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federal reserve beige book: economic activity is flat or declining in 9 regions, and the job market is mixed

2024-09-05

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on wednesday, september 4, eastern time, the federal reserve released a national economic situation survey report commonly known as the "beige book", which was compiled by 12 regional federal reserve banks. the report shows thateconomic activity has been flat or declining across much of the u.s. in recent weeks.

the beige book is released two weeks before the federal reserve's fomc policy meeting. the beige book is compiled by the cleveland fed and summarizes information collected before august 26, including anecdotes and comments on business conditions in the 12 regional fed districts.

economic activity was flat or declining in most regions, and consumer spending slowed

the beige book said economic activity increased slightly in three districts, while the number of districts reporting flat or declining economic activity increased to nine from five reported in july.

employment levels remain generally stable, but some companies have only hired essential positions, reduced employee hours and shifts, or reduced overall staff numbers through natural attrition (such as retirement or resignation). however, overall layoffs have been relatively small.wage growthoverall, it was relatively mild, and while non-labor costs and commodity prices also increased, the overall increase was kept within the slight to moderate range.

most areasconsumer spendingthere was a slight decline, while in the previous reporting period, consumer spending remained generally stable.car salesthe situation varies across regions, with auto sales increasing in some areas and slowing in others due to high interest rates and high car prices.

most of the regionsmanufacturing activitiesthe decline was part of a sustained contraction in the sector, with both regions noting it was already part of an ongoing contraction in the sector. reports on the residential and commercial real estate markets varied, butmost regions report slowing home sales

residential construction and real estate marketthe picture was mixed, though most districts reported weak home sales.commercial construction and real estatethe performance is also different.

overall, economic activity is expected to remain stable or improve in most regions, but three regions expect economic activity to decline slightly.

the labor market is mixed, with companies reluctant to hire more but layoffs still rare

overall employment levels have remained stable or even risen slightly in recent weeks.enterprises in five regionsheadcount increased slightly, but in some areas companies reduced headcount by reducing work shifts and hours, abandoning job ads, or through natural attrition (such as retirement or resignation).layoffs remain rare

employers are becoming more selective, they are less willing to expand their workforce, mainly because of concerns about insufficient demand and uncertainty about the economic outlook. as a result, job seekers have a harder time finding jobs and take longer. with less competition for workers and lower employee turnover, businesses feel less pressure to raise wages.

overall,wage growth remains modest, consistent with the slowdown described in recent reports.skilled workers and workers with special skillsthere is still a shortage, and their wages have increased more sharply,union memberwages are also rising faster.

prices have risen slightly in recent weeks

overall, prices have risen slightly recently, but the increase is not large.three regionsthe report said sales prices rose only slightly.non-labor costs(such as raw materials, etc.) are mostly described asmild to moderate rise, and have eased overall, although one region noted that these costs have increased slightly. some regions notedshipping and insurance costsstill rising. in contrast,food, wood and concretecost pressures have eased in some regions.

looking ahead, many companies believe that price and cost pressures are likely to remain stable or ease further in the coming months.

after the beige book was released, the us dollar index dxy continued to fall during the day. the major us stock indexes also fell in the short term, with only the dow jones industrial average, which is home to blue-chip stocks, rising. the two-year us treasury yield and the 10-year base bond yield also fell in the short term.