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the rmb surged again! the offshore rmb surged by more than 400 points. what happened?

2024-08-29

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after the market closed on the afternoon of august 29, the rmb started a sharp rebound, with the rmb exchange rate against the u.s. dollar breaking through the 7.10 mark in both the onshore and offshore markets.

among them, the offshore rmb exchange rate against the us dollar rose by more than 400 points during the day, and was reported at 7.08825 as of press time. the onshore rmb exchange rate against the us dollar rose by 345 points during the day, and was reported at 7.0945 as of press time.

in early august, the rmb experienced a surge. the rmb exchange rate suddenly soared that day, with the offshore rmb rising by more than 1,000 points against the us dollar.

according to the central bank's website, on august 29, 2024, the people's bank of china conducted a buyout transaction of open market business bonds by way of quantity bidding, and purchased 400 billion yuan of special treasury bonds from primary dealers in open market business. among them, the purchase volume of 10-year 24-renewal special treasury bonds 01 was 300 billion yuan, and the purchase volume of 15-year 24-renewal special treasury bonds 02 was 100 billion yuan.

according to cctv finance, on august 22, data released by the society for worldwide interbank financial telecommunication (swift) showed that in july 2024, in the global payment currency ranking based on amount statistics,the rmb remains the world's fourth most active currency, accounting for 4.74%. compared with june 2024, the total amount of rmb payments increased by 13.37%, while the total amount of all currencies payments increased by 10.29%.

in july 2024, based on international payments outside the eurozone, the rmb ranked fifth, accounting for 3.32%.this is the ninth consecutive month that the rmb has remained the world's fourth most active currency.

the data also shows that in july, in the payment amount ranking of major currencies, the us dollar, euro and pound sterling ranked top three with shares of 47.81%, 22.47% and 7.00% respectively.

meanwhile, in july,the rmb's share in cross-border trade finance business has reached 6%., exceeding the euro's 5.83% and second only to the us dollar.

according to the shanghai securities news, guan tao, global chief economist of boc securities, said that the divergence between china and the united states' economic cycles and monetary policies is showing a convergence trend, and the us interest rate cut will ease the pressure on the rmb exchange rate.

ubs recently said that it expects the us dollar to fall sharply in the coming months. taking into account factors such as the weakening of the us interest rate advantage over other parts of the world, the slowdown in us economic growth and consumer spending will weaken support for the us dollar, and it downgraded the us dollar to pessimistic.

from the perspective of internal factors, zhou maohua, a macro researcher at the financial markets department of china everbright bank, said that the domestic economy is in a recovery cycle, corporate profits are improving, the policy environment is friendly, and the market's bullish sentiment on rmb assets is gradually accumulating.