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[Text/Observer Network Qi Qian] According to an exclusive report by the Washington Post on August 17, several diplomats and officials familiar with the negotiations revealed that Russia and Ukraine will send delegations to Doha in late August to negotiate a limited ceasefire agreement on a ban on attacks on energy facilities under the mediation of Qatar. By then, this landmark agreement will provide a breathing space for both Russia and Ukraine.

However, people familiar with the matter said that the Ukrainian army's raid on Russia's Kursk Oblast added variables to the planned negotiations: Ukraine believes that this action will increase its bargaining chips; but this move has angered Russia, and "the Russian top leaders will not make any compromises under pressure."

Russian and Ukrainian delegations plan to hold talks in Doha?

In June this year, at a two-day Swiss peace summit, the Ukrainian government actively lobbied countries to support its 10-point peace plan, which included a complete withdrawal of Russian troops. However, after the meeting, representatives of various countries only reached a joint statement involving the promotion of prisoner exchange, nuclear safety and food security.

Shortly after the summit, Qatar raised the idea of ​​an energy ceasefire and began discussing possible plans with both Russia and Ukraine, according to officials familiar with the matter.

Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022, Russia and Ukraine have held several rounds of negotiations, including secret talks in Istanbul, but all have stalled due to mutual accusations between the two sides. In July 2022, under the leadership of the United Nations, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations jointly signed an agreement on the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports, but it was finally terminated in July 2023.

Ukrainian President Zelensky said that only if Russia withdraws all its troops from Ukrainian territory first will Ukraine consider a complete ceasefire. But Russian President Putin insisted that Ukraine fantasizes about Russia withdrawing its troops, "which will never happen."

Putin made a speech in June: Ukraine fantasizes about Russia withdrawing troops, which is impossible. Screenshot of foreign media video

The Washington Post believes that Russia and Ukraine's willingness to participate in the negotiations shows that both countries have changed to some extent. At present, Ukrainians are more willing to follow the Black Sea Agreement in July 2022 to reach a potential agreement to stop attacks on energy infrastructure.

According to reports, for more than a year, Russia has been bombarding Ukraine's power grid with cruise missiles and drones, causing irreparable damage to power stations across Ukraine and frequent power outages. At the same time, Ukraine used long-range drones to attack Russian oil facilities and damaged multiple refineries, warehouses and reservoirs across Russia.

"Russia's attack on Ukraine's power grid is a brutal and effective strategy," the report wrote. The continued power outages have affected the daily lives of Ukrainians and seriously damaged the economy that has been paralyzed by the war. Ukrainian officials expressed concern that if Russia's bombing continues, Ukraine may have difficulty surviving the winter: after winter, Ukraine's daily power supply may be limited to 5 to 7 hours, or even less.

Ukrainian troops raided Russian mainland, reducing the possibility of talks

On August 6, local time, Ukrainian troops broke into the Russian Kursk Oblast, which was the largest attack launched by Ukraine on Russian territory since the outbreak of the conflict. Kursk Oblast has declared a state of emergency.

The Ukrainian military's surprise attack on Russian territory has added uncertainty to the planned Doha talks. A diplomat familiar with the talks said Russia viewed it as an "escalation" and postponed its meeting with Qatari officials.The official said, "Russia did not cancel the talks, they said give us time," and although Ukraine wanted to send a delegation to Doha anyway, Qatar refused because a unilateral meeting would be meaningless.

The Ukrainian presidential office confirmed the authenticity of the Doha meeting in a statement, saying that the meeting was postponed "due to the situation in the Middle East" but will be held via video on August 22. Russia and the White House have not yet commented on the matter.

On August 16, the fighting between Russia and Ukraine in Kursk Oblast continued

Ukraine and the West believe that the Ukrainian army's advance into the Russian mainland is, to some extent, intended to give Ukraine more bargaining chips in future negotiations. Some Russian analysts hold the same view, saying that Ukraine's bold attack on the Kursk region may provide Ukraine with a strong bargaining chip in future negotiations, but the premise is that the Ukrainian army can successfully build fortifications and hold its position before Russia's full-scale counterattack.

Military analysts, however, are skeptical that the Ukrainian army can maintain control of Russian territory. More importantly, despite the Ukrainian army's success in increasing its leverage by seizing land, the likelihood of imminent peace talks appears to have decreased.

A diplomat familiar with the negotiations said Qatar had been discussing a moratorium on energy attacks with Kiev and Moscow for the past two months and the two sides had agreed to hold the meeting in Doha, with only minor details to be worked out. "But after Kursk, the Russians hesitated," said another person familiar with the matter.

A Russian academic with close ties to senior Russian diplomats suggested that Putin was in no mood to reach an agreement after the Ukrainian offensive on Kursk. "It is well known that our Russian leadership usually does not make any compromises under pressure."

It is worth mentioning that Russia has repeatedly questioned the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Zelensky. In May this year, Zelensky's five-year presidential term expired. Due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Ukrainian government issued a martial law order and the new presidential election has been postponed indefinitely.

"But who are we going to negotiate with?" On May 24, local time, Putin said that Russia is willing to restart peace talks with Ukraine, but the negotiations must be based on "common sense" and "current facts". The reality is that "the legitimacy of the current (Ukrainian) head of state has ended." He pointed out that in order to conduct any meaningful negotiations with Kiev, Russia must be absolutely sure that it is dealing with the legitimate government of Ukraine.

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