domestic refined oil prices see seventh drop this year, filling up a tank of oil costs 4 yuan less
2024-09-05
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domestic refined oil prices have been reduced.
on september 5, the national development and reform commission announced that from 24:00, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 100 yuan per ton. converted to the price per liter, no. 0 diesel will be reduced by 0.09 yuan, and no. 92 gasoline and no. 95 gasoline will be reduced by about 0.08 yuan.
the fuel costs of private car owners and logistics companies will be reduced. for a small private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters, a full tank of 92-grade gasoline will cost about 4 yuan less; for a large logistics transport vehicle with a full load of 50 tons, the fuel cost will be reduced by about 3.2 yuan for every 100 kilometers traveled on average.
after this round of price adjustment, the price of diesel for vehicles in most parts of the country is 7.2-7.4 yuan/liter, and the retail price limit of no. 92 gasoline is 7.6-7.7 yuan/liter.
this is the 18th price adjustment of refined oil this year, and the seventh downward adjustment this year. after this price adjustment, the price adjustment of refined oil in 2024 will show a pattern of "seven increases, seven decreases and four suspensions". after offsetting the increase and decrease, the standard gasoline and diesel prices increased by 150 yuan/ton and 145 yuan/ton respectively this year.
during this pricing cycle, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell, and the domestic reference crude oil change rate remained within the negative range.
bi mingxin, a refined oil analyst at jinlianchuang, said that at the beginning of this cycle, due to the escalation of the situation in the middle east and the announcement by the eastern libyan government to close all oil fields and stop production and exports, international oil prices rose for three consecutive trading days under the influence of investors' concerns about supply.
"but as the u.s. energy information administration (eia) released data showing a slowdown in u.s. oil consumption and the prospect of opec+ production increases dragged down, crude oil prices gradually fell." bi mingxin pointed out that in the later period, due to the governor of the central bank of libya saying that the various factions were close to reaching an agreement, speculation about the solution to the dispute over control of the central bank of libya greatly eased tensions in the oil market and pushed international oil prices down by more than 4% in a single day.
according to jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the tenth working day on september 5, the average price of domestic reference crude oil varieties was us$75.82 per barrel, with a change rate of -1.86%.
as of the close of the early morning of september 5th beijing time, the settlement price of the wti crude oil futures front-month contract fell 1.62% to us$69.2 per barrel; the settlement price of the brent crude oil futures front-month contract fell 1.42% to us$72.7 per barrel.
the direction of the next round of refined oil price adjustment is not clear yet, and there is a probability of a downward adjustment.
bi mingxin said that looking at the future market, although the expected recovery of libya's crude oil production has accelerated the decline in oil prices, the poor global economy and oil demand are still the main reasons for the weak oil market.
"if opec+ does not change its plan to restore part of its crude oil production from october, the fundamental situation of crude oil in the future market will further deteriorate. overall, the crude oil market is still in a weak stage in the short term, and international oil prices may still have room to fluctuate and fall." bi mingxin said.
li yan, a refined oil analyst at longzhong information, also pointed out that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will start with a downward trend, and the downward adjustment will be large. market concerns about the economic and demand prospects are still fermenting. the traditional peak season for fuel consumption in the united states will end in early september. it is still unclear whether opec+ will extend the production cuts. it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will be more likely to be downward.
yu yaxin, a refined oil analyst at zhuochuang information, believes that the market is currently focusing on whether saudi arabia will suspend production increases. if it increases production as planned, oil prices are likely to continue to fall. however, the current low oil price level is not in the interests of saudi arabia and other countries that have reduced production. the probability of suspending production increases is high, so oil prices tend to stabilize. in addition, the federal reserve is about to enter a rate cut cycle, and the weakening of the us dollar will also provide support for oil prices.
yu yaxin therefore said that there is great uncertainty in the trend of crude oil. according to the current crude oil price, the recalculated rate of change may start at a deep negative level, and the first day of the new cycle may be reduced by 250 yuan/ton.
according to the current refined oil price adjustment cycle, the next price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on september 20, 2024.
