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A good sword is expected to be sharp, not sharp; a good horse is expected to run a thousand miles, not to be swift. Pessimists are right, optimists move forward. No one can get rich by shorting his own country.

Faced with external challenges such as anti-globalization and strategic containment, internal challenges such as insufficient domestic demand, low confidence, real estate decline, and deflation, as well as opportunities such as the new energy revolution and the artificial intelligence revolution, the current Chinese economy has ten key choices:

1. Should interest rates be cut? PPI has been negative for more than 20 consecutive months, which means that the actual interest rate (nominal interest rate - price) of enterprises has risen, so interest rates should be cut to reduce the costs of enterprises and residents and promote economic recovery.

2. Should we protect the exchange rate or growth and employment? Lowering interest rates may lead to pressure on exchange rate depreciation, while not lowering interest rates will lead to economic growth and employment pressure. What should we do in this dilemma? The monetary policy of a big country is based on self-reliance. By lowering interest rates, we can promote domestic economic growth and employment. The exchange rate will depreciate in the short term, but appreciate in the long term. We are not afraid of depreciation, but we are afraid of the expectation of depreciation. It is better to have substance than to have appearance. Seek truth from facts and follow the trend.

3. Should we worry about inflation? The main contradiction at present is the worry about the price-deflation cycle and the decline of the balance sheet. The main reason is the lack of domestic demand, so the top priority is to expand domestic demand. Macroeconomic regulation is counter-cyclical regulation. After the economic recovery rises above the potential growth rate, the policy can be tightened again.

4. Should we save the property market? Saving the property market is not only about saving real estate companies and banks, but also about saving local finances. This is not only an economic issue. Real estate is the mother of cycles. If the real estate is stable, the economy will be stable. China's urbanization rate is 66.2%, and with the demand for improvement, there is still a lot of room. As long as the measures are appropriate, China will not repeat Japan's balance sheet recession and the lost 30 years. The effect of squeezing toothpaste-style policy relaxation is short-term pulse-like. The truly effective policy relaxation should boost confidence in one go. After the bursting of the Japanese real estate bubble in the 1990s, the Japanese government's attitude towards regulation was not firm enough and the intensity was not strong enough. It adopted a toothpaste-squeezing easing, which failed to effectively block the spiral decline of asset prices, bank credit and price levels, and eventually produced chronic deflation. However, the United States decisively implemented measures in the face of the 2008 crisis, implemented large-scale QE, prevented the spread of the crisis, and the economy quickly recovered. At present, it is appropriate to cut interest rates, relax purchase restrictions, and housing banks to stabilize the property market, completely reverse expectations, and boost confidence.

5. How to boost the economy? Regulation should be slow, and rescue should be urgent. The first push is strong, the second is weak, and the third is exhausted. Avoid loose monetary policy, which consumes both ammunition and confidence. Successful economic stimulus is a package of large-scale economic stimulus plans. In 1998, China fought against the Asian financial crisis, in 2009 it responded to the international financial crisis, and in 2020 the United States responded to the epidemic. Fiscal expansion can be combined with monetary easing to focus on stimulating new infrastructure and new quality productivity, while taking into account stable growth and high-quality development.

6. Should we suspend IPOs? A partner of a large venture capital company said that they used to invest in hundreds of projects every year, but only invested in single-digit projects in the first half of this year. The venture capital industry has shrunk significantly, causing a large number of technology startups to face huge financing difficulties this year. This needs to be taken seriously, and will significantly affect the innovation-driven high-quality development and new quality productivity. Now that IPOs are close to being suspended, it has a great impact on the primary market. If the primary market cannot be withdrawn, it will lead to difficulties in fundraising for venture capital companies, and there will be no money to invest in innovative and entrepreneurial companies. This ecological cycle is now destroyed and needs to be restored to provide a steady stream of ammunition for innovation and development.

7. How to achieve economic prosperity? Economic history tells us that, both in ancient and modern times, both in China and abroad, when the economy is doing well, there is a basic characteristic: releasing water to raise fish, taking a break with the people, reducing the tax burden, respecting common sense, and being pragmatic.

8. What do you think of entrepreneurship? Entrepreneurship is one of the most important production factors. Entrepreneurs bear the huge risks of innovation and entrepreneurship, and obtain surplus value accordingly. China continues to promote the marketization of factors such as capital, labor, land, data information, and technology, and strengthens the protection of property rights. Entrepreneurs combine the above production factors to participate in market competition. A group of entrepreneurs with "entrepreneurial spirit" have emerged in China and have become the trendsetters of the times.

9. How do you view the private economy? The private economy is the source of vitality for the market economy. In China, the private economy contributes to "56789", more than 50% of taxes, more than 60% of GDP, more than 70% of technological innovation achievements, more than 80% of urban employment, and more than 90% of the number of enterprises. The private economy is an important force in driving employment, economic growth, scientific and technological innovation, and achieving high-quality development. It is crucial to stimulate the vitality of the private economy. Every time I go to the south to investigate enterprises, I am deeply inspired. I sigh at the greatness of the market economy, the large market, the service-oriented government, the spirit of contract, and the entrepreneurial culture, and I see the hope of the Chinese economy.

10. Can policies that encourage childbirth increase the fertility rate? Internationally, subsidies are positively correlated with fertility rates. France has a high proportion of welfare expenditures and a high fertility rate. Germany has begun to learn from the "Nordic model" in recent years, increasing the amount of subsidies and improving the flexibility of receiving them, successfully crossing the "low fertility trap". Japan has been increasing the amount of fertility subsidies in recent years, but the intensity is still not as good as that of Nordic countries, and the fertility rate is hovering at a low level.

Dark clouds will not cover the sun forever, and darkness will always give way to dawn. Although we face various difficulties and obstacles, we still choose to climb upward. We sincerely wish the Chinese economy to cross mountains and seas and finally see the dawn!