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According to a report by AFP on August 21, the US military said that the USS Abraham Lincoln and its entourageDestroyerhas arrived in the Middle East. Earlier, the US Secretary of Defense ordered theCarrier Battle GroupSpeed ​​up and move forward.

With the arrival of the USS Lincoln, the number of US aircraft carrier battle groups in the Middle East has reached two - at least for now, because the US officials have not yet confirmed that the arrival of the USS Lincoln will lead to the withdrawal of the USS Roosevelt, or whether the dual aircraft carrier battle groups will always maintain combat readiness and deterrence. There is a difference between the US military deploying one aircraft carrier or two aircraft carriers. After all, verbal promises lie, and actual actions are honest.

If one aircraft carrier is deployed, it means that Blinken is sincere in his tireless travel to the Middle East and instigating Egypt and Qatar to host the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks; if the last two aircraft carrier battle groups are retained, it means that the United States has no confidence in the outcome of the peace talks and is just a delaying tactic to buy time for the Lincoln to leave. As far as the current situation is concerned, the latter is more likely.

Last week, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that the U.S. government approved a new round of arms sales to Israel worth $20 billion, including a large number of F-15 fighter jets and advanced equipment such as air-to-air missiles. This arms sale was also promoted by Blinken. You know, nowadays F-15s are often used as "bomb trucks". There is nothing to bomb in Gaza, and the F-15's range cannot reach Iran, so it is just right to use it against Lebanon and Syria.

If this batch of arms sales arrives, coupled with the dual aircraft carrier battle group, it will indeed be enough to support Israel in a war for a while. In addition, during the so-called peace talks promoted by the United States, Israel did not stop attacking Gaza and Lebanon, and assassinated Fatah military commanders, continuing to push the Lebanese-Israeli border to a tense state. The United States and Britain also tried their best to weakenHouthi armed forcesOn August 21, local time, the US Central Command claimed to have destroyed a surface-to-air missile and radar system of the Houthi armed forces.

All of the above shows that the US and Israel are preparing for war and there is no hope for peace talks in the Middle East. If these are not convincing enough, then other intelligence really makes it necessary to prepare for a rainy day.

Just after the arrival of the USS Lincoln, the Chinese Embassy in Lebanon issued a document on August 22, reminding Chinese citizens to pay close attention to the development of the local situation, further enhance safety awareness, and return to China or leave the country as soon as possible while commercial flights are still in operation to avoid risks and ensure safety. Those who need to continue to stay in Lebanon should remain highly vigilant, strengthen security precautions and emergency preparedness, and avoid going to high-risk areas and sensitive areas in the south. In case of emergency, please call the police in time and contact the Chinese Embassy in Lebanon.

Two weeks ago, the Chinese Embassy in Lebanon said "be cautious when traveling to Lebanon in the near future." At that time, the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran, was still having an impact, and the world was closely watching Iran's retaliatory actions. Logically, the situation should have been more tense than it is now.

Now, the Chinese embassy has begun to persuade those who can return to come back as soon as possible. The change in wording is very obvious. History has taught us that the evacuation of Chinese citizens by Western countries may be hype, and once we have the idea of ​​evacuating Chinese citizens, we basically do it out of necessity. Although it is just a routine warning and not a full evacuation, it is enough to show that the situation is deteriorating.

Therefore, judging from the preparations of all parties, Blinken's ninth Middle East visit to promote talks should have failed again, or he did not intend to do it seriously. When the time comes, Lebanon and Israel should have a full showdown. Some time ago, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei publicly stated that the retaliation action would be delayed for two weeks, obviously waiting for the results of the multi-party talks in Gaza.

Now that the negotiations have broken down, Iran's retaliatory actions are naturally on the agenda again. Lebanon's Hezbollah's border harassment firepower has never stopped, and the US military's dual aircraft carrier battle group has also arrived. The conditions for a large-scale conflict are basically ripe and imminent. It is worth mentioning that Russian President Putin also visited Azerbaijan recently and reached a series of cooperation intentions. To some extent, this is equivalent to opening up a channel for communication with Iran. In other words, once the Middle East officially opens fire, the two hot spots may even be linked together, and the impact is even more unpredictable.