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According to the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission on August 22, according to the current domestic refined oil price mechanism, the average price of the first 10 working days before August 22 is less than 50 yuan per ton compared with the average price of the 10 working days before August 8. According to regulations, the gasoline and diesel prices will not be adjusted this time, and the unadjusted amount will be accumulated or offset in the next price adjustment.

This price adjustment is the fourth suspension this year. At present, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 16 rounds of adjustments, showing a pattern of "seven increases, five decreases and four suspensions", with more increases than decreases overall. After offsetting the increases and decreases, the prices of gasoline and diesel have increased by 250 yuan/ton and 245 yuan/ton respectively compared with the end of last year.

It is worth noting that before this round of price adjustment, the retail price of refined oil products had already experienced two rounds of downward adjustment, of which the latest round reached the largest drop this year, with gasoline and diesel prices reduced by 305 yuan and 290 yuan per ton respectively. As a result, the retail price limit of No. 92 gasoline in most parts of the country fell to 7.7-7.8 yuan per liter, and the price of diesel fell to 7.3-7.5 yuan per liter. The shelving of this price adjustment means that the retail price of refined oil products in most parts of the country will still be in the 7 yuan era.

In this round of price adjustment cycle, international oil prices rose first and then fell. Taking the UK Brent crude oil futures price as an example, starting from August 9, Brent crude oil futures prices rose for two consecutive days, reaching the highest point of this round of price adjustment cycle on August 12 at $82.4 per barrel, and then continued to fall, falling to the lowest point of the price adjustment cycle on August 21 at $75.65 per barrel, a drop of nearly 8.2% from the high point.

On the news front, according to Wang Yanting, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, in the early stage, the Iranian attack may further promote tensions in the Middle East. In addition, the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will increase fuel demand, and the US economic data is positive, which supports the rebound of international oil prices at the close. Later, after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, US Secretary of State Blinken said that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had accepted the US "bridging proposal" aimed at narrowing the differences between the two sides. Hamas said that the proposal overturned the previous agreement, but did not explicitly reject the proposal. Geopolitical risks have eased. In addition, China's crude oil processing volume in July fell year-on-year, causing investors to worry about the outlook for China's energy demand, and the US government lowered employment data, and the market became increasingly pessimistic about the demand outlook. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, international crude oil prices fell from high levels.

The next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on September 5. The agency predicts that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will start with a downward trend, and the downward adjustment will be large. Jinlianchuang predicts that after entering a new round of pricing cycle, the rate of change will turn into a negative range fluctuation. On the first working day after the price adjustment, the rate of change may be -4.2%, corresponding to a downward adjustment of around 180 yuan/ton.

Looking ahead to the future market, Longzhong Information said that the market's recent concerns about the economic and demand prospects are still fermenting, and the poor US employment data has revived the risk of economic recession. Short-term negative factors prevail, coupled with the accumulated decline in oil prices from the previous decline, it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will be more likely to be downward.