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in the first seven months, both the broad fiscal revenue and expenditure declined. how much room is there for policy tightening?

2024-08-30

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according to the ministry of finance, in the first seven months of this year, the national broad fiscal revenue (the sum of general public budget revenue and government fund revenue) was about 15.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 5.4%, of which july was down 8.3% year-on-year. the national broad fiscal expenditure was about 19.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 2%, of which july was up about 3.7% year-on-year; in the first seven months, the national broad fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by about 3.8 trillion yuan.

why have both broad fiscal revenue and expenditure declined since the beginning of this year?

many experts analyzed to the first financial daily that from the revenue side, the economic growth rate has slowed down since the beginning of this year, the price level has fallen, and the tax revenue has declined due to special factors such as the previous tax reduction and fee reduction policies. the sluggish real estate market and the continuous decline in local land sales revenue have caused a sharp decline in government fund revenue. under the principle of "spending based on revenue", the decline in revenue is bound to lead to limited expenditure growth. in addition, the issuance of local government special bonds in the first seven months was slow, and overall broad fiscal expenditure declined.

data from the ministry of finance show that in the first seven months of this year, national tax revenue fell by 5.4% year-on-year. domestic value-added tax, corporate income tax, personal income tax, urban maintenance and construction tax, vehicle purchase tax, etc. all declined to varying degrees. in the first seven months of this year, the state-owned land use rights transfer revenue in local government funds fell by 22.3% year-on-year.

relevant officials from the ministry of finance judged that in the next few months, as macroeconomic policies take effect, the economic recovery will continue to consolidate, and the impact of special factors will gradually subside, which will support the growth of fiscal revenue.