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text/host li yang

from september 2 to 4, phoenix tv, phoenix.com and other institutions jointly organized the "phoenix bay area financial forum 2024" to be held in hengqin. government officials, experts and scholars, and industry elites from home and abroad were invited to discuss topics such as the construction of hengqin, guangdong and macao, the transformation of china's capital market, and the global economy. on the eve of the opening of the forum, phoenix finance and china fund news jointly launched the "bay area chronicles" series of interviews. this issue is an interview with yuan xin, professor of the school of economics of nankai university and vice president of the chinese population association.

recently, the ministry of civil affairs released the "civil affairs statistics for the second quarter of 2024". the marriage registration section shows that the number of marriage registrations nationwide in the first half of this year was 3.43 million, a decrease of 498,000 from 3.928 million in the same period last year. in the dialogue of "bay area chronicles", yuan xin explained that the main marriages now are the second half of the post-80s, the post-00s and the post-90s. the number of births is decreasing. generally speaking, as the number of people of marriageable age decreases, the number of marriages is declining in the long run.

yuan xin pointed out that from the 1980s to now, the sex ratio of the newborn population has been high for more than 40 years, resulting in a direct result that the total number of males born under the age of 45 in china is 34-35 million more than that of females. according to the marriageable age group of 20 to 40 years old, the number of births in the second half of the 80s and the first half of the 00s, where the sex ratio of the newborn population in china is the highest, is now in the marriageable age group. because of the innate imbalance of the sex ratio, some people are unable to get married, which is also known as the "dissolution of marriage" phenomenon.

in addition, yuan xin mentioned that while the phenomenon of "broken marriages" exists, the phenomenon of "unmarried" also coexists, that is, the number of people who actively choose not to marry is also increasing, and most of them are women. "if you compare the 1990 census with the 2020 census, the proportion of unmarried women aged 30-34 has increased from 0.6% to 9.3%, the proportion of unmarried women aged 35 to 39 has increased from 0.3% to 4.1%, and the proportion of unmarried women aged 40 to 49 has increased from about 0.15% to the current 1.5%-2.0%." in thirty years, a generation, the proportion of older "unmarried" women has increased more than 10 times.

at the same time, yuan xin believes that the increasing tolerance of society and families for marriage choices is also one of the reasons for the decline in the number of marriages. "in the past few years, it seemed normal for parents, grandparents, and grandparents to force marriages. now it has become abnormal, which shows that families and society are more tolerant of the diversity of marriages, such as singles and dinks."

when talking about the issue of young people's fertility, yuan xin said that the increase in fertility rate is a slow variable, which requires patience, confidence, determination and perseverance. how can young people dare to have children and be willing to have children? in his opinion, we must ask young people, "what conditions do they need to be willing to have children?"

in response to the question "why will there be a small rebound in the number of births in 2024", yuan xin mentioned that whether there will be a small rebound in the number of births in 2024 will not be concluded until the end of the year. there are currently two aspects that have a greater impact on the number of births in 2024. first, 2024 is the year of the dragon in the chinese zodiac, and chinese traditional customs like to give birth to dragon sons. the second is compensatory fertility after the epidemic. "from december 2022 to february 2023, there were more people with yang. after turning negative, the doctor's advice was that it is best not to get pregnant within 3-6 months after the yang turns negative. in addition, the pregnancy period is nine months, and the compensatory fertility rebound after the epidemic can only start from 2024." at the same time, yuan xin added, "this year will definitely be a little more than last year, but the regular increase will not be too much. for the increase in the number of births in the future, we cannot pin our hopes on a certain zodiac year, but should make long-term and unremitting efforts."

in 2023, the increase in the number of births in guangdong and its cities was 1.03 million, ranking first in the country. yuan xin said that the high fertility rate in guangdong is normal, and further explained the reasons. first, guangdong province has a large population and is the province with the largest number of migrant workers in my country. second, guangdong is at the forefront of china's reform and opening up, with particularly rapid economic development and affluent life. moreover, after guangdong quickly became wealthy, some traditional cultures were preserved very well. therefore, cultural changes such as fertility in guangdong are slower than economic changes, and after becoming wealthy, the pressure of childbirth and raising children is relatively small.

regarding the issue of maternity leave, yuan xin also gave his own opinion - it is not recommended to extend maternity leave excessively. although extending maternity leave is beneficial for parent-child activities, building good family relationships and raising children, it increases the probability of women completely interrupting their employment. if maternity leave is extended too long, it may cause women's temporary interruption of employment to become permanent interruption of employment. women will completely leave the workplace and become full-time housewives, becoming appendages of the family and must rely on the family to survive.