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If Ko Wen-je falls, will these two people shoulder the burden of the People's Party?

2024-08-23

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"Suppressing Ke Wen-je may not be entirely beneficial to the DPP."

Regarding the political donation account storm of Taiwan People's Party Chairman Ko Wen-je, Zeng Huancheng, chairman of the "China Business Resources Integration Promotion Association" and former assistant to the Green Party Legislative Assembly, said in an interview with the Central News Agency that the efficiency and scale of the DPP authorities' investigation showed that the relatively heavy-handed approach inevitably led to speculation that there were political purposes. The DPP certainly wants to eliminate the People's Party, thinking it is beneficial to the Green Party, but in fact it may not be the case, because Lai Ching-te himself has too high a hatred value.

▲Ke Wenzhe

Zeng Huancheng said that the green camp overlooked a problem, that is, Lai Qingde himself is too hated. Judging from the vote rate in the 2024 election, Lai only won 40%, which is a fluke election. In other words, 60% of voters do not support Lai Qingde. Such an election result also made non-green voters who should have won quite dissatisfied.Therefore, if the DPP eliminates Ko at this stage, the possibility of a counterattack by supporters of the People's Party cannot be ruled out.The supporters of the People's Party are composed of light blue, light green and middle voters. Many of the light green voters are disappointed with the Democratic Progressive Party. How many of them can the Green Camp attract?

Zeng Huancheng mentioned that the DPP also ignored the resilience of the People's Party. If the People's Party continues to survive even without Ko Wen-je,It may be Huang Kuo-chang, a representative of the people, or Tsai Bi-ru, an advisor to the Taichung City Government, who will shoulder the heavy responsibility.Based on the estimate that Ko won more than 3 million votes in the 2024 Taiwan regional leadership election,If the DPP can hold on to half of the votes (1.5 million), and the rest of the outbound votes flow to the blue and green camps, the DPP may not be able to secure its victory.Moreover, if the Bai camp continues to operate, in order to avoid repeating the mistakes of 2024, there is a high possibility of opposition integration. Suppressing Ko Wen-je may not be entirely beneficial to the DPP.

Huang Kuo-chang

Cai Biru

The case of Ko Wen-je's political donations continues to burn, with unfavorable evidence and revelations every day, and the subsequent developments are of concern to all sectors. Zeng Huancheng told the Central News Agency that from several aspects, the judicial investigation measures taken by the DPP authorities against the People's Party can be said to be "heavy-handed" in terms of efficiency and scale of investigation. Not only did the prosecutors quickly and proactively separate the case for investigation, but also in the Taipei Jinghuacheng case related to Ko Wen-je, Peng Zhensheng, who was then the deputy mayor of Ko's government, was restricted from leaving the country after being summoned by the prosecutors. In addition, the People's Party's Hsinchu Mayor Gao Hongan was also sentenced in the first instance of the "assistant fee case."All signs point to one result, that is, the People's Party is in great danger.

Zeng Huancheng pointed out that from the perspective of party politics, the DPP certainly wants to eliminate the People's Party, especially Ke Wenzhe, because the People's Party is a party with Ke Wenzhe as its core.As long as Ke Wenzhe falls, the People's Party will basically be a bubbleIn terms of the spectrum of party supporters, the flow of supporters of the People's Party is relatively favorable to the Green Camp.The DPP's plan is to use this opportunity to attract votes from the White Camp and get rid of troublemakers.In fact, it is not just the Democratic Progressive Party that has this idea, the Kuomintang may also have this idea.

He said that the blue and green parties have long had a tacit understanding to suppress the third force, because the third force often becomes a troublemaker, especially Ko Wen-je, who is not just a "variable" or even a "random number." Instead of allowing Ko Wen-je to continue to disrupt the situation, it is better to divide the votes of the People's Party supporters.However, whether the flow of People's Party supporters can bring 100% profit as the DPP calculated remains to be discussed.