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since september 3, affected by the market news of canada's rapeseed anti-dumping investigation, the sentiment of domestic rapeseed related futures has been boosted. rapeseed meal futures quickly rose to the daily limit that day, and the main rapeseed meal futures contract rose for four consecutive days. as of today's close, the main rapeseed meal contract closed up 1.92% at 2549 points, with a cumulative increase of more than 14% in four days.

(photo source: wenhua finance cailianshe)

according to the official website of the ministry of commerce, on september 3, the spokesperson of the ministry of commerce answered reporters' questions about canada's trade restrictive measures against china. china will initiate an "anti-discrimination investigation" into the relevant restrictive measures taken by canada in accordance with article 7 and article 36 of the "foreign trade law of the people's republic of china", and will take corresponding measures against canada based on actual conditions.

data shows that canada is china's largest source of rapeseed imports, accounting for more than 90%. this indirectly affects the supply of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal. calculated based on a 40% oil yield and a 56% meal yield, if my country imposes tariffs on imported canadian rapeseed in the future, it may lead to a year-on-year decrease of 2 million tons in domestic imports of canadian rapeseed, equivalent to 800,000 tons of rapeseed oil and 1.12 million tons of rapeseed meal. canada is china's largest source of imported rapeseed meal. it accounts for more than 70%. taking the past three years as an example, china's imports of rapeseed meal in 2021, 2022, and 2023 were 1.58 million, 1.74 million, and 1.72 million tons, respectively. from january to july 2024, china's imports of rapeseed meal totaled 1.618 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 41%, of which 1.185 million tons were imported, a year-on-year increase of 32%.

how will the canadian rapeseed anti-dumping investigation affect rapeseed meal? agency: sentiment boost is greater than actual impact

"according to article 26 of the anti-dumping regulations of the people's republic of china, an anti-dumping investigation shall be completed within 12 months from the date of announcement of the decision to initiate an investigation; it may be extended under special circumstances, but the extension period shall not exceed 6 months. referring to the timetable of past anti-dumping events, ddgs began the investigation in january 2016 and ended in january 2017. the entire investigation lasted 12 months. further attention should be paid to the timing of the additional tariffs and the specific tax rates in the future."

wang congying, an analyst at citic futures' agriculture group, told cailianshe that at present, the sentiment boost is greater than the actual impact. if anti-dumping is imposed on canadian rapeseed, china may increase imports of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil to make up for the shortage of imported rapeseed, with a potential supply growth capacity of 1 million tons. as the positive sentiment brought by the anti-dumping investigation dissipates, coupled with the continued drought in south america, the soybean meal spread can be bought at a low price.

wang congying further stated that since canada occupies an important position in china's rapeseed and rapeseed meal import market, the rapeseed anti-dumping investigation launched against canada is of great significance to the market, but considering that it will take some time for the anti-dumping policy to be actually implemented and the final tax rate is still uncertain, the boost to the sentiment of rapeseed meal prices is far greater than the actual impact. in addition, the average monthly rapeseed import volume in the next few months is about 500,000 tons, and the drought speculation in south america is imminent. it is expected that the soybean-rapeseed meal spread will still be expected to strengthen again after a short-term correction.

in this regard, galaxy futures stated in a special research report that since the conflict between china and canada reappeared, rapeseed meal has risen significantly. although from the perspective of price difference, there is a certain rationality in this, but according to the balance sheet, if there is no substantial gap in other protein raw materials, rapeseed meal in the fourth quarter will be difficult to support a monthly average of more than 250,000 tons of delivery. if there is no obvious problem in the supply of granular rapeseed meal in the future, it means that the supply of rapeseed has been greatly reduced. in terms of price difference, if there is no substantial import problem, the space will be relatively limited.