestic smart funds to find the most suitable investment targets in the context of interest rate cuts.

the subscription/subscription funds are incremental, and as long as the conditions such as the size and liquidity of this batch of products are suitable, it is conceivable that large funds will even be able to use "one-click support" in the future.

what other “living waters” can we look forward to?

at a securities firm's a-share seminar this week, it was mentioned that there are two main sources of incremental funds this year:

one is the etf mentioned above (especially stock etf).

the second is insurance funds.

this week, the insurance sector led the market significantly, indicating that some funds have firmly believed in the positive factors and entered the market first.

on the news front, the state council meeting at the end of august pointed out thatcultivate and expand patient capital such as insurance funds,break down institutional barriers, improve assessment and evaluation mechanisms, and provide stable long-term investment for the capital market and technological innovation.

western securitiesthe research report pointed out that in the first quarter of 2024, the scale of insurance funds' investment in stock assets reached a historical high of 3.6 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 271.9 billion yuan month-on-month.

it believes that under the guidance of the new "nine national regulations" in april 2024, which emphasize "optimizing the policy environment for equity investment of insurance funds, further improving the performance evaluation mechanism of state-owned insurance companies, and more effectively encouraging and supporting equity investment", the efforts of insurance funds to "enter the market" are expected to be further strengthened.

the recent pullback in bank stocks is also, to a certain extent, related to the market’s discussion on the trends of insurance funds.

according to reports, the market previously believed that in addition to the "national team" as a clear card, insurance funds were also the main force in buying banks. this is because insurance funds originally prefer high dividend sectors, and insurance funds are a relatively obvious incremental funds this year.

however, the semi-annual report released at the end of august showed that insurance funds did not seem to have any obvious moves to increase their holdings in state-owned banks.icbcharmony health insurance, one of the top ten shareholders, was replaced by the csi 300 etf in the second quarter.

this has led some people to feel that the logic has been falsified.

however, some people also pointed out that insurance funds have various investment methods, including direct investment and indirect investment through purchasing funds... it is not surprising that they are not reflected in the top ten circulating shares of individual bank stocks.

moreover, some of the top ten shareholders of the csi 300 etf themselves have a lot of insurance funds.

the aforementioned western securities research report believes that the core demand of insurance fund investment is to cover the cost of the liability side, so there is a great demand for long-term, stable dividend assets. it is also beneficial to leading stocks with greater growth potential and more abundant cash flow to support dividends.

in addition, as an important long-term fund in the market,social security fundin the second quarter of this year, the allocation to a-shares was increased.it is expected that holdings will continue to increase in the future.

on august 19, ding xuedong, secretary of the party leadership group of the national social security fund council, wrote in the study times: "we must continue to increase investment in the domestic capital market, increase long-term equity investment in strategic and basic areas related to the lifeline of the national economy and the people's livelihood, and increase investment in scientific and technological innovation, new quality productivity and other aspects."

according tohuatai securitiesit is estimated that in the second quarter of this year, the allocation intensity of the social security fund to a-shares increased month-on-month, and the proportion of shareholdings rose slightly to 1.3%, which is at a high level of 85% since 2015.

wind data shows that as of august 31, the social security fund appeared in the top ten circulating shareholders of 615 individual stocks in the second quarter, holding a total of 60.71 billion shares, with a total shareholding value of 422.012 billion yuan.

in terms of shareholding value, as of august 31, 380 stocks had a shareholding value of over 100 million yuan.agricultural bank of china, industrial and commercial bank of china,china insurance groupthe market value of shareholdings ranked first, at 102.551 billion yuan, 70.290 billion yuan, and 28.869 billion yuan respectively.

similar to long-term funds such as the national team, the social security fund has a high overall allocation intensity for the main board. in terms of holding structure, the social security fund increased its holdings in large state-owned banks, liquor, and passenger cars in the second quarter, and reduced its holdings in white appliances and consumer electronics components.

some people believe that the investment direction of social security funds often reflects the national policy orientation and the government's support and development intention for specific industries or fields. at the same time, social security funds usually adopt a long-term investment strategy and pay more attention to the fundamentals and long-term value of enterprises. its investment direction reflects the judgment of social security funds and even all long-term funds on the future development of industries and enterprises, which is of reference value to other investors.

in addition, as an important institutional investor and market participant, the social security fund has a huge amount of funds, which brings incremental funds to the corresponding industries and targets, and is conducive to promoting the a-share market to adhere to the concept of value investment and long-term investment.

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