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On August 6, Ukrainian troops crossed the border into Kursk Oblast in southern Russia

August 25th, today marks the 20th day of the Ukrainian army's large-scale invasion of Russian territory.

On August 6, a Ukrainian armored force crossed the border into Russia, launching the Battle of Kursk to attack Russian territory.

This is the third year since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The Ukrainian regular army has invaded Russian territory for the first time, launching the Ukrainian version of the "border self-defense counterattack war."

In the 20 days since then, the Ukrainian army has occupied more than 1,300 square kilometers of land and nearly 100 settlements in Kursk Oblast in southern Russia, and continues to attack in all directions, directly threatening Russia's Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kursk Oblast.

Some foreign media quoted Russian officials and Russian military bloggers as saying that while the Ukrainian army was advancing in Kursk Oblast, it also entered the Bryansk region adjacent to Kursk.

Meanwhile, Russia's Belgorod Oblast, which borders Kursk, has declared a federal state of emergency, and there are continued reports of Ukrainian drone attacks in the border area.

It can be assumed that the Ukrainian army is currently directly attacking Russia's Kursk Oblast and simultaneously attacking the two adjacent regions of Bryansk and Belgorod Oblast.

August 24 is Ukraine's Independence Day. On this day in 1991, Ukraine broke away from the Soviet Union and declared independence.

Ukrainian President Zelensky delivered a video speech on the same day, saying that Russia wants to destroy Ukraine, but if the war returns to their own home, Russia will know what revenge and the pain of being invaded are.

Zelensky claimed that his video speech was recorded in the Ukrainian-Russian border area.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered an Independence Day speech on August 24, claiming that the war had returned to Russian territory. He recorded his speech on the border of the Ukrainian counterattack in Kursk

Yesterday, China News Network published an article titled "Who won? Six questions about Ukraine's "blitzkrieg"". Regarding the Ukrainian army's attack on Kursk, Russia on August 6, the first question was:Why is the Russian army's defense empty?

The article analyzed that Russia had indeed underestimated Ukraine's "blitzkrieg". It was reported that a few weeks before the battle, the Russian commander of the Kursk defense sector noticed the Ukrainian army's unusual movements and reported the situation, but it did not attract the attention of the Russian military's top brass.

French military expert Audran pointed out that since the spring of 2022, the 245-kilometer border between Kursk and Ukraine has been relatively calm, so the Russian side relaxed its vigilance and only deployed a small number of border guards and national guards in the area, with poor equipment. As a result, the Russian army's defense line, which was empty of troops, was quickly breached, and the destruction of key bridges leading to the war zone delayed the Russian army's counterattack.

at the same time,The Ukrainian army was well prepared before the warUS media revealed that Ukraine had been planning a cross-border attack on Russia, and that "it had been discussed internally for more than a year". After selecting Kursk as the breakthrough point, the Ukrainian army secretly assembled 6 to 8 brigades of tens of thousands of soldiers and a large number of heavy weapons by means of breaking up large forces into smaller units and wearing civilian clothes.

On August 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting and said that the Ukrainian army's attack on Russia's southern territory of Kursk was a "large-scale provocation"

A few days ago, China National Radio interviewed the famous Professor Jin Yinan on this issue. Professor Jin believes that the Kursk region attacked by the Ukrainian army is a region with very weak defense in Russia.Russia considers "dormant war zone"”，I think Ukraine is not capable of launching an attack in this direction.Therefore, the forces deployed locally are mainly border guards and Russian National Guards, and their ability to resist the Ukrainian army is limited.

Jin Yinan admitted that it would take time for Russia to mobilize military forces to such a "dormant war zone" and build a combat command post.

Regarding comments that Ukraine's pushing the war to Russian territory is a "big gamble" by Zelensky, Jin Yinan believes that Ukraine's main purpose in doing so is to "exchange land for land" and try to increase bargaining chips in future negotiations by occupying land on the Russian border. This means that the Ukrainian army intends to stay in Kursk Oblast for at least a period of time to show its presence.

Professor Jin's analysis is basically correct, but his suggestion that Kursk is considered a "dormant war zone" by Russia is very funny. Is there such a thing as a "dormant war zone" in a place where two countries are at war and a cross-border strike just took place?

More importantly, Professor JinUnderestimating the significance of the Ukrainian army's launch of the Battle of Kursk。

This battle actually marks a major turning point in the three-year Russo-Ukrainian war, marking the transition of the war from Russia attacking Ukraine and Russia and Ukraine being in a military stalemate to Ukraine attacking Russia.

In August 2024, the direction of this war changed, the phase of the war changed. These are decisive changes.

Russian-Ukrainian war map

The last sentence of the China News Network article "Who won in the end? Six questions about Ukraine's "blitzkrieg"" asks how the war situation will evolve in the future?

The article said that in the long run, the subsequent evolution of the war situation may not be as Ukraine wishes. Regarding Ukraine's attempt to force Russia to "return to the negotiation table", Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has made it clear that any negotiations are impossible at present; regarding the Ukrainian army's attempt to divert the tiger away from the mountain, the Russian army has not only failed to withdraw its main force from the battlefield in eastern Ukraine to support Kursk, but has instead launched a continuous fierce attack on the eastern front to regain the initiative on the battlefield. "At the same time, the Ukrainian army used its precious reserve forces to attack Kursk, "which may eventually lead to a trap for itself."

If Professor Jin Yinan underestimated the significance of the Ukrainian army's launching of the Battle of Kursk, the comments on China News Network gave a pessimistic answer to the future of the Ukrainian army's blitzkrieg on Kursk. Such analysis and comments are in line with the main theme.

What does the author of this article think?

Personally, I think that from the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin characterized the Ukrainian army's attack on the Russian mainland as a "terrorist attack", the Russian authorities' announcement of an anti-terrorism state of emergency in the three southern border states, and the Russian Ministry of Defense's announcement of the establishment of three local corps in the name of the three southern Russian states, it can be considered that Russia is preparing to counter the Ukrainian army's attack in a long-term and attritional manner.

This not only means that the war between Russia and Ukraine over Kursk Oblast will be prolonged, but also means:Putin has accepted the harsh reality that the war will be fought on Russian soil。

In fact, this is already the most reasonable response that Russia can take. It is unrealistic to expect a miracle soldier to descend from the sky or to drive the Ukrainian army out of Russia in one fell swoop.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian decision-makers are preparing or have already decided to fight this war unswervingly, a war involving all the people and the whole country, in a race of consumption and time with Ukraine and the West behind Ukraine, forcing Ukraine and the United States and the West to finally accept the final result of negotiations with Russia and a ceasefire.

Putin, can he win in the end?

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