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Source: Wugu Finance

Entering 2024, a new differentiation trend has emerged in the liquor industry, which is different from the differentiation momentum in the past few years. On the one hand, the sales of mass products are good, even exceeding expectations, but on the other hand, high-end and mid-high-end liquors have shown a significant decline in sales, and prices continue to shrink. Even famous liquors such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Langjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Guotai Liquor, and Yanghe Shares are no exception.

As the price of Feitian Moutai continued to fall, Kweichow Moutai finally introduced a series of price stabilization measures, such as stopping shipments, but the effect was not obvious. Under this circumstance, liquor stocks including Kweichow Moutai continued to hit new lows, and a large number of investors were deeply trapped.

Zhu Danpeng, a food industry analyst, believes that there are deep-seated reasons for the continued decline in Moutai's price. There is a "rejection" of people's reduced comfort after drinking liquor, and the rise of entertainment activities such as egg-throwing before and after meals, which has led to a continuous decline in the rigid demand for liquor among wine lovers. "Of course, under the pressure of the macro-economy, the willingness, confidence and ability of liquor consumption as a whole are continuing to decline, which is the fundamental reason for the downward trend in Moutai's price."

Liu Chang, chief analyst of food and beverage at Huafu Securities, believes that there may be a certain mismatch between supply and demand in the short term, leading to price fluctuations. On the one hand, the demand side is still weak and has not returned to normal levels; on the other hand, on the supply side, the supply of Moutai has increased this year.

"The price drop and slow sales of high-end and mid-high-end liquors are caused by the insufficient consumption power of the entire liquor industry. To put it bluntly, the opening rate of high-end and mid-high-end liquors has dropped sharply. This is caused by the overall environment and is not something that liquor companies can control." Kang Dingping, an analyst in the fast-moving consumer goods industry, believes that if consumption power cannot be improved, high-end and mid-high-end liquors will have to go through a tight period for some time. If high-end and mid-high-end liquors still perform poorly during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, it means that high-end and mid-high-end liquors have fully entered the "weak cycle" era.