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did the battle of kursk lose the gamble? the ukrainian army succeeded tactically, but suffered a huge strategic failure. the situation of the important hub red army city was precarious, and the ukrainian army was forced to send back for support, but the russian army only had the last 5 kilometers left. will this change the direction of the entire russian-ukrainian conflict?

the battle of kursk is still going on. from a tactical point of view, the ukrainian army has controlled thousands of square kilometers of territory in russia and has achieved a tactical victory. but from a strategic point of view, the ukrainian army has lost because the territory of kursk they occupied does not have much depth. moreover, the ukrainian army was unable to capture the important target, the kursk nuclear power plant. what's worse, in order to attack kursk, the ukrainian army drew troops from the donetsk line of defense, which is the main offensive direction of the russian army. therefore, with the failure of the ukrainian army's plan to save zhao from wei, the russian army made rapid progress on the red army city and other fronts.

judging from the current battle line, in the south of donetsk, the russian army has captured konstantinivka and controlled the entire kalivka area, which is only 5 kilometers away from the red army city. judging from this situation, the red army city battle will start this fall. in terms of population size, the red army city plus the twin cities next to it have a population of about 100,000, which is already a large city in ukraine. more importantly, the red army city is a key transportation hub, and capturing it will disrupt the entire supply system of eastern ukraine. moreover, the russian army can rely on this hub to launch an attack along the transportation line from at least four directions.

in addition, if the ukrainian army fails to defend the red army city, coal mining in pavlograd, located in the dnipropetrovsk region, will be severely affected, which will end ukraine's metallurgical industry and shut down the ukrainian thermal power plants that are still in operation. at the same time, the russian army can also go straight to the rear, cut off the transportation channels of the three major fortresses of the ukrainian army in donbass, constantinople, kramatorsk and slavyansk, and gradually disintegrate this steel defense line. moreover, capturing the red army city will allow the russian army to break through donbass and directly enter the dnipropetrovsk oblast. it should be noted that since the outbreak of the russian-ukrainian conflict, the russian army has never entered the state, which will bring great pressure to the kiev authorities.

under heavy pressure, ukrainian president zelensky could only admit that the current situation in red army city is not ideal. at the same time, the 15th brigade of the ukrainian national guard has reinforced seridovo, trying to prevent the russian army from seizing the outposts outside the red army city and avoid cutting the defense line in the red army city area from the middle. however, this 2,000-man force can hardly bring any help to the red army city defense line, and it came too late to stop the russian offensive. at present, the russian army has entered the parliament building in seridovo. if this stronghold can be captured, the red army city defense area can be divided into the kurakhov part and the urban part, and a three-sided attack can be carried out.

as for the kursk region, the ukrainian army is still wandering in the river valley, and its forward momentum has been curbed, so it can only attack on both sides. therefore, the russian army dared not to let the elite troops return to support, and just "let the water flow to raise fish". although russia's international reputation has been humiliated because its borders were breached, the situation has developed to this point, and it can only drag the ukrainian troops in kursk so that the russian elite can solve the donetsk front as soon as possible.