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guan tao: why did the rmb rise sharply?

2024-09-02

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guan tao: loosening of foreign exchange settlement supports the rmb to return to the 7.0 era

note: this article was published in china business news on september 2, 2024.

source: pinglan guantao

at the end of july, the rmb exchange rate against the us dollar rose above 7.20 to 1 at home and abroad, entering the 7.10 era. however, it rose to the highest point of the year on august 5 and began to consolidate. before august 28, the rmb exchange rate central parity rate in china fluctuated in a narrow range of 7.11 to 7.15, and on august 13 it hit a new low of 7.1479 for the year; the domestic and foreign transaction prices fluctuated in a wide range of 7.1150 to 7.1850. since august 29, the central parity rate has only strengthened slightly, while the domestic and foreign transaction prices have suddenly gained strength again, both rising above 7.10 and entering the 7.0 era.

on august 30, the central parity rate closed at 7.1124, rebounding 0.3% for the whole month. the cumulative decline in the first eight months narrowed from a maximum of 0.9% to 0.4%, recovering nearly half of the lost ground. during the same period, the onshore rmb spot exchange rate (referring to the transaction price in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market at 4:30 pm) closed at 7.0881, rebounding 1.9% for the whole month, turning from a maximum decline of 2.5% in the first eight months to a cumulative appreciation of 0.1%; the offshore rmb exchange rate (cnh) closed at 7.0904, rebounding 1.9% for the whole month, turning from a maximum decline of 2.5% in the first eight months to a cumulative appreciation of 0.5%. so far, the onshore and offshore rmb transaction prices have recovered all the lost ground this year. the recent acceleration of the rmb's rise may be related to the further loosening of the exchange settlement.