“Wukong” doesn’t work anymore? A-share gaming sector leads the decline, research report says current market bottom features are obvious
2024-08-22
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China Business News (Reporter Wang Tongxu)In today's A-shares, "Wukong" is out of steam, with the gaming sector leading the decline.
As of the close, the three major indexes fluctuated downward.The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.82%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.76%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell 2.35%.The turnover of the three stock markets of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing was 552.2 billion yuan, of which 549.2 billion yuan was in Shanghai and Shenzhen, an increase of 39.6 billion yuan from the previous day. More than 4,400 stocks in the two markets fell.
As of the closing, among the 90 industry sectors, three sectors, namely banking, clothing and home textiles, and road and rail transportation, rose, while the other 87 industry sectors all fell; among the 391 concept sectors, only the ST sector rose, while the other 390 concept sectors all fell.
Going against the trend and moving upward - today's bank stocks are still "very promising".
In terms of individual stocks, Bank of China performed well, with its share price rising by nearly 3% during the session. The news of "witnessing history, banks continue to set new highs" also topped the hot search list of Tonghuashun. As of the close, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank led the gains, followed by Hangzhou Bank, Bank of China, Chengdu Bank and others.
Industry insiders said that the recent collective strength of bank stocks is not a coincidence, but the result of the combined effect of multiple factors.
On the one hand, recently, investment confidence in the capital market has declined.When funds are looking for a relatively safe haven, bank stocks become the first choice due to their high dividend yields and stability.Against the backdrop of the central bank raising long-term bond yields, the relative allocation value of funds in the banking sector has been significantly improved.
on the other hand,The market generally expects the US dollar to cut interest rates, which further boosted investors' confidence in bank stocks.Before the US dollar interest rate cut, the market was in a wait-and-see mood, and funds tended to flow into bank stocks with stable earnings and higher dividend yields.
In addition, in terms of news,Recently, A-share listed banks have been intensively implementing mid-term dividends.
For example, on August 16, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank launched a mid-term dividend plan in its semi-annual report, with an intended cash dividend of 2.305 billion yuan and a mid-term cash dividend ratio of 33.07%; on August 15, Ping An Bank stated that it plans to distribute mid-term profits in 2024, with a cash dividend of 2.46 yuan (tax included) per 10 shares.
Previously, six state-owned banks also announced their mid-term dividend plans. Zhongtai Securities Research believes that bank stocks are stable and defensive, with high dividends and investment attributes of state-owned financial institutions; the investment perspective strongly supports the bank stock market, and the fundamentals of banks are stable.
According to a research report by CITIC Securities, the overall expansion of balance sheets and performance growth of listed banks are expected to remain stable in the first half of the year.Currently, bank stocks are supported by policy support and stable performance. In addition, the logic of financial product allocation preferences remains unchanged, and the dividend income space is highly certain.
Wanlian Securities also believes that the high dividend yield and extremely low valuation of bank stocks have made them the preferred choice of funds. Combined with the rising market defense demand, it has boosted the market performance of the entire banking sector.
also,Today, the clothing and home textile sectors also performed actively.Among them, Pathfinder 20cm hit the daily limit, Coote Intelligent rose more than 14.6%, and Nanshan Zhishang rose more than 10%; Jinfa Rabbi, Sanfu Outdoor, Ribo Fashion, and Ruyi Group all hit the daily limit.
Regarding the future trend of A-shares, Guolian Securities Research Report believes that the current market has obvious bottom characteristics.Specifically, all valuation indicators have fallen back to extremely low levels, and the odds and odds of the subsequent market rebound are high. From the perspective of price-to-book ratio, the proportion of stocks at the bottom of the current market valuation is higher than the levels at the bottom of the market in 2018 and 2022, and the price-to-book ratio percentile since 2010 has also been as low as 1.1%, and the market valuation has reached an extremely low level. From the perspective of risk premium, the current ERP of the Shanghai Composite Index is 1.17 times the standard deviation. From historical experience, the average return in the next month is 2%, and the average return in the next three months is 4%. In terms of trading volume, the current weekly average daily trading volume has dropped to the lowest level since 2020. Historical data shows that when the market shrinks extremely, there will be good odds and odds in the next three months.
"During the time when market valuations are in the bottom 5% of history, subsequent short-term market differentiation may depend more on the expected profit growth rate. Judging from the current consensus earnings expectations for 2024, the absolute growth rates of social services, chemicals, transportation, and light industry are relatively high, and earnings expectations have been significantly raised compared to June 30, 2024. After reviewing previous market bottoms, it was found that, except for October 2019 and April 2020, every market bottom rebound since 2012 showed obvious signs of oversold rebound. Currently, non-ferrous metals, food and beverages, chemicals, building materials and other industries have a significant correction. Therefore, based on the dimensions of oversold extent, valuation, transaction volume share, and earnings expectations, we believe that the probability of subsequent oversold rebounds in chemicals, food and beverages, and non-ferrous metals is relatively high." Guolian Securities said.
(Note: The picture comes from Tonghuashun, and this article does not constitute any investment advice)
