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Last weekend, Ke Wenzhe announced for two consecutive days that he would find time to hold another press conference this week to "clarify all doubts" about the case. While apologizing again, he emphasized that "as the head coach, of course I must bear the greatest responsibility and will not evade it."

The case of false political donations for the 2024 "general election" by Taiwan People's Party Chairman Ko Wen-je continues to rage. Although the then-secretary-general of the campaign headquarters, Huang Shanshan, was suspended for three years, the party is still seeing continued losses.

Last weekend, Ke Wenzhe announced for two consecutive days that he would find time to hold another press conference this week to "clarify all doubts" about the case. While apologizing again, he emphasized that "as the head coach, of course I must bear the greatest responsibility and will not evade it."

This statement also led to speculation from the outside world, whether it means that Ko Wen-je may resign as the chairman of the People's Party as early as next Monday (26th)? In an interview with the Taiwan Herald reporter, Taiwan current affairs commentator Niu Zexun said that he suggested that Ko Wen-je temporarily resign as the party chairman to avoid being tortured by the DPP and to prevent "small grass" (referring to supporters of the People's Party) from continuing to leave. "But will Ko Wen-je resign in the end? This decision is not easy."

Will Ko Wen-je resign as party chairman this week?

Will Huang Kuo-chang or Tsai Bi-ru take over temporarily?

"Ko Wen-je and the People's Party's crisis management was unsatisfactory, even a complete failure." Niu Zexun pointed out that the crisis public relations press conference on August 12 made at least two major mistakes.

First, they did not master the principle of immediate handling. Since the false accounting case broke out on August 6, it took almost a week to come forward to explain. Various unfavorable information was overwhelming online and offline. Information unfavorable to the People's Party dominated the online community, and the public had formed a negative stereotype of it. It was difficult to convince the public again.

Secondly, this press conference did not show the responsible attitude of Ko Wen-je and the People's Party, nor did it clearly punish those who failed to perform their duties, let alone offer an effective follow-up prevention plan. The outside world only saw the division of labor and blame-shifting, and even the "aftermath team" was not established until after the press conference. This press conference has become a matter of adding fuel to the fire.

What will the People's Party do next? Public opinion on the island believes that Ko Wen-je must either resign as party chairman or "clean up the political entourage." These are the only two options for him and the People's Party.

Niu Zexun believes that Ke Wenzhe's resignation as party chairman is a responsible and effective way to stop the bleeding, and it is also the only way to survive. If Ke can humbly and delicately explain the reason for his resignation, on the one hand, he can appease the "small grass" and prevent the loss of supporters, thereby consolidating the base; on the other hand, he can also avoid being tortured by the DPP for this case.

As for who will take over as the chairman of the People's Party after Ko Wen-je resigns, Niu Zexun believes that both Tsai Bi-ru, the founding member of the party, and Huang Kuo-chang, the leader of the People's Party's public opinion body, are qualified. The former, as a former core staff member, can accurately judge Ko's attitude; the latter was not injured in the false accounting case and has a strong ability to create topics. Choosing an acting party chairman can keep the party affairs running.

As for the path of "clearing the emperor's side", Niu Zexun believes that "it may not work". The main target is now Huang Shanshan, but from the fact that Ko Wen-je did not ask Huang to resign as a legislator and continued to let Huang be in charge of the "aftermath team", Ko may be using Huang Shanshan to balance Huang Kuo-chang's power; secondly, Ko still has a considerable degree of trust in Huang Shanshan and wants to use Huang as a firewall in the storm of false political donation accounts; thirdly, Huang Shanshan has a certain network of influence in the People's Party, and if Huang is "killed", it may cause more disputes in the party. Therefore, Ko's "protecting Huang" actually has a certain pattern to follow.

Ko Wen-je also announced last weekend that he would hold a press conference this week to "clarify all doubts" about the case. Moreover, he emphasized that "as the head coach, I must bear the greatest responsibility and will not evade it." This statement was interpreted by the outside world as "Has Ko Wen-je decided to resign as party chairman?" Niu Zexun believes that it may not be easy for Ko Wen-je to make this decision.

Ke Wenzhe has three more major cases

Can't rule out being sentenced to prison

As the saying goes, when it rains, it pours. From the 7-year and 4-month sentence of former Hsinchu City Mayor Gao Hongan to Ke Wenzhe's 2024 "election" political donation fraud case, it is no exaggeration to describe the People's Party's current situation as "on fire".

What is even more worrying for the People's Party and the "little grass" are the three major corruption cases during Ko Wen-je's tenure as mayor of Taipei, which are currently being investigated by the DPP authorities: the Jinghua City case, the Beitou Shilin Science Park case, and the Taichi Kuang case.

In particular, in the Jinghuacheng case and the Beitou Shilin Science Park case, Ko Wen-je was suspected of protecting industry players and falsifying meeting records. The Taipei District Prosecutor's Office listed Ko Wen-je as a defendant for corruption in May and has interviewed relevant personnel one after another. Because of the involvement of Shin Kong Life Insurance, the family of Wu Xinying, Ko's running mate in the 2024 "election", rumors are flying. Who can guarantee that Ko Wen-je will not be sentenced to prison in the end?

Li Zhenghao, a political commentator on the island who leans towards the green side, said that the two key meeting records of the Beitou Shilin Science Park case, which were "personally convened", "personally signed" and "personally instructed" by Ko Wen-je, "will become a super-major case that is most likely to convict Ko Wen-je of the crime of profiteering."

A DPP official said that although the storm of political donation fraud is gaining momentum, the impact on Ko Wen-je is mostly image damage, and it will not directly affect Ko Wen-je at the judicial level. Ko Wen-je's real crisis is still the three major cases during his tenure as mayor of Taipei. In addition, the DPP has done a sandbox simulation and determined that the investigation of the Jinghuacheng case is progressing the fastest and the situation is the most unfavorable to Ko. The Beitou Shilin Science Park case will also hit Ko Wen-je hard.

Regarding whether Ko Wen-je will be sentenced in the future, Niu Zexun said that "it is impossible to predict at this moment."

Some commentators on the island pointed out that the outbreak of the People's Party's series of scandals is more like a "political hunt" carefully planned by the Democratic Progressive Party. The Democratic Progressive Party will definitely pursue Ko Wen-je. As long as Ko Wen-je is defeated, the votes that originally flowed to the People's Party will flow back to the Democratic Progressive Party. Once Ko Wen-je is sentenced, the People's Party will inevitably accelerate its bubble, and its so-called "third force" will be just a flash in the pan like the People First Party and the New Party.