news

​What is supposed to come will eventually come.

Iran is still holding back, but Hezbollah can no longer hold back. On August 25, the most intense war in years broke out between Israel and Hezbollah.

There are flashes of swords and bloody killings, but it is also very dramatic.

According to Israel.

1. In the early morning of August 25, the Israeli military intelligence department reported that Hezbollah's attack on Israel was imminent. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah had previously vowed that Israel targeted and eliminated Hezbollah leader Shukur, and they "did not know what red line they had crossed."

2. The Israeli army immediately dispatched about 100 fighter jets to launch a fierce air strike in Lebanon. According to the Israeli army, the Israeli army launched air strikes on more than 40 Hezbollah rocket launch sites, destroyed thousands of rocket launchers aimed at Israel, and "destroyed and prevented a larger-scale attack on Israel."

3. Hezbollah then launched an attack on Israel. According to Hezbollah, this was the "first phase of the operation" in retaliation for Israel's assassination of Shukur. A total of 320 Katyusha rockets and a series of drones were launched at Israel, hitting 11 Israeli military targets.

4. Israel immediately activated the Iron Dome system to intercept Hezbollah's attack. In Israel, the alarm continued; in the sky, rockets and interceptors drew beautiful arcs. According to the Israeli army, Hezbollah launched about 200 rockets that day, but all drones were intercepted by the Israeli army.

5. Losses. Hezbollah claimed that three people were killed in the Israeli airstrike. Israel claimed that after a Hezbollah drone was intercepted, fragments of the Iron Dome system accidentally hit an Israeli patrol boat, killing one soldier. In addition, an Israeli chicken farm was hit.

It is worth noting that the Israeli army claimed that it launched a preemptive attack, thus stopping a large-scale offensive; Hezbollah refuted Israel's preemptive claim as "groundless" and that Hezbollah positions had not been attacked before the attack.

All parties dare not be careless.

On August 25, although it was still Sunday, the Israeli cabinet held an emergency meeting at 7:00 a.m. Israeli Defense Minister Galant announced that Israel would enter a state of emergency for the next 48 hours. Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion International Airport was temporarily closed.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared:"We are determined to do everything possible to defend our country, to bring the inhabitants of the North back home safely, and to continue to uphold a simple principle: whoever hurts us, we will hurt him."

The Lebanese caretaker government also immediately convened an emergency meeting, emphasizing the need to prevent the situation from escalating further. Caretaker Prime Minister Mikati said:"First, we must stop Israel's aggression against Lebanon and implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701 (on the situation in Lebanon and Israel)."

The news was immediately reported to US President Biden.

According to the White House, Biden is closely following the development of the situation and continues to support Israel's right to self-defense. The US Secretary of Defense immediately called the Israeli Defense Minister to express support, and the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff will also visit Israel later.

Hamas issued a statement praising Hezbollah's counterattack that day as a "slap in the face" to the Israeli government - this sent an important message to Israel that its terrorism and crimes against the Palestinian and Lebanese people will not go away without a response, and Israel will not achieve its goals and aggressive plans.

What happens next?

Here are some of my rough personal judgments.

1. Large-scale conflicts are expected to come to an end.

Don't forget Hezbollah's statement: this is the first phase of retaliation, the mission has been accomplished, and Hezbollah has no intention of launching further attacks.

Although Netanyahu declared that "what happened today is not the end", Israel also made it clear that it does not seek a full-scale war.

Both sides need a step up.

Israel assassinated Shukur, so Hezbollah could not fail to retaliate. Israel is even less likely to show weakness in the face of Hezbollah's attacks.

The current situation is dramatic, but just right.

Hezbollah launched a massive attack that killed Israeli soldiers and could claim a major victory; Israel launched a preemptive strike that destroyed a large number of rocket systems and intercepted all drones and could also claim a major victory.

Moreover, I saw that some pro-Israel social media outlets also mocked that Hezbollah's large-scale attack only succeeded in attacking the chicken farm.

This is the realm of cognitive warfare, and everyone is proud of the current results.

Face is very important in the Middle East.

2. The asymmetry of power in the Middle East is even more evident.

In the Middle East, Israel is truly invincible.

Gaza can bomb wherever it wants, and Lebanon can kill whomever it wants. Even in Iran, the assassination of Hamas’ top leader Haniyeh in Tehran was generally recognized by the outside world as being done by Israel’s Mossad.

In the conflict on August 25, Israel took the initiative and dispatched 100 aircraft to carry out indiscriminate bombing, disrupting Hezbollah's position.

In similar conflicts, other countries often wait for the other side to "fire the first shot"; but Israel never does that. If I sense that you are about to pull the trigger, I will fire a round at you in advance.

Of course, behind Israel's super strength is the strong support of the United States. The United States not only provides money, guns and intelligence, but also fully mobilizes the US military to help Israel intercept and deter Iran and other forces.

The weapon of criticism cannot replace the criticism of weapons. In the Middle East, Israel's super strength is destined to be tough and not to compromise easily, preferring to repay blood with blood.

But the more you refuse to compromise, the deeper the hatred.

Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, combined, are no match for Israel in strength, but they have a larger population, more land, and weapons that are low-tech but powerful enough to threaten Israel.

Israel is also in turmoil today.

3. Next, it’s Iran’s turn.

I don't know whether Hezbollah informed Iran before launching the attack.

Common sense would deduce that they were informed, after all, Iran is Hezbollah's biggest supporter. But it is also possible that they were not informed, this time it was Israel that took the initiative, and Hezbollah would be in disgrace in the Middle East if it did not launch another attack.

But this also puts Iran in a difficult position.Even Hezbollah can be so angry. Can you swallow this anger when Iran is insulted and hurt?

Iran actually wants to be patient.

After all, the new government has just been established and does not want to start a big war. Getting involved in a large-scale war is also a huge risk for the Iranian regime. Therefore, we have seen that Iran once stated that if there is a ceasefire in Gaza, it can refrain from retaliating against Israel.

But there was no ceasefire in Gaza, and Israel continued to fight; Hezbollah could not hold back, and fighting raged on the Israel-Lebanon border.

If Iran simply stands idly by, it would no longer be Iran.

Next, it is about how Iran will retaliate.

In the worst case scenario, Iran launches a large-scale attack, Israel then retaliates, and Hezbollah, the Houthis and many Iraqi militias take action together, which would lead to a Middle East melee.

The best case scenario is actually similar to the Hezbollah attack, where Iran launches a large-scale attack (mainly drones, a small number of missiles), Israel intercepts most of them, and only a few that slip through the net hit some unimportant targets...

Both sides understood each other's intention and backed down, thus starting a new round.

Don't think this is impossible, this is the Middle East. What the Middle East lacks the least is blood, killing, gunfire, and tacit understanding after giving enough face.

After all, a large-scale war would be detrimental to Iran, the United States, and even more disastrous to Israel.

But what if a gun goes off accidentally and cannot be controlled, or if someone breaks the rules and overturns the table? That would create a new plot and new risks.

The only thing we can be sure of in the Middle East is that there are too many uncertainties.

The play must start with the prologue, but the prologue is not the climax.