on the eve of the humanoid robot blowout | xiong youjun: in the future, robots may be sold by weight, and more patience is needed now
2024-08-31
한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina
on the eve of the humanoid robot boomlast october, the ministry of industry and information technology (miit) issued the “guiding opinions on the innovation and development of humanoid robots”, which gave high expectations for the development of humanoid robots, saying that they are “expected to become a disruptive product after computers, smart phones, and new energy vehicles, which will profoundly change human production and lifestyle and reshape the global industrial development pattern.”humanoid robots are experiencing a transition from landing to mass production. red star capital interviewed a number of manufacturers and discussed with them the eve of the blowout of china's humanoid robot industry.
can run on stage "like a human". this is what "tiangong" showed in april this year, which was released by beijing embodied intelligent robot innovation center. at the time of release, "tiangong" had achieved the world's first pure electric drive full-size humanoid robot running anthropomorphically. at the world robot conference in august, "tiangong" also demonstrated new skills such as dancing, bowing, and taking things by following instructions.
"the first generation of 'tiangong' focused more on the legs. in the next step, we will continue to make more iterations in the coordination of the upper body, hands, eyes and brain, so that the robot can truly play its value." said xiong youjun, current general manager of beijing embodied intelligent robot innovation center.
xiong youjun has been in charge of many projects of the ministry of science and technology innovation fund and the national 863 program. in an exclusive interview with red star capital bureau and other media, he pointed out that china is the country most likely to quickly popularize humanoid robots, and robots may be sold by weight in the future, but at present, the outside world needs to be more tolerant and patient.
"tiangong" demonstrates its ability to navigate a variety of special terrains
the country will give priority to the popularization of robots
xiong youjun believes that there is no substitute relationship between humanoid robots and professional robots, but rather they complement each other.
"this round of progress in robots is actually driven by the progress of artificial intelligence technology. after chatgpt and the big model came out, the original dedicated artificial intelligence was transformed into general artificial intelligence. this is the trend of artificial intelligence development. the same is true for robots."
with the development of embodied intelligence, the industry also has a common expectation for humanoid robots, that is, to develop in the direction of integrated and general-purpose robots.
in xiong youjun's opinion, humanoid robots have wide adaptability. they can go to places and perform actions that humans can go to, but the current technological level is not high enough.
"but humanoid robots have made great progress in the past two years. many have already achieved fast walking and somersaults. if we give them a little more time and patience, they will make rapid progress."
once the technology advances to a certain level, the next issue will be “cost reduction.” “once the volume is increased, robots may be sold by the pound, just like the development trend of the internet and mobile phones.”
tesla (tsla.us) ceo elon musk predicts that humanoid robots will become the main force in the industrial field in the future, and their number is expected to exceed that of humans. at the same time, tesla's humanoid robots are also aimed at being sold to individuals, with an estimated price of $20,000. "china is the most likely place for this to happen first. just like electric cars were first promoted by tesla, but flourished in china," said xiong youjun.
humanoid robots can replace humans
but it’s still in early development
as a general-purpose multifunctional robot, humanoid robots have advantages in many areas. what are the most suitable application scenarios for them? xiong youjun believes that in theory, humanoid robots can achieve what humans can do in work scenarios.
"in 2030, china's labor force will be greatly reduced. even if you use a large number of industrial manipulators and a large number of special robots now, it still cannot make up for the labor shortage." xiong youjun pointed out that humanoid robots can play a role at that time. at the same time, xiong youjun mentioned that humanoid robots can replace many jobs that are harmful to humans, such as the chemical and pharmaceutical fields, which have a large number of toxic and harmful gases, and many inspection positions that require x-ray inspection.
"it's just that the technology has not yet reached that stage. once it does, the volume will increase quickly. musk also said that in the future the ratio of robots to humans will be 1:1 or even 2:1, and the number of robots will far exceed the number of humans."
regarding the areas where current technology urgently needs breakthroughs, xiong youjun believes that it is difficult to summarize them in one or two sentences. to date, humanoid robots are still in a relatively early stage of development.
"for example, the motion control technology of humanoid robots. although we have seen that many humanoid robots can do somersaults and run fast, there are still many stability, reliability and applicability issues that need to be solved before they can be used in ever-changing daily life or work scenarios."
in addition, although humanoid robots now have large models and embodied intelligence, their "brains" are not smart enough. it will take a long time for robots to develop natural interaction capabilities with humans, decision-making capabilities, and task planning capabilities.
xiong youjun mentioned that there are still many underlying core issues that need to be resolved. for example, in terms of embodied intelligence, the construction of data sets is very important. just as artificial intelligence technology is advancing rapidly, the development of embodied intelligence also requires a large amount of data, but this data is no longer just text and pictures, but also requires a large amount of operational data.
“because embodied intelligence is more about interaction with the physical world, it needs to fetch water, install, assemble, and move things, all of which involve a lot of operations and require a lot of behavioral data, which are scarce.” xiong youjun said that only after these data are built can the embodied intelligence model be well trained and the robot can truly have a smart “brain.”
pilot first, then iterate
it takes time to open up each scene
humanoid robots are on the eve of industrialization. xiong youjun noticed that many companies have begun to conduct pilot applications in some fields. "we need to be more tolerant. after all, humanoid robots are a very complex product. it is impossible to achieve success overnight. it must be developed slowly, from point to surface."
he believes that humanoid robots should first be piloted in a certain field, then gradually iterated, and then expanded and extended to other fields. this is also the inevitable law of industrial development.
"the logic of future industrialization should be industrial first, then commercial use, and finally life." xiong youjun told red star capital that industrial scenarios and life scenarios are completely different. in life, people expect humanoid robots to help with more housework. "but the family environment is actually very complicated. the first step should be care first, and then housework."
can the current accumulation of humanoid robots in industrial scenarios be transferred to other scenarios such as homes? xiong youjun believes that there is a gray area in the transition stage between various scenarios. it cannot be said that there is no connection at all, but it is not completely possible to migrate. as for the time period for the connection and transition between various scenarios, xiong youjun is still relatively optimistic.
red star news reporter wang tian
editor: deng lingyao
(download red star news and get a reward for reporting!)
