Drinking Horses in Kursk, When Will the Ukrainian Army Stop Fighting? | Hot Topics of the Week
2024-08-24
한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina
Today is Ukraine's Independence Day. It has been nearly 20 days since the Ukrainian army invaded Russia's Kursk region on the 6th of this month. How is the situation of the two armies now, and how far are the two sides from a truce and returning to the negotiation table?
Two armies face off
Ukraine has been on the defensive since Russia launched an offensive in the Kharkiv region in May. On August 6, Ukraine attacked Kursk Oblast on the Russian border. Ukrainian President Zelensky said on the evening of the 19th that the Ukrainian army controlled more than 1,000 square kilometers of land in Kursk Oblast, covering 92 settlements. On the evening of the 21st, he added that the Ukrainian army was continuing to fight and had controlled some areas, and urged Western allies to actively supply weapons and ammunition.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would resolutely respond to Ukraine's series of provocations in the border area. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on the 20th that the Russian army had defeated the Ukrainian army's offensive and formed three new army groups to protect the people. TASS reported on the 21st, citing Russian medical departments, that as of the morning of the 21st, the Ukrainian army had caused 31 deaths and 143 injuries in the Kursk region, and 79 people, including 4 children, were seriously injured and hospitalized.
So, how many Ukrainian troops have entered Russia? According to the Russian side, about 12,000 soldiers from Ukraine and other countries have entered Russia's Kursk Oblast in recent days. According to data released by the Russian Ministry of Defense on the 22nd, the Ukrainian army has lost more than 4,700 people and 68 tanks since it entered Kursk Oblast on August 6. On the 21st alone, the Ukrainian army lost about 300 people and 3 tanks in Kursk Oblast. However, the Ukrainian Air Force said on its social media account that most of the missiles fired by the Russian army did not hit the target and did not cause casualties.
Nuclear facilities are very conspicuous on the battlefield. The Russian Foreign Ministry said on the 23rd that Ukraine's attempt to use drones to attack the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant was an act of nuclear terrorism.
Not only in Kursk, the Russian and Ukrainian armies are fighting fiercely in many places. Zelensky said on the 19th that the Donetsk region is under fierce attack by the Russian army. The Russian side also stated that the Russian army is in full swing in many areas such as Donbass and Zaporizhia.
Multiple parties involved
Russia pointed out that NATO and Western countries participated in planning this military operation. Among them, the security agencies of the United States, Britain and Poland provided training and intelligence; Britain and Germany provided training to Ukrainian troops entering Kursk; and NATO provided Ukraine with satellite reconnaissance intelligence on the deployment of Russian troops.
The White House said the US was not aware of the military action. However, according to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency on the 21st, the US private military company "Forward Observation Group" uploaded a picture on social media showing three members of the group standing in front of a military vehicle fully armed. The location of the photo showed that they were in Kursk. The Russian Foreign Ministry lodged a strong protest with the US.
Western countries also quickly made statements. On August 15, the tenth day after the Ukrainian army attacked Kursk, the United States, Britain, Germany, Sweden and other countries announced their support for military aid to Ukraine. Sabrina Singer, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Department of Defense, said that the country reserves the right to provide Ukraine with a variety of weapons; the British Ministry of Defense directly acknowledged that the Ukrainian army used tanks provided by the country in Kursk Oblast.
Zelensky called on the West to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western weapons to attack Russian territory. However, Ukraine admitted for the first time on the 21st that the Ukrainian army used the US-made HIMARS rocket launcher system to destroy several pontoon bridges in Kursk Oblast and used Western weapons in cross-border attacks on Russian territory. It is unknown how binding the restrictions are now.
Seeking peace through war
The war reports came out like a tide, complicated and confusing. However, Ukraine’s purpose for attacking Russia was quite clear:
The first is to open up new battlefields and strive for strategic initiative. Zelensky said on the evening of the 18th that one of the main purposes of Ukraine's action was to establish a buffer zone in Russia. Experts believe that Ukraine hopes that some Russian troops will be transferred from the Donbas region, but the Russian army has chosen to continue to maintain the intensity of operations in other directions to relieve the pressure on Kursk.
Second, it is to boost the confidence of the army and the people. Russian News Agency and the British Times reported at the end of last month that polls showed that since May 2023, the proportion of Ukrainians who agree to "trade territory for peace" has increased from 10% to 32%. This action may lead to a rise in optimism in Ukraine.
Third, the Ukrainian army is still able to fight at the international level, so as to ask for more aid from the West. Within three days of the Ukrainian army entering Russia, the White House announced a new round of military aid worth $125 million to Ukraine, including Stinger missiles, artillery and various ammunition, and also used the "presidential power of nomination" to shorten the delivery time. Zelensky also took the opportunity to propose that a mechanism is needed to obtain the 50 billion frozen Russian assets.
Fourth, "struggle for unity", using the withdrawal from Kursk as a bargaining chip at the final ceasefire negotiation table between Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky directly stated on the 19th that the Ukrainian army's "active defense action" on Russian territory is the "most effective countermeasure". On the same day, Russian presidential assistant Ushakov told the media that there would be no peace talks at present, but President Putin's previous initiative to resolve the Ukrainian crisis has not been cancelled, and how the situation will develop in the future depends on the situation on the battlefield - which naturally includes the Kursk battlefield.
It is foreseeable that the two sides will continue to wrestle in Kursk for some time. German Chancellor Scholz predicted on the 21st that Ukraine's military action may not achieve any results because it is quite limited in space and time.
It is true: if they cannot quickly break free from the enemy's trap and fight on multiple fronts, the value of the Ukrainian army's strike as a bargaining chip will probably have to be sold at a loss when they get to the negotiation table again.
Text丨Yangcheng Evening News reporter Wu Siren
