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it has to be said that putin currently seems to be quite interested in managing russia's neighboring countries, especially some of its neighbors in europe and asia.

text | haishangke

russian president putin is going to visit abroad again!

after the ukrainian army entered the kursk region of russia, putin visited azerbaijan on august 18. less than half a month later, when the ukrainian army had not withdrawn from russian territory, the kremlin not only announced that putin was about to visit a foreign country, but also planned to visit mongolia. what is going on?

putin photo: information

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you know, the difference between mongolia and azerbaijan is not only that azerbaijan was a soviet republic during the soviet period, while mongolia has never joined the soviet union, but also that mongolia is a signatory to the rome statute of the international criminal court.

theoretically, if putin enters mongolia at present, according to the international treaties signed by mongolia, putin should be arrested and sent to the international court of justice in the hague.

when putin announced his visit, the russian presidential press secretary peskov actually claimed that he was not worried that putin would be arrested by mongolia during his visit. the reason is that russia and mongolia have good relations and the russian side has made careful arrangements for putin's visit to mongolia.

peskov can say this, but it is also doubtful!

if putin's visit to mongolia is successful, it will be his first time to enter a signatory to the rome statute since the international criminal court issued an arrest warrant against him in march 2023 after the russia-ukraine conflict!

peskov photo: information

i still remember that the brics summit was held in south africa in 2023. before the summit, south africa said that putin might arrive in johannesburg to attend the meeting. but later it turned out that russia only sent foreign minister lavrov to lead the team to attend the meeting. the reason is that south africa is a party to the rome statute.

at that time, there were rumors that south africa would withdraw from the rome statute through a parliamentary vote, and then return to the rome statute through a parliamentary vote after the brics summit, which made it possible for putin to make the trip. in fact, there have been similar operations in history. but it is obvious that for south africa in 2023, this operation is too complicated. it should also be noted that some western forces that strongly support the ukrainian zelensky administration will also put various pressures on south africa to prevent it from doing so. what's more, the south african parliament is not at the mercy of the south african government.

as for putin, of course he also saw——

the flight from moscow to johannesburg will pass through europe, asia, africa, and many countries. if there is any mistake, it will be an unspeakable loss for both putin personally and the entire russian federation!

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so, why is putin so confident about going to mongolia now?

in hai shu's opinion, the most critical point is that mongolia has only two neighboring countries:

our northern neighbor is russia.

our southern neighbor is china.

if putin flies from moscow to ulaanbaatar, he does not need to go through a third country.you should know that when putin visited north korea and vietnam before, he actually flew over a third country, that is, china. china, north korea, and vietnam are not parties to the rome statute. in fact, putin also visited china. therefore, there is no problem with his visit to north korea and vietnam involving flying over china.

nowadays, flying directly from russia to mongolia is naturally no problem. i also analyzed this in the "sea passenger observation" video program broadcast on multiple platforms yesterday (august 31).

on september 3, 2014, putin visited mongolia and shed tears

while writing this article, uncle hai was reminded that exactly ten years ago, on september 3, 2014, putin visited mongolia and burst into tears!

on january 7, 2016, xinhuanet reprinted an article titled "the president's tears" that analyzed that putin closed his eyes and stretched out his left hand to wipe away tears when he heard the mongolian military band playing the russian national anthem. the article reads:

"interestingly, russian tv did not broadcast this clip, but careful media still discovered this detail in mongolian reports," and "when facing media inquiries, russian presidential press secretary peskov did not deny the fact that putin shed tears, but only said that his tears were caused by strong winds."

in mongolia, there is lonely smoke in the desert and the wind is whistling. will putin be affected by the strong wind during this visit?

this is certainly a highlight.

the article also wrote:

"some netizens lamented the 'lonely tears of a top hero', while others commented with understanding that 'crying does not mean weakness'. however, some western media interpreted putin's tears as 'showmanship', 'fear', 'pressure' and 'helplessness'. why did putin cry? perhaps only he himself knows the real answer."

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it has to be said that putin currently seems to be quite interested in managing russia's neighboring countries, especially some of its neighbors in europe and asia.among them are former soviet republics, as well as countries such as mongolia and north korea that did not join the soviet union but have close relations with the soviet union.

this is indeed worthy of attention.

in mid-august, putin visited azerbaijan

for example, in mid-august, putin visited azerbaijan. hai shu believes that this must be viewed in conjunction with the israeli-palestinian conflict. you know, israel killed haniyeh, the leader of the palestinian islamic resistance movement (hamas), in tehran, the capital of iran. as a result, iran vowed to retaliate.

iran's claim of retaliation is certainly not without reason. after all, israel carried out the assassination in tehran, the capital of iran. this is an infringement of iran's sovereignty.

but so far, iran's retaliation does not seem to have arrived as expected. instead, lebanon's hezbollah and israel have been bombarded.

and you know, there are two provinces in iran——

east azerbaijan province,

west azerbaijan province.

it borders the republic of azerbaijan.

in fact, the current iranian president pezhichyan is part azerbaijani.

what is the relationship between the israeli-palestinian conflict and the russian-ukrainian conflict? from putin's visit to azerbaijan, we can more or less analyze some of it!

it should also be noted that the collective security treaty organization convened by russia is itself a kind of alliance-like relationship. the collective security treaty organization states that if any country in the organization is invaded by foreign enemies, all members should provide military support.

the problem is that after the ukrainian army entered russia's kursk oblast, it seemed that the collective security treaty organization did not take any action at all.

of course, russia also found a good excuse for itself. it said that the attack by the ukrainian army was just a "terrorist attack" and not an invasion by foreign enemies. this means that russia, at least on the surface, does not want the members of the collective security treaty organization to intervene in the russian-ukrainian conflict.

at this time, it remains to be seen what exactly putin's intention is in going to mongolia.