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Fed minutes: 'Overwhelmingly' officials think September rate cut may be more appropriate

2024-08-22

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On August 21, local time, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.14%, the Nasdaq up 0.57%, and the S&P 500 up 0.42%.

Most large technology stocks rose, with Meta up more than 1%, Tesla and Nvidia up nearly 1%, and Google down nearly 1%. Apparel retail, scientific instruments, and metal processing sectors led the gains, with Ross Stores and Gap up more than 4%, MKS Instruments up more than 3%, and AMD, Ion Pipe, and Cognex up more than 2%. Department stores and oil and gas extraction fell, with Macy's down nearly 13%, Nordstrom down more than 3%, and Nabors Industries down more than 1%.

Popular Chinese stocks generally rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 2.39%.Vipshop rose more than 9%, Futu Holdings, Xpeng Motors, and Li Auto rose more than 4%, Weilai and Alibaba rose more than 3%, NetEase, Manbang, and Baidu rose more than 2%, Weibo rose more than 1%, Tencent Music, Bilibili, and iQiyi rose slightly. JD.com fell more than 4%.

The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures fell 1.69% to $71.93 per barrel, while the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures fell 1.49% to $76.05 per barrel.

On the evening of August 21, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor released preliminary revised data on non-farm employment for the past year ending March.

The report showed that the U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported in the 12 months from April 2022 to March 2024.

As part of its initial annual benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls, the BLS said actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the 2.9 million initially reported, and total employment fell 0.5%, the largest drop since 2009. While these numbers are routinely revised monthly, the BLS makes larger revisions each year when it gets the results of its quarterly census of employment and wages.

According to China Fund News, Wall Street has been awaiting these revised figures, with many economists expecting significant downward revisions to the initially reported numbers.

Even after the revision, job creation for the period was still above 2 million, but the report could indicate that the labor market is not as strong as the Bureau of Labor Statistics previously reported. This could further push the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.

The revisions suggest the slowdown in the labor market began much earlier than originally expected. Until earlier this month, markets and economists had been concerned by the July jobs report. That report raised alarms because the pace of hiring was weak and the unemployment rate rose for a fourth straight month, but other indicators such as unemployment claims and job openings showed more modest signs of a slowdown.

Chairman of the Federal ReservePowell will(August 23, local time)Investors will get his latest views when he speaks at the annual gathering of global central banks in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where other Fed officials may also weigh in on the economic outlook.

According to CCTV News, on August 21, local time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting from July 30 to 31. The minutes showed that the Federal Reserve decided to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes in July and maintain the target range of the federal funds rate between 5.25% and 5.50%.

The minutes showed that some participants believed there was a case for a rate cut in July.But a "vast majority" of officials believe a September rate cut would be more appropriateAccording to the minutes, participants believed that the upside risks to inflation had decreased, and almost all members believed that inflation would continue to decline. In addition, the downside risks to employment were considered to have increased. Participants pointed out that easing policy too late or too little could excessively weaken economic activity or employment.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in September, at least once more later this year and further ease monetary policy next year, according to forecasts in the minutes.Participants agreed that economic activity in the United States continued to grow steadily, job gains slowed somewhat, the unemployment rate rose but remained low, and inflation eased over the past year but remained high.In addition, participants believed that the United States has made some progress in achieving its 2% inflation target in recent months, and the risks to achieving employment and inflation targets continue to be balanced, but the economic outlook remains uncertain.

Regarding the inflation outlook, participants said that recent data had strengthened their confidence that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent. Almost all participants noted that the factors that had led to the recent retreat in inflation were likely to continue to put downward pressure on inflation in the coming months.

The minutes noted that most Fed officials believed that risks to the job market had increased, while risks to the inflation mission had decreased.