Ten days of fighting on the Russian-Ukrainian border: the fighting spread to Belgorod, and Russia accused NATO of participating in the plan in advance
2024-08-17
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According to a report by China News Network citing Agence France-Presse, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on social media on August 15 after meeting with Ukrainian military commanders that the Ukrainian army has completely controlled the border town of Suja in Russia's Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Sersky said on the 15th that the Ukrainian army has controlled 82 settlements in Kursk Oblast, covering an area of 1,150 square kilometers and a depth of 35 kilometers.
On August 15, 2024, local time, in Kursk Oblast, Russia, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continued, and the Russian army used "Lancet" cruise missiles to attack the armored vehicles of the Ukrainian army. (Video screenshot) The Paper
The Russian Ministry of Defense released a battle report on the 15th, saying that the Russian side thwarted the Ukrainian army's actions in multiple settlements in Kursk that day and regained control of a village east of Sudja. Some Russian media pointed out that according to the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainian army advanced about 2 kilometers in the past day. Russian Defense Minister Belousov said that day that Russia will improve the effectiveness of the command and control system and increase funding and troop investment to protect border security. The Russian side also stated on the 16th that NATO and "Western intelligence agencies" were directly involved in Ukraine's attack plan on the Kursk region.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has not yet responded to Ukraine's statement on the situation in Suja. Earlier, Apti Alaudinov, the leader of the Chechen "Akhmat" special forces, said on the 14th that the Russian army was still carrying out operations in Suja and the Ukrainian army did not completely control the town.
Since the Ukrainian army launched a cross-border attack on Russia's Kursk Oblast on August 6, the scope of the exchange of fire between the two sides has been expanding. A Ukrainian frontline soldier revealed to the media that "fierce fighting" had taken place between Russia and Ukraine in Belgorod Oblast. Russia has not yet confirmed that ground fighting has occurred in Belgorod, but the state has declared a federal state of emergency on the 15th. Other observations pointed out that the Ukrainian army's advance in Kursk Oblast has slowed down, and the pressure on the eastern Ukrainian front has not been significantly relieved.
Belgorod fighting "extremely fierce", Ukraine claims control of Suja
The Washington Post quoted Ukrainian soldiers and commanders on the 15th as saying that their troops had been deployed on the Russian-Ukrainian border for several months and were sent to Russia four days ago to try to cross the border from Kolotilovka in Belgorod. However, the Russian troops in Belgorod seemed to be "well prepared". The area was reinforced with "Dragon's Teeth" anti-tank obstacles and a large number of mines were buried. The Ukrainian troops were almost immediately attacked by artillery, drones and aerial bombs, and many people were seriously injured.
According to Ukrainian soldiers, the Ukrainian army has advanced about 6 miles (about 9.66 kilometers) in the area. However, some soldiers are worried about the military operations in the area, saying that they "don't understand their (Russian) territory" and are "working blindly."
Brady Africk, an open source intelligence analyst at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), said that after the Ukrainian army launched an operation against Kursk, the Russian army in Belgorod may have been on high alert, and the local Russian army built a defense line after several cross-border attacks since last summer, which may be the reason for the more intense fighting. In addition, it is not clear whether the Ukrainian troops fighting in Belgorod have received the same level of support as the Ukrainian troops fighting in Kursk.
Russia has not confirmed that there was a ground battle with the Ukrainian army in Belgorod. However, Russian Defense Minister Belousov said at a meeting on the 15th that the military must first cooperate with other powerful departments and the Belgorod State Government to improve the efficiency of the troop management system, identify responsible persons, and increase the number of troops and equipment to perform major tasks. In addition, Russia is allocating "additional forces and funds" to ensure border security.
On the 15th, Zelensky said that the Ukrainian army had completely controlled the town of Sudja in Kursk Oblast. Currently, the only entrance for Russian natural gas to enter the European Union through Ukraine is located in this town. Ukraine also announced the establishment of a military control bureau in Kursk. Reuters said that this shows that the Ukrainian army still intends to "continue to go deeper." However, Ukraine has previously stated that it has no intention of occupying Russian territory for a long time, but wants to establish a "safe zone" to protect the Ukrainian border from the threat of artillery fire.
Russian independent media Verstka quoted a source from the Moscow mayor's office as saying that Russian politicians and officials were "very shocked" by Ukraine's cross-border attack and were becoming "more and more panicked." Initially, Moscow officials believed that the Russian army could end the offensive in "two or three days or at most a week," but this turned out to be wrong.
Another source with ties to the Russian parliament said officials were shocked because "Kursk is less than 500 kilometers from Moscow" (note: the actual distance is about 526 kilometers). The source said that "the fighting is very close" and people are "suffering and evacuated from places just a few hours away from Moscow." He also said that the situation is "more worrying than the situation in the Belgorod region." There, rocket and drone attacks have almost become "normal."
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on the 15th the establishment of a Military Security Coordination Committee for Border Regions, which will hold meetings at least once a week and whose responsibilities cover Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts.
Although the Ukrainian army is still advancing in Kursk, the speed has slowed down. The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Serski, said on the 15th that the Ukrainian army is advancing 500 meters to 1.5 kilometers in different directions every day. The Financial Times of the United Kingdom said that this data is about half of the distance reported by the Ukrainian side on the 13th. Maxar satellite images show that the Russian army is digging trenches to prevent the Ukrainian army from advancing to Lgov, west of Kursk.
Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said on the 15th that the US "has seen some Russian troops moving from Ukraine and surrounding areas to Kursk." Another source told CNN that several Russian brigade-level troops seemed to have moved to Kursk, with each brigade having at least 1,000 soldiers. However, Russia does not seem to have mobilized larger and more well-trained troops, and is mainly relying on untrained recruits drawn from other parts of Russia to strengthen its defense.
Currently, the Ukrainian army is still facing tremendous pressure on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. A Ukrainian soldier revealed to Politico, a U.S. political news website, that the situation on the Donetsk front has deteriorated since the Ukrainian army launched the Kursk offensive, "We have received less ammunition than before." Serski said on the 15th that the situation in eastern and southern Ukraine is still difficult, but "has been brought under control." The current defensive operations are mainly aimed at preventing the Russian army from advancing in the direction of Toretsk and Pokrovsk. Previously, Zelensky had ordered additional weapons to the above two places on the 14th. Reuters said this was a "tacit acceptance" of the increasing pressure.
Will the West relax restrictions? The prospects for peace talks are uncertain
Western countries generally took a "tacit" attitude towards Ukraine's cross-border attack, emphasizing that they did not participate, but reiterated their support for Ukraine. In addition, the Russian side also said that there were a large number of foreign mercenaries in the Ukrainian army participating in the attack, "Polish, English, and French can be heard everywhere. There are also many black people whose specific nationalities are unknown."
French media France 24 reported that Russian presidential aide Nikolay Patrushev said on the 16th that NATO and "Western intelligence agencies" led by the United States were directly involved in Ukraine's attack plan on the Kursk region.
The United States, Britain and other countries all claimed that they did not receive any advance notice before the Ukrainian attack, but Podolyak, the chief adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, said in an interview with the British Independent that "some things must be unexpected", but "discussions were also held among partner forces, but they were not made public."
The British Ministry of Defense said on the 15th that the Ukrainian army can use British weapons in operations in Russia, but the use of long-range "Storm Shadow" missiles is still restricted. According to reports from the BBC and Sky News, a source revealed that the British "Challenger-2" main battle tank has been used by Ukraine in the Kursk military operation.
The United States seems to be still evaluating how this action will reshape the political and military situation of the war to decide whether to further relax restrictions on the use of U.S.-made weapons against Ukraine. A U.S. official told CNN that the United States still does not allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons in Kursk, but not out of concern that the situation may escalate, but because the number of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) provided by the United States to Ukraine is limited, and the United States believes that these missiles are best used to continue to strike Crimea.
According to Politico on the 15th, the Biden administration is currently "open" to providing Ukraine with the long-range cruise missile "Joint Standoff Strike Missile" (JASSM), which will provide Ukraine's F-16 fighters with greater combat power. Once delivered, the JASSM missile will enable Ukraine to obtain the most powerful and longest-range weapon in its air force arsenal.
According to reports, a group of pro-Ukrainian U.S. lawmakers have been pressuring the Biden administration to relax restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S.-made weapons to strike targets in Russia. At present, the U.S. has not made a final decision on whether to provide such missiles, and the White House and the Pentagon are reportedly still in internal talks. But sources revealed that the Pentagon is already working with Ukraine to resolve technical issues, including reviewing sensitive technologies to ensure that Ukrainian fighter jets can launch such 2,400-pound missiles with 1,000-pound warheads at targets more than 230 miles (about 370 kilometers) away.
In addition, Global Times reported on the 16th that a spokesperson for the Canadian Ministry of National Defense said on the evening of August 15 local time that Canada has no geographical restrictions on the use of military equipment provided to Ukraine. The Canadian government has pledged to provide Ukraine with military aid worth 4 billion Canadian dollars by 2029, including Leopard 2 main battle tanks, armored support vehicles, M777 howitzers and ammunition.
In recent months, Russia and Ukraine have gradually "relaxed" their stance on peace talks. However, as the Ukrainian army launched an attack on Kursk, Russia's attitude towards peace talks has become increasingly tough. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on the 12th: "How can we negotiate with people who indiscriminately attack people?" Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova also said on the 14th that Ukraine's "terrorist attack" on Kursk would lead to a long-term suspension of the peace talks between the two sides.
According to the Russian newspaper Vedomosti, the Kremlin and the Russian diplomatic community now believe that the peace talks conditions put forward by Putin in June are no longer applicable, including Ukraine's commitment not to join NATO and the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia. Russia will not engage in dialogue under pressure, and the two sides will not be able to return to the negotiation issue until at least the operation in the Kursk region is over.
According to an interview published by Russian independent media on the 14th, Podolyak, chief adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, said that the Ukrainian army's attack on Kursk had four important political goals, including: launching a defensive war to protect the Ukrainian people from Russian artillery fire; cutting off Russia's logistics routes and destroying military facilities; proving to Ukraine's international partners that Russia cannot control the internal risks that are gradually increasing due to the war; and transferring the war to Russian territory and bringing serious social consequences to Russia.
When talking about Russia's latest statement on peace talks, Podolyak said, "No one will negotiate with Putin on Putin's terms." Ukraine believes that only when Russia realizes that the cost of war is increasing, it will be possible to start a negotiation process with Russia. He also said that the Kursk war alone will not prompt Russia to start negotiations, but if Ukraine has more weapons, Russia loses on other fronts, and the Russian economy suffers a heavy blow, these factors will jointly promote peace talks.
According to the Moscow Times, Dmytro Lubinets, the Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner of the Verkhovna Rada, said on the evening of the 14th that Russia and Ukraine have started talks on exchanging prisoners. Ukraine has not yet announced the total number of Russian soldiers captured in the Kursk operation, but revealed that there were "hundreds". The Ukrainian intelligence department announced on the 15th that it had captured 102 soldiers from the Russian 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the Chechen "Akhmat" Force, calling it "the largest number of enemy soldiers captured at one time."
The Paper reporter Hou Danwei and intern Zhan Huijuan
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