the conflict between lebanon and israel is escalating in multiple directions. experts: the possibility of a full-scale war is low
2024-09-02
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china youth daily and china youth network intern reporter li yueguo covid-19 reporter zhao anqi
over the past week, the already seriously deteriorating situation in the middle east has escalated in multiple directions. first, on august 25, hezbollah in lebanon and israel had the largest-scale exchange of fire since the current round of the israeli-palestinian conflict. then, on august 28, the israeli army launched a large-scale military operation in the northern part of the west bank of palestine, killing at least 10 palestinians. then, the ceasefire negotiations in gaza broke down. iranian deputy defense minister qureshi said that iran's response to israel was "unpredictable"...
there are signs that the situation in the middle east will further deteriorate and will continue for quite some time. will lebanon, israel and even the middle east slide into a full-scale war? many experts told china youth daily and china youth network reporters that there may be further conflicts between hezbollah in lebanon and israel, but the possibility of a full-scale war is low.
on september 1, thick smoke billowed from the village of kfar kila in southern lebanon, which was shelled by israel. since the outbreak of a new round of palestinian-israeli conflict in october 2023, there have been exchanges of fire almost every day in the lebanese-israeli border area.
lebanon and israel disagree on the scale and effect of the crackdown
on august 25, the largest-scale exchange of fire since the current round of israeli-palestinian conflict broke out between lebanon and israel, which marked a significant escalation of the situation in the middle east and also aroused strong concern from the international community about the direction of the situation in the middle east.
according to a statement issued by hezbollah on august 25, the group fired more than 320 rockets at 11 israeli military locations that day, and the first phase of the attack on israel has "ended successfully." hezbollah leader nasrallah said that day that the attack was a retaliation for israel's initial response to the assassination of hezbollah's important leader fuad shukur in late july.
on the other hand, the israeli military claimed that after detecting that hezbollah in lebanon was preparing to launch a "large-scale" attack, it launched a "preemptive" strike against hezbollah, and said that hezbollah's attempted attack on israel had failed.
hezbollah in lebanon refuted the israeli claim. nasrallah said in a speech that the attack on israeli targets that day was "as planned" and denied the israeli military's claim that the so-called "preemptive" strike was intended to prevent hezbollah from launching a larger-scale attack.
why do israel and hezbollah disagree on the scale and effect of the strike? wang zhen, a researcher at the institute of international studies of the shanghai academy of social sciences and executive director of the chinese society of middle east studies, said in an interview with china youth daily and china youth network, "for israel, it must form a strategic deterrent against the surrounding armed forces by increasing military counterattacks and re-establish its prestige in the middle east. as a non-state actor, hezbollah's military strength is not enough to support a large-scale confrontation with israel."
gao wanying, assistant researcher at the middle east institute of the china institutes of contemporary international relations, told china youth daily and china youth network reporters, "this time, the lebanese and israeli sides stopped fighting quickly and expressed great restraint, which revealed that the two sides were unwilling to engage in a full-scale war."
the united states has been involved in the lebanon-israel conflict
after being delayed for many years, the conflict between israel and lebanon has not only not been properly resolved, but has tended to intensify.
since the outbreak of a new round of israeli-palestinian conflict in october 2023, hezbollah and israel have been exchanging fire on the lebanese-israeli border almost every day, and the intensity has been increasing. the lebanese national news agency said that the attack on august 25 was the most violent air strike since the start of the israeli-lebanese conflict at the end of last year.
"the conflict between lebanon and israel did not escalate suddenly," said gao wanying. since the israeli airstrike on july 30 this year that assassinated hezbollah leader shukur in the southern suburbs of beirut, hezbollah has threatened to retaliate. israel has also been on high alert and maintained a posture of fighting.
in fact, at the end of july, after hamas leader haniyeh was "targeted and killed" by israel in the iranian capital tehran, iran also publicly expressed its intention to "retaliate" against israel.
the times of israel pointed out that the chief of staff of the iranian armed forces, mohammad hossein bagheri, said that the attack by hezbollah in lebanon was part of iran and its allies' "revenge" against israel. iran's response to israel's assassination of haniyeh in tehran was "inevitable."
gao wanying analyzed that iranian president pezerhiziyan has just come to power and his current policy is conservative and restrained. lebanon's hezbollah has always been regarded as a pro-iranian armed group in the region, and keeping it is the focus of iran's regional policy. therefore, once the conflict expands to threaten hezbollah's survival, iran will inevitably be involved. however, it is still unknown when and how iran will retaliate against israel.
compared with iran, the united states has in fact been involved in the lebanon-israel conflict. on august 26, pentagon press secretary ryder held a closed-door press conference and said that the united states provided some intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance support to israel to track the upcoming attacks by hezbollah in lebanon. on the same day, after meeting with visiting chairman of the joint chiefs of staff of the us army, charles brown, israel's chief of staff halevy said that israel is "strengthening cooperation with the united states to deal with challenges and threats in the middle east." he also said that israel will "continue to weaken hezbollah in lebanon" and "will not stop."
"lebanon's hezbollah has the idea of supporting hamas"
since the outbreak of the new round of israeli-palestinian conflict, the scale of casualties has exceeded that of all previous middle east wars. according to palestinian statistics, since october 2023, the israeli military's military operations in the gaza strip have killed more than 40,000 palestinians and injured more than 94,000. in addition, more than 10,000 people are missing in gaza. at the same time, a large number of israeli people have held rallies many times, demanding that the israeli government reach an agreement with the palestinian islamic resistance movement (hamas) as soon as possible to release the detained israelis as soon as possible.
it is worth noting that the timing of the outbreak of the large-scale conflict between lebanon and israel is also very delicate. on the day of the conflict, ceasefire negotiations in the gaza strip resumed in cairo, egypt, but no agreement was reached in the negotiations. neither the palestinian islamic resistance movement (hamas) nor israel agreed to the plan proposed by the mediator.
"at present, it seems that the lebanon-israel conflict may have an impact on the ceasefire negotiations in gaza." tian wenlin, professor at the school of international relations of renmin university of china and senior researcher at the institute of regional and country studies of renmin university of china, analyzed to the china youth daily and china youth network reporter that, on the one hand, in order to deal with the attacks of hezbollah in lebanon and avoid being "attacked from both sides" and fighting on two fronts, israel may have the intention to accelerate the end of the palestinian-israeli conflict; on the other hand, because its regional ally hezbollah in lebanon is attacking israel, hamas' attitude in the ceasefire negotiations may become tougher.
wang zhen analyzed that "in addition to retaliating against israel for assassinating shukur, an important leader of the organization, hezbollah in lebanon recently carried out large-scale attacks on israel, hoping to ease the tension between palestine and israel and support hamas by attacking israel."
source: china youth daily client
