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the u.s. treasury yield curve has ended its longest inversion in history: interest rate cuts are set, so what about recession?

2024-09-05

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cailianshe news, september 5 (editor: xiaoxiang)on wednesday, the yield on the u.s. 2-year treasury bond fell below the 10-year yield, marking the first time that the key u.s. treasury yield curve has ended its inversion since the "black monday" storm in the global market last month.

compared with the "rushing and fluttering" of the market storm last month (august 5), this time, the trend of the u.s. treasury yield curve ending its inversion is undoubtedly more clear., because until early asian trading on thursday, the steepening process of the curve was still continuing. as of press time, the benchmark 10-year treasury yield was still about 0.3 basis points higher than the 2-year treasury yield.

it can be said that this basically heralds the end of the long-term abnormal inversion phase of the 2-year/10-year u.s. treasury yield curve since mid-2022.

according to industry statistics, the duration of this round of inversion of the u.s. treasury yield curve (from july 2022 to august 2024) reached more than 780 days, which is also the longest inversion experience in history.