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the us plans to provide ukraine with stealth cruise missiles. will this significantly change the conflict situation?

2024-09-06

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us officials said they plan to provide ukraine with stealth cruise missiles, which have stronger penetration capabilities than most similar missiles in ukraine's current inventory, and russia is paying close attention to it.

according to a report by the global times on september 4, citing russian media such as ria novosti, when russian foreign minister lavrov was interviewed by russian reporters and asked about the us plan to provide cruise missiles to ukraine, he warned the us not to joke with russia's red lines.

the "jasm" series of missiles adopt a stealth design and have strong penetration capabilities.

the jasm missile may be included in the us autumn military aid plan

u.s. officials said the united states is close to reaching an agreement with ukraine to provide ukraine with long-range cruise missiles with a range deep into russian territory, but kiev may have to wait for several more months because the united states needs to solve a series of technical problems. according to media reports, the long-range cruise missiles that the united states intends to provide to ukraine are the currently active "jasm" missiles (agm-158). the u.s. "war zone" website published an article saying that the "jasm" missile is more advanced than any standoff weapon in the ukrainian army's inventory and can break through russia's most powerful defense system.

the report said that sources said that the united states is expected to announce this fall that the "jasm" missile will be included in its military aid plan to ukraine, but no final decision has been made yet.

the "jasm" missile is considered to be one of the most advanced air-launched cruise missiles in the world. the basic model has a range of 370 kilometers, and the extended-range model has a range of nearly 1,000 kilometers. it is developed and manufactured by lockheed martin of the united states. this missile is designed to destroy high-value, heavily defended, fixed and mobile targets, and the carrier aircraft can launch attacks outside the opponent's ground air defense system. the "jasm" missile also has stealth capabilities and can operate day and night in all weather conditions. models that can carry this missile include f-16 fighters.

military expert zhang xuefeng said in an interview with the paper (www.thepaper.cn) that the "jasm" missile adopts a stealth design and has strong penetration capability, and is one of the main weapons of the us military to strike high-value targets in the enemy's depth. in zhang xuefeng's view, the "jasm" missile has better stealth performance than the "storm shadow" and "scap-eg" previously provided by britain and france to ukraine, and has a stronger penetration capability.

the war zone website wrote that the jasm missile is equipped with advanced guidance devices and powerful warheads, posing a serious threat to key targets in crimea and important targets such as the main russian military assembly areas, ammunition storage sites, command facilities, and training centers behind the russian-ukrainian front. if necessary, the missile can also be used to strike "more time-sensitive targets."

the jasm missile can be equipped on american f-16 fighter jets, each of which can carry two cruise missiles. a us official said ukraine is working to equip its non-western fighter jets with the ability to launch the missile.

ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky confirmed on social media on august 4 that the f-16 fighter jets donated by other countries have arrived in ukraine and are in use. zelensky said that ukrainian pilots have begun to use f-16 fighter jets to participate in the war. but he did not disclose the number of such fighter jets that ukraine has received. zelensky expressed his gratitude to denmark, the netherlands, the united states and other countries. according to analysis, the ukrainian air force received the first batch of 10 f-16 fighter jets, including two donated by the united states that were not capable of flying.

but the f-16 crashed less than a month after it entered ukraine. according to the global times, on august 29, local time, the ukrainian military confirmed that an f-16 fighter jet crashed on the 26th, killing the pilot. the general staff of the ukrainian armed forces issued a statement saying that the f-16 fighter jet lost contact and crashed while performing a mission to intercept russian air targets with the air defense force. ukraine has set up an investigation committee to carry out work near the crash site.

"the ukrainian air force's su-24m fighter-bombers should also be able to carry the jasm missile after modification. with the assistance of the west, this fighter has been modified to have the ability to launch storm shadow and scap-eg air-launched cruise missiles," said zhang xuefeng.

f-16 fighter jets equipped by ukraine.

"significantly changes the strategic landscape of conflict"?

u.s. officials believe that providing ukraine with jasm missiles could significantly change the strategic dynamics of the conflict by putting more russian areas within range of ukrainian precision-guided weapons.

the u.s. website war zone said that ukraine's possession of the jasm missile means that russia needs to deal with an advanced air-launched standoff weapon, "the supply of which is almost unlimited and can break through russia's most powerful defense system.

previously, the ukrainian army used storm shadow and scap-eg provided by britain and france to carry out multiple strikes on high-value targets in crimea, such as the black sea fleet base, shipyards and air force bases, destroying many targets and demonstrating the long-range precision strike effectiveness of air-launched cruise missiles.

during strike operations, the ukrainian army also usually coordinates the use of suicide drones, adm-160 air-launched decoys and anti-radiation missiles to conduct joint operations to increase the probability of successful penetration of the above-mentioned cruise missiles.

the u.s. military claims that the range of the "jasim" missile is longer than most similar missiles currently available in ukraine, and may force russia to push back its military assembly and supply stations by hundreds of kilometers. this will seriously weaken russia's ability to maintain offensive operations and may provide ukraine with a strategic advantage. if the missile is launched from a location near the border between ukraine and russia in northern ukraine, it can hit military facilities as far away as voronezh and bryansk in russia; if the missile is launched near the southern front line, it can hit russian military targets in crimea.

in zhang xuefeng's view, whether the "jasm" missile will significantly change the pattern of the conflict depends on the amount of us aid. if it is a dozen or dozens of missiles, the impact on the russia-ukraine conflict will be small. if it is hundreds or even thousands of missiles, the impact on the war situation will be relatively large.

"if there are a large number of them, the ukrainian army can use this missile to carry out continuous strikes on russian airports, air defense positions, energy infrastructure and other targets. combined with the attacks of suicide drones and ballistic missiles, it will cause great interference to the russian army's front-line operations and affect the direction of the war," said zhang xuefeng.

the jasm missile can be launched from an f-16 fighter jet.

a pentagon report shows that the pentagon has purchased more than 2,000 early models of the "jasm" missile. if the extended-range and derivative models are included, the us military plans to equip more than 12,000 missiles of this series. this also means that the ukrainian air force will theoretically have sufficient reserves of long-range precision ammunition. however, the us media is also worried that if the us military provides ukraine with too many "jasm" missiles, it will seriously affect the us military's combat readiness plan.

at present, the us government has not allowed ukraine to use advanced beyond-visual-range weapons to attack russian targets. even less advanced weapons such as the "army tactical missile" launched by the "himars" rocket launcher are only approved for counterattacks across the border. if the us government approves the provision of "jasm" missiles to ukraine, it means that the us attitude on related issues has changed.

it is reported that on august 30, ukrainian defense minister umerov submitted a list of targets in russia to the united states. ukraine hopes to be allowed to use the us long-range "army tactical missile system" (atacms) to strike these targets, but the biden administration is still considering this request. on the same day, zelensky again called on western countries to relax restrictions on the use of foreign weapons by the ukrainian army and allow long-range weapons to be used in russia.

u.s. officials said that in addition to concerns about escalating the conflict, washington currently does not believe that relaxing restrictions on the use of weapons will make a significant difference in the war. "there is no magic bullet to win the war," said one u.s. official.

in addition, the us military is also worried that using the missile to attack targets in russia will reveal the secrets of the "jasm" missile. the us military believes that when using the missile to attack targets in russia, it is inevitable that missile debris or even complete missiles will fall into the hands of the russian army, and russia will have the opportunity to carefully study the performance and characteristics of this main cruise missile of the us military. us media said that once the performance of the missile is understood by the opponent, it will undermine the us military's preparations for using the missile to deal with "great power competition."

previously, russia had displayed relatively complete wreckage of the british "storm shadow" missile, and relevant russian agencies are conducting detailed research on the missile.