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After experiencing the "Black Monday" on August 5, the global market has recovered, expectations for a "soft landing" of the economy have warmed up, dispelling the haze of "recession theory". The Nasdaq 100 index, which had the largest drop, has rebounded nearly 10% from its August low, marking eight consecutive days of gains.

The three major U.S. stock indexes had a good start this week. The Nasdaq index closed at a one-month high after rising for eight consecutive days, which is the longest rising trend this year. Except for Apple's slight decline, the other seven technology giants all closed higher overnight. At present, the market's optimism about the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting last Friday is expected to continue. After the July non-farm payroll report released on August 2 triggered the "Sam Rule", Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months from 15% to 25%, and now it has lowered this probability again to 20%, and believes that a 25 basis point (BP) interest rate cut in September is still a high probability event, rather than an emergency interest rate cut of 50BP.

The performance of the Asia-Pacific market is not as strong as that of the US stock market. The A-shares and Hong Kong stocks fluctuated downward this week, but the Japanese stock market, which had the largest plunge in the previous period, led the rise in the Asia-Pacific region. The Nikkei 225 index has rebounded nearly 20% from its low point and rose 1.98% on August 20 to break through the 38,000 point mark. UBS told reporters that despite recent fluctuations, the Japanese stock market tends to perform strongly during the House of Representatives election. Since 2000, stocks have risen an average of 6% within 50 days before and after the House of Representatives election. In addition, the relative performance within the industry may be more dependent on the specific policies of the winning candidate.

The interest rate may be cut by 25BP in September

Since the 1980s, the central bank meeting held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA in August has gradually become an annual global central bank meeting. Many important policies are announced or shifted during the meeting. This year's meeting (August 22-24, local time) coincides with the critical moment before the Fed cuts interest rates, and the time is right between the July and September meetings, so it is even more important.