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Source: Global Times

[Global Times Special Correspondent in Egypt Huang Peizhao Global Times Special Correspondent Yu Wen] "It is a fantasy to say that we are about to reach a ceasefire agreement. What we are facing is not an agreement or a real negotiation, but an order imposed by the United States." Zuhri, a member of the Political Bureau of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), told AFP on the 17th. The report said that this was tantamount to denying the US statement the day before. The United States, Qatar and Egypt issued a joint statement on the 16th, saying that the new round of Gaza ceasefire negotiations was "constructive" and the atmosphere was positive; US President Biden said, "We are closer than ever" to reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office said on the 17th that it was "cautiously optimistic" about the prospects for reaching a ceasefire agreement, and "hoped that the United States and other mediators would put more pressure on Hamas so that they would no longer oppose the US proposal." Regarding the obvious "temperature difference" between the parties on the Gaza ceasefire agreement, AFP mentioned that the US Democratic Party will hold a national convention this week to nominate Vice President Harris as a candidate for the 2024 presidential election. For Biden, reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza will be a major victory. However, the British newspaper The Guardian published a commentary article saying that neither the Israeli government nor Hamas is willing to reach a ceasefire agreement. As the parties were engaged in fierce negotiations on the prospects for a ceasefire, the first case of poliomyelitis (commonly known as "polio") in 25 years appeared in the Gaza Strip, causing concern.

On August 18, 2024, local time, in Khan Yunis, Gaza Strip, Palestinians dismantled their tents and prepared to flee the temporary displaced persons camp. (Visual China)

Hamas official refutes Biden's claims

A new round of Gaza ceasefire negotiations began on the 15th in Doha, the capital of Qatar, for two days. Participants included officials from Israel, Qatar, the United States and Egypt. Hamas did not send representatives to the meeting, but indirectly participated in the negotiations through the "message" of the mediator. Qatar, the United States and Egypt issued a joint statement on the 16th saying that the mediator proposed a "transitional proposal" that would help bridge the differences between Israel and Hamas and help promote the rapid implementation of relevant consensus after the ceasefire agreement was reached. Senior government officials from the three countries will hold talks in Cairo, the capital of Egypt, in the next few days with the goal of finalizing the agreement.

Biden's subsequent statement was more positive. He said he was "optimistic" about reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, "we are closer to our goal than ever before," and that he would send Secretary of State Blinken to Israel to continue "working towards a ceasefire agreement."

"Hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza grow, Blinken returns to the Middle East." Agence France-Presse reported on the 18th that this is the tenth visit of the top US diplomat to the Middle East since a new round of conflict broke out between Palestine and Israel in October last year. He postponed his vacation plan and will fly to Tel Aviv to attend talks with Israeli leaders. The report said that for several months, the Gaza ceasefire talks have been intermittent, and "the optimism about it has ultimately proved to be unfounded." In late May and early June this year, the United States proposed a ceasefire plan for Gaza and pushed the UN Security Council to pass Resolution 2735, claiming that Israel had accepted the ceasefire agreement, but the reality is just the opposite. The fighting in Gaza has not stopped.

The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reported on the 17th that this is not the first time Biden has said that he believes a ceasefire agreement in Gaza is about to be reached - but not everyone is as cautiously optimistic as he is. After Biden's statement, a senior Hamas official told the BBC, "The information we have received from the mediator is very disappointing, and no progress has been made." The mediator "is selling fantasies." Commentators believe that Israel and Hamas "were dragged to the negotiating table reluctantly" because the countries mediating the ceasefire were worried about the consequences of a failed negotiation. Iran has previously stated that if a ceasefire agreement in Gaza cannot be reached in the near future, it will retaliate against Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh on Iranian territory. "Hamas and its allies are convinced that the US government is trying to delay time."

Qatar's Al Jazeera reported on the 17th that when asked about the optimism expressed by the United States, Hamas Political Bureau member Badran said that Hamas does not consider the United States a mediator, but a promoter and supporter of Israel's war on Gaza. Another member of the organization, Hamdan, told Al Jazeera that everyone knows that it is Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government who are unwilling to reach a ceasefire agreement and that Israel has put forward new conditions in an attempt to undermine the negotiations.

The parties have major differences on the content of the agreement. The Times of Israel said that the "transitional new plan" proposed by the US does not include two demands that Netanyahu has insisted on in recent weeks: that the Israeli army remain in the "Philadelphia Corridor" bordering the Gaza Strip and Egypt, and that the Israeli army control a main traffic artery dividing the north and south areas of the Gaza Strip to screen whether there are Hamas members among the returning Palestinians. Hamas has clearly expressed its opposition to these demands. Israel's Channel 12 said that Israel will negotiate with the United States on these two key issues. Only when Israel and the United States reach an agreement on this, Egypt and Qatar will urge Hamas to accept the agreement.

Polio outbreak could occur in Gaza

Israel's military operations against Gaza are still ongoing, and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to worsen. On the 16th, the Palestinian Ministry of Health reported that the first case of "polio" in 25 years appeared in the southern Gaza Strip. A 10-month-old child was diagnosed and there were several suspected cases with similar symptoms.

Al Jazeera reported on the 18th that the threat of polio is rising rapidly in Gaza, and aid organizations are calling on all parties to suspend the war so that they can strengthen vaccination and prevent a full-scale outbreak of cases. The Associated Press quoted Francis Hughes, head of the International Aid Organization, as saying, "We are predicting and preparing for the worst-case scenario of a polio outbreak (in Gaza) in the coming weeks or a month." Aid organizations estimate that about 50,000 newborn babies in Gaza have not been vaccinated against polio since the outbreak of the new round of war.

The Washington Post said on the 18th that this result is the tragic consequence of Israel's months-long war on Gaza, which destroyed the local water and sanitation infrastructure. The Palestinian Ministry of Health said that polio is highly contagious and can cause paralysis and death in infected people. Unless the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is completely resolved, the disease will continue to spread. "This is very worrying," said Amar, a spokesman for UNICEF. (Continued from the first page) "Vaccination in war-torn areas is impossible, and other options are unreasonable for Gaza's children." UN Secretary-General Guterres called on all parties to a humanitarian ceasefire so that the United Nations can launch a polio vaccination campaign for 640,000 children under the age of 10 in Gaza.

'Desperate attempt'

Although the United States continues to send "positive signals" to the outside world, pessimistic voices seem to have the upper hand. The British "Guardian" published a commentary on the 18th, saying that with the end of the latest round of negotiations, any hope of a ceasefire in Gaza this weekend has been shattered. Next, the parties will hold further discussions, but these discussions are more like a desperate attempt to keep the process going rather than providing a real opportunity for peace.

The Guardian article believes that more than a dozen rounds of mediation negotiations, UN resolutions, pressure from major powers such as the United States, and many other factors have failed to prompt the leaders of Israel or Hamas to make the necessary concessions to end the 10-month war. The reason is simple: decision-makers on both sides of the conflict are waiting for the right time to ensure that the most favorable agreement is reached. The specific debate over the agreement in the past few days has obscured the fact that a ceasefire agreement can only be reached when the most influential decision-makers on both sides believe that now is the right time to end the fighting. And this does not seem to be the case at present. Despite the huge damage to Israel's international reputation and relations with the United States, heavy economic losses, the death of more than 300 soldiers, and the anger of the people in the occupied West Bank, Netanyahu still seems to believe that continuing the war is more beneficial than stopping.

The report said that Hamas' new leader Sinwar also seemed in no hurry to reach an agreement. The Guardian said that Sinwar was imprisoned in an Israeli prison for 23 years until he was released in a prisoner exchange in 2011. His career goal is to destroy Israel. Sinwar was elected as the leader of Hamas this month, replacing the relatively pragmatic Haniyeh. Few observers believe that this will increase the possibility of a ceasefire agreement. "Sinwar now seems to believe that Hamas is in a strong position in the negotiations, and the suffering of civilians in Gaza has increased international pressure on Israel, which may force Israel to make further concessions. He also knows that Hamas still exists in most areas (of Gaza) and the organization is able to recruit new fighters."

Al Jazeera reporter said on the 18th that both Israel and Hamas must realize that they cannot achieve through diplomatic means what they failed to achieve in the war, and that negotiations mean that the war "will continue in other ways."