the "most incredible" thing in the russian-ukrainian conflict? zelensky: no more
2024-08-29
한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina
"russian natural gas is still being shipped to europe through ukraine." the associated press once called this the "most incredible" thing in the two and a half years of russia-ukraine conflict.
now, ukrainian president zelensky’s latest statement on august 27 means that this gas pipeline will be closed after it expires at the end of this year.
the ukrainian national news agency reported on august 27 that zelensky said at a press conference that day that ukraine would not extend its natural gas transit agreement with russia.
"the agreement with russia will not be renewed, period, end of the agreement," zelensky said. "if some of our european allies ask to continue, we can consider delivering gas from other suppliers."
zelensky also mentioned russian president vladimir putin's visit to azerbaijan last week, when media reported that putin might seek to supply gas to europe through azerbaijan as the russian-ukrainian gas transit agreement was about to expire.
russia and ukraine previously signed a five-year contract, which will expire at the end of this year. since the beginning of the year, all parties have been discussing whether the gas transmission agreement will be renewed.
russia's tass reported on august 27 that ukrainian prime minister shmygal said in march this year that ukraine is ready to continue transiting russian natural gas to europe through its territory after the expiration of the agreement, but does not intend to negotiate directly with russia.
with the ukrainian army's raid on russia's kursk oblast on august 6, some believe that ukraine's move shows that it has no intention of continuing the russian-ukrainian natural gas transit agreement. ing analysts told reuters on august 8 that if ukraine occupied a russian natural gas metering station, russia would likely cut off natural gas transportation.
bloomberg news quoted a source on august 12 as saying that russia's sudja gas metering station is under the control of the ukrainian army, and neither russia nor ukraine intends to stop supplying natural gas to europe through the sudja gas metering station. the report pointed out that ukraine is keen to be seen as a reliable partner of europe and hopes that its traders can use its huge natural gas storage facilities. "the country has good reasons to protect natural gas transportation."
screenshot of foreign media at suja natural gas measuring station
the associated press pointed out that during the more than two years of russia-ukraine conflict, europe imposed several rounds of sanctions on russia, but russian natural gas still entered europe through ukraine, which is enough to prove europe's dependence on russian energy.
now that ukraine has made it clear that it will not renew the russian-ukrainian gas transit agreement, how will european countries obtain natural gas? what other channels can gazprom (referred to as "gazprom") use to deliver natural gas to europe?
reuters said that in the past two years, most eu countries have reduced their dependence on russian gas. the main countries that previously sent gas through ukraine include austria, slovakia, italy, hungary, croatia, slovenia and moldova. most of austria's gas still passes through ukraine, but other countries have diversified their sources and taken measures to reduce demand. moldova purchased all its gas from europe last year, and only the de facto independent transnistria region is still using gazprom. croatia already imports very little, and after slovenia's contract with gazprom ended, imports have dropped to near zero.
according to reuters, if the ukrainian gas pipeline is closed, austria can import natural gas from italy and germany, hungary can also import russian natural gas from the "turkish stream" pipeline, and slovenia can import from algeria and other countries.
slovakia's state gas importer spp told reuters that russian gas could still enter europe via the turkish stream pipeline, bulgaria, serbia or hungary. however, these routes have limited capacity.
putin visited azerbaijan last week, when media reported that russia might want to continue supplying gas to europe through the gas pipelines from azerbaijan and turkey.
in june this year, an azerbaijani presidential adviser told reuters that the eu and ukraine had asked the country to discuss a gas transit agreement with russia, but refused to provide further details. however, analysts at energy aspects, a british energy information service, pointed out that as azerbaijan's domestic consumption increases, there is almost no spare capacity that can be delivered to europe.
before the conflict between russia and ukraine, the two countries reached a five-year agreement that expires in december 2024. under the agreement, russia agreed to deliver a certain amount of natural gas to europe through ukraine's pipeline system, which was built when both countries were members of the soviet union. gazprom profits from the sale of natural gas, while ukraine collects transit fees.
since then, russian natural gas has been extracted from siberia, passed through ukraine into the eu via the sudja gas metering station, and then transported to austria, slovakia and hungary. according to the associated press, in 2023, europe imported 15% of its natural gas from russia, of which about 3% entered europe via the sudja gas metering station.
according to reports, before the conflict, russia supplied about 40% of natural gas to europe through four pipeline systems: the "nord stream" in the baltic sea, belarus and poland, ukraine, and the "turkish stream" in the black sea. after the conflict began, russia shut down most of the pipelines that transport natural gas through the baltic sea, belarus and poland on the grounds that its request to trade natural gas in rubles was rejected. the "nord stream" pipeline was blown up in a sabotage operation in 2022.
currently, there are only two pipelines for russia to export natural gas to europe: one is the line that transmits gas to europe through ukraine via the suja natural gas measuring station in kursk oblast, russia; the other is the "blue stream" pipeline that supplies natural gas to the balkan-southern europe region via turkey.
if ukraine's gas pipeline is shut down again, russia's natural gas supply to europe will almost come to a standstill. according to reuters, if russia stops exporting at a price of $320 per 1,000 cubic meters, it will lose $4.5 billion a year.
source | observer.com
