news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

autumn typhoons are coming! today (september 4), this year's 11th typhoon "makar" has intensified explosively. it took less than four days from its formation to strengthening to a strong typhoon level. in the future, it will also strengthen rapidly in the coastal areas of south china, or turn into a super typhoon, and land on hainan or the coast of guangdong at its peak strength.why is "capricorn" so strong? which provinces will it bring strong winds and rainstorms to?china weather network will answer your questions one by one.

01

how strong is the autumn typhoon "capricorn"?

typhoon makar was formed on the evening of september 1, and it strengthened explosively during the day today (september 4), and it has been strengthened to a strong typhoon at 14:00. from the satellite cloud map, makar has a huge circulation, a relatively complete spiral cloud system, and the eye of the typhoon is clearly visible.

satellite cloud map of typhoon "makar" at 15:00 today.

"in the future, makar may strengthen again near the sea, and its intensity will reach that of a strong typhoon or even a super typhoon when it lands," said li ning, a meteorological analyst at china weather network. the central meteorological observatory predicts that makar will move northwestward, gradually increase in intensity, and will land in the coastal area from wanning, hainan to dianbai, guangdong in the afternoon of the 6th as a strong typhoon or a super typhoon, with the maximum wind speed near the center at 48-55 meters per second.

china weather network found through reviewing meteorological data from 1949 to 2023 that among the typhoons that landed in hainan, the top five in terms of intensity were typhoon no. 9 "wilmason" in 2014, typhoon no. 14 "marge" in 1973, typhoon no. 26 "kate" in 1955, typhoon no. 13 "joan" in 1970, and typhoon no. 18 "davi" in 2005.

xin xin, chief meteorological analyst at china weather network, said that according to the current forecast, the maximum wind speed in the center of "makar" where it makes landfall in the coastal area from wanning, hainan to dianbai, guangdong can reach 48-55 meters per second, with an intensity between typhoon "wilma" in 2014 and typhoon "davi" in 2005. it may be the strongest typhoon to affect or land in hainan in the past decade.

in addition, the leizhou peninsula in guangdong is also a potential landing site for "makar". the strongest typhoon that has landed in guangdong in september in history has a maximum wind speed of 50 meters per second near its center. if "makar" is locked in guangdong as its landing site, it may become the strongest typhoon to land in guangdong in september in history.

no matter where "makai" finally lands, it is likely to strengthen rapidly in the coastal areas of south china, reaching super typhoon level, and may become the strongest typhoon to land in my country this year. the strongest typhoon to land in my country before was this year's third typhoon "gemi", which landed in the coastal area of ​​nan'ao township, yilan county, taiwan province as a strong typhoon, with a maximum wind speed of 48 meters per second near the center when it landed.

02

why is capricorn so strong?

the most typhoons land in my country in august, and the strongest typhoons land in september. xin xin said that the typhoon path in august this year was relatively eastward, and no typhoons were generated in the south china sea, resulting in a lot of energy accumulated in the sea, which gave typhoon makar a huge potential for development.

xin xin introduced that the high sea temperature and small vertical wind shear in the direction of "makar"'s advance are conducive to maintaining the typhoon's warm core structure; after "makar" enters the south china sea, it will be closely integrated with the southwest monsoon, which will also provide a continuous source of energy for its development. the above factors are conducive to the strengthening of "makar" near the coast, and it will land at its peak intensity along the coast from northeastern hainan to southwestern guangdong.

in addition, autumn typhoons are often dominated by "tough guys". starting from the spring equinox, the sun's direct point moves from the equator to the tropic of cancer, heating the tropical oceans in the northern hemisphere. the heat of the seawater continues to accumulate, and the sea temperature usually reaches its highest from august to september. high sea temperatures are conducive to the formation of typhoons and the enhancement of their energy. at the same time, from the end of august to the beginning of september, cold air begins to become active, increasing the pressure gradient and the wind speed near the center of the typhoon, which is also conducive to the strengthening of the typhoon's intensity, and the probability of strong or super typhoons is higher.

03

which areas will experience the strongest winds and typhoon rains from "makar"?

typhoon makar is strengthening rapidly and making landfall with great intensity, bringing strong winds and rainstorms to the northern part of the south china sea and southern south china. today, the heavy rainfall brought by makar mainly occurred in the eastern part of hainan island and the southern coastal areas of guangdong, with moderate to heavy rainfall in some areas. li ning said,the core period of typhoon rain will arrive from the 5th to the 7thfrom the 8th to the 9th, there will still be heavy convective rainfall in southern south china.

from the perspective of rainfall progress, on the 5th, hainan island and the southern coastal areas of guangdong will experience heavy to torrential rain, with local heavy rainstorms. on the 6th, the rainfall in hainan island, guangdong and the southern coastal areas of guangxi will significantly intensify, with heavy to torrential rain generally occurring, and hainan island and the leizhou peninsula of guangdong may experience extremely heavy rainstorms. on the 7th, the heavy rainfall will move eastward to southwestern guangxi and southeastern yunnan, with heavy rainstorms or torrential rainstorms in some areas.

in addition to heavy rainfall, "makar" is also capable of producing strong winds. from the 4th to the 8th, there will be 8 to 10 winds in the central and northern south china sea, beibu gulf, qiongzhou strait, bashi strait, western coastal areas of guangdong, hainan island, and coastal areas of guangxi; the nearby sea areas where the center of "makar" passes will have 11 to 15 winds, with gusts reaching 16 to 17.

04

could the influence of “capricorn” exceed that of “davi”?

in terms of the future path and intensity of "makar", it is similar to typhoon "davi". in late september 2005, "davi" landed in wanning, hainan as a strong typhoon, with a maximum wind speed of 45 meters per second near the center. its impact range was large, its intensity was strong, and its speed was slow, which seriously affected hainan, guangdong, and guangxi. in particular, "davi" caused serious damage to local power facilities while sweeping across hainan island, causing a rare power outage across the province.

it is estimated that the maximum wind speed near the center of "makar" will reach 48-55 meters per second when it makes landfall, and its intensity may exceed that of "davi". residents along the coast of south china are advised to pay attention to the latest typhoon news released locally, prepare emergency items such as food, water, flashlights, and return water operation vessels to the port in time; it is best not to go out when the typhoon comes. if you are outdoors, do not avoid wind and rain near temporary buildings, billboards, large trees, etc., and evacuate to a safe area as soon as possible; pay attention to prevent various secondary disasters such as geological disasters, mountain torrents, urban and rural waterlogging, etc. that may be caused by heavy rainfall.

05

will there be more autumn typhoons in the future?

as the summer typhoons come to an end and the autumn typhoons come to the fore, typhoons are still active. the central meteorological observatory predicts that in the next 10 days, one or two more typhoons will form in the northwest pacific.1 may affect my country's southeastern coast around the 11th. the current forecast is far in the future and has great uncertainty, so the public is requested to stay tuned.

among autumn typhoons, most are "tough guys" because they are not only strong in themselves, but also join forces with cold air to create wind and rain. compared with summer typhoons, autumn typhoons have more complex and changeable paths and are more difficult to predict. the public is advised to pay attention to the latest forecast and warning information.