Ukrainian troops raided Kursk. German experts: Ukrainian troops do not have enough reserves and strength, and may be repelled in two or three weeks
2024-08-19
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The Ukrainian army crossed the border and launched an attack on Russia's Kursk Oblast on August 6 local time. Currently, the conflict between the two sides in the state is still ongoing.Some German experts believe that Ukraine's surprise attack on Kursk may be an attempt to build up bargaining chips before possible negotiations. Given that its army is facing a shortage of personnel, Ukraine may be repelled in two or three weeks.
▲On the 18th, Russian troops in Kursk fired self-propelled artillery at Ukrainian positions. According to Visual China
Some German experts believe that if Trump wins the US presidential election in November this year, the threat of withdrawing military aid may force Ukraine to negotiate. Therefore, Ukraine hopes to have more bargaining chips in exchange for Russia's concessions in the negotiations. Although Ukraine's cross-border attack on Russia was swift, its military risks increase over time. So far, it has failed to eliminate the threats posed by Russian reconnaissance aircraft, glide bombs, artillery, electronic warfare systems and tactical missile systems.
Before launching the military operation against Kursk, Ukraine lacked the forces to rotate and hold the line. Now, it has gathered up its available operational reserves and focused them on a new front. Russia, for that matter, has more than enough men and equipment to fight both fronts simultaneously and is able to continue its steady advance to Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and other towns in the Donbass.
Wolfgang Richter, a military expert at the German Science and Politics Foundation and a former colonel in the German Federal Armed Forces, believes that now that Russia is exerting increasing pressure, Ukraine's predicament has become obvious. He said that on the one hand, Ukraine does not have enough reserves in Donbass, and the actions in Kursk are wasting the forces needed in Donbass; on the other hand, Ukraine will not have enough strength in the long run to hold this "chip" that is constantly talked about, because Russia is making great progress in Donbass and gradually threatening the central position of Donbass, namely Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, while Kramatorsk is the main base of the Ukrainian Eastern Army and its headquarters.
Richter said that although the outcome of Ukraine's attack on Kursk is still uncertain, perhaps in two or three weeks Ukraine will be repelled due to heavy losses.
In this regard, Wei Dongxu, editor-in-chief of "Global Military Report" of China Media Group Global Information Radio, also analyzed and pointed out when talking about related issues that Ukraine's attack on Kursk Oblast cannot fundamentally change the battlefield situation.
Wei Dongxu believes that the Ukrainian army's attack on Kursk Oblast was originally intended to contain the Russian army's offensive on the eastern front. But at present, the Russian army's offensive on the eastern front has not slowed down. This shows that the main Russian army's combat operations on the eastern front have not been affected by the Ukrainian army's attack on Kursk Oblast. Now the Ukrainian army wants to advance in depth in Kursk Oblast, and it faces increasing resistance. There are also doubts about whether the Ukrainian army can hold the existing control area.
Wei Dongxu pointed out that if the Russian army gathered more forces to launch a counterattack, it would be very difficult for the Ukrainian army to gain a foothold in Kursk Oblast, or it would suffer more and more casualties.
Red Star News reporter Wang Yalin, intern Ye Ying, CCTV Global News (Chen Meng, Dong Jingjing, Wei Dongxu)
Editor: Guo Zhuang, Editor-in-Chief: Deng Feiguang
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