After the exchange of fire, Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon quickly entered a state of easing. US, Israeli and Lebanese experts: Both sides entered a mode of preventing the escalation of the war
2024-08-26
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According to Xinhua News Agency on August 25, Lebanon's Hezbollah announced on the 25th that it would launch a large-scale attack on Israel that day in retaliation for Israel's assassination of the organization's senior military commander Fuad Shukur. Israeli Defense Minister Galant announced that Israel would enter a 48-hour state of emergency.
Some analysts believe that Hezbollah's first phase of retaliation did not target Israeli civilian sites or public infrastructure, and the rockets it used did not cause much damage to Israel, and the attack was not enough to trigger a large-scale war. Israeli Foreign Minister Katz said on the 25th that the Israeli army attacked Lebanon after discovering that Hezbollah planned to launch a large-scale attack on Israel, and that Israel was "exercising its right to self-defense" and "not interested in a full-scale war."
▲Israel said that some missiles launched from Lebanon were intercepted
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later stressed at a security cabinet meeting that Israel will continue to adhere to the principle of "whoever hurts us, we will hurt them." "We are striking Hezbollah in Lebanon in an astonishing and devastating way... This is another step towards changing the situation in northern Israel and allowing people to return home safely. I reiterate that this will not be the end of the incident."
There are also reports that after a sudden and fierce exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah, the situation quickly entered a state of de-escalation. Many experts believe that it is currently observed that both sides have sent signals that they do not want the conflict to escalate into a wider war.
Israel 'will not cross the border'
Hezbollah 'suggests it's over for now'
Some analysts said that although both sides claimed success in the operation, they also expressed their willingness to temporarily end the armed conflict. Hezbollah announced on social media that the "first phase of revenge" against Israel had been successfully completed.
In a speech, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that the use of drones and missiles to successfully attack Israeli intelligence agencies, and said that if the results of the attack are satisfactory, the attack will be stopped. If the operation fails, Hezbollah reserves the right to respond later.
▲Lebanese people watched the televised speech of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah on the 25th
Israeli Defense Minister Galant said he had a conversation with U.S. Defense Secretary Austin and "discussed the importance of avoiding an escalation of the situation in the region." Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared on the afternoon of the 25th that the incident in the morning "is not the end of the story." But by then, life in Israel had basically returned to normal.
Some analysts pointed out that the two sides quickly entered a mode of preventing the escalation of the war. Ehud Yari, a researcher in Israel at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a US think tank, said that Israel carried out a preemptive strike based on intelligence, but "will not cross the line"; and Hezbollah seemed to have sent a signal of moderation, "implying that it is over for the time being."
By experts:
Hezbollah can launch 3,000 missiles a day
Mohammed Hajj Ali, deputy director of studies at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said the limited losses on the Israeli side were a clear sign that Hezbollah wanted to control the conflict.
Hezbollah in Lebanon issued a statement saying that the organization fired more than 320 rockets at 11 Israeli military locations, and the first phase of the attack on Israel has "ended successfully". The IDF said that Hezbollah launched about 210 rockets and about 20 drones from Lebanon to northern Israel. Some rockets were intercepted, some hit the target and caused damage, and some fell in open areas.
▲A damaged building in northern Israel
But in fact, Hezbollah's military strike capability is more than that. According to a three-year study released by Israel's Reichman University's Counterterrorism Research Institute in September last year, Hezbollah can actually launch 3,000 missiles a day and maintain this frequency for up to three weeks. The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US think tank, estimates that Hezbollah has 120,000 to 200,000 missiles and rockets. Its briefing on Hezbollah's rocket capabilities released in May stated that "detecting and destroying Hezbollah's rocket and missile capabilities requires a huge reconnaissance strike force."
Danny Sitrinovich, former head of the Israeli military's Iran branch and current researcher at the Tel Aviv Institute for National Security Studies, said that while both sides may show a willingness to go to war to maintain deterrence, a full-scale war is not expected in the short term. Both sides may be satisfied with the results of their respective strikes on the 25th.
“They are willing to risk escalation to balance deterrence, but I don’t think there will be a war,” Sitrinovich said. “Right now, everyone is satisfied.”
Former Israeli official:
If the current situation of daily attacks does not change, the situation will remainpossibleupgrade
Some analysts point out that a full-scale war would be catastrophic for both sides, so Israeli leaders, especially Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is in trouble in domestic politics, and Lebanon's Hezbollah, may be unwilling to choose this path.
However, due to the assassination of former Hamas political bureau leader Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran's "revenge warning" has not yet been fulfilled, so the situation in the Middle East is still not optimistic. Chuck Freilich, former Israeli deputy national security adviser, pointed out that if the current situation of daily tit-for-tat attacks does not change, the situation may still escalate further.
Some believe that a war between Israel and Hezbollah is inevitable. Amir Avivi, head of an Israeli security think tank and a former senior military official, said that despite the signals from both sides on Sunday to avoid escalating the conflict, a war between Israel and Hezbollah is still inevitable and imminent because refugees in northern Israel cannot return home.
Some 60,000 residents of Israel's northern border region, who have been forced to flee their homes for a long time due to Hezbollah rocket and missile attacks, are criticizing the Netanyahu government.
Red Star News reporter Deng Shuyi compiled Xinhua News Agency (Wang Zhuolun, Xie Hao, etc.)
Editor Yang Ran Responsible Editor Wei Kongming
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