2024-08-16
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On August 14, 2024, Xinhua News Agency quoted the Japan Broadcasting Association as saying that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has decided not to participate in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in September, which means that after the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party is elected, Kishida will step down as Prime Minister of Japan.
What changes will there be in Japan’s military cooperation with its ally the United States in the future?
Just half a month ago, on July 31, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs held a press conference, stating that "the United States and Japan have strengthened their military and political alliance and begun to prepare for a large-scale war in the Asia-Pacific region."
On August 14, 2024, local time, in Tokyo, Japan, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attended a press conference at the Tokyo General Affairs Office and announced that he would not participate in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in September. (Visual China/Photo)
The background of this press conference of the Russian Foreign Ministry is that the US and Japanese foreign ministers and defense ministers issued a joint statement at the "2+2" meeting, stating that the United States will upgrade the US Forces Japan Command to a joint military command, namely the "Integrated Military Command," thereby giving the commander of US forces in Japan the authority to order "war tonight" without having to consult the US Indo-Pacific Theater Command in Hawaii, 6,500 kilometers away.
In fact, the establishment of the "Integrated Military Command" by the US military stationed in Japan is in equal connection with the "Integrated Cooperation Operations Command" established by Japan before the spring of 2025. The purpose is to respond to the strategic competition among regional powers, strengthen the so-called "Three Seas Linkage" (East China Sea, South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait), and strive to form a linkage effect with the Korean Peninsula.
The role of the US military stationed in Japan has changed. Instead of directly engaging in combat with the opponent as before, they can now, as needed, "the Japanese will deal with it first, and the Americans will provide support and defense from behind." This will further enhance the aggressiveness of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, and may bring about more serious changes to the security situation in Northeast Asia.
On July 29, 2024, local time, in Tokyo, Japan, the Foreign Ministers' Meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the United States, Japan, India and Australia was held. (Visual China/Photo)
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a warning, which probably has three strategic intentions:
First, it is to remind imperialism that it is "still thieving". Historically, the United States has plundered other countries' resources and wealth by launching wars and fighting "group fights". After the end of the Cold War, Northeast Asia remains the focal area of great power competition and game, with frequent geopolitical security incidents. The Biden administration has mobilized its allies in Japan and South Korea to promote great power competition.
Under the high-pressure policy of the Biden administration, North Korea has frequently tested missiles. The connotation of the US-Japan alliance has been deepened and expanded, and multiple small circles such as the US-Japan-ROK trilateral framework, the US-Japan-India-Australia quadrilateral security dialogue mechanism, and the US-Japan-Philippines have been established. The United States has wooed Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia, and frequently held offensive and defensive combat exercises on the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait. The situation in Northeast Asia is complex and severe, and security risks have increased significantly.
Second, we should deal with the new ways of collusion between the United States and Japan. In recent years, the United States and Japan have been continuously cooperating in defense, involving the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the Ukrainian battlefield and other directions, covering intelligence reconnaissance sharing, high-end weapons research and development, joint combat training, emergency response and other aspects.
On August 18, 2023, the United States, Japan and South Korea reached a consensus at the "Camp David Summit" to "institutionalize" cooperation in multiple areas such as regional security, hold military exercises and trilateral summits every year, and prompt the United States, Japan and South Korea to reach an agreement on jointly exerting pressure and confronting North Korea. The security cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea extends from the Korean Peninsula to the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea, with the function of containing and guarding against China, Russia and North Korea, and its radiation range expands to the entire Western Pacific.
On July 28, 2024, the defense ministers of the United States, Japan and South Korea held a meeting in Tokyo and vowed to strengthen cooperation and share missile warning data in real time to curb North Korea's "nuclear and missile" threats. In the US-Japan bilateral joint exercise "Resolute Dragon 24", the US Marine Corps Littoral Regiment deployed the new AN/TPS-80 ground/air mission-oriented radar system on Yonaguni Island for the first time to improve multi-domain combat reconnaissance and early warning capabilities.
Third, we should remind you that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". The United States has wooed Japan to implement strategic containment of China in the Western Pacific, put pressure on North Korea on the Korean Peninsula, Japan has provided military assistance to Ukraine, and the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia has not yet been resolved. Under such circumstances, it is very important to strengthen the China-Russia strategic cooperative partnership, bridge the differences between countries in Northeast Asia, and maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea.
Since 2023, the United States, Japan and South Korea have held nuclear and conventional exercises on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea has responded to the pressure and provocation of the United States, Japan and South Korea with "strong against strong" and launched medium and long-range missiles.Ballistic MissilesIn response, North Korea launched long-range rockets and declared that the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula would mean a power vacuum and accelerate the outbreak of war. Russia's warning is also intended to strengthen strategic cooperation with China and let China help share Russia's security pressure in Northeast Asia.
On August 8, 2024, U.S. media reported that a recent U.S. military research report exaggerated the threats from China, Russia and North Korea with the intention of deepening the U.S.-Japan alliance and preparing for a large-scale war.
In recent years, the United States has been making various war preparations, using its allies such as Japan to establish an offensive and defensive combat system in the first and second island chains in the Western Pacific, attempting to contain and suppress China, Russia, and North Korea. The main purpose is to curb the rapid growth of China's military power and influence, and to complete the military encirclement of Russia in Asia, in coordination withNATO"Proxy war" against Russia in Europe.
The first is "joint anti-missile blockade". The United States is building a missile defense network in Northeast Asia, which is led by the United States and supported by Japan and South Korea. This includes building joint detection and early warning, conducting all-weather surveillance of key areas around the world, and implementing joint interception operations. The Aegis ships of the United States, Japan and South Korea use standard 3 missiles to intercept mid-course ballistic missiles, and the Patriot air defense system conducts terminal interception. In the anti-missile interception combat training in the "Valiant Shield-2024" military exercise, each combat unit can become a command and control node, realizing the transformation of combat control rights to empowerment on demand.
The second is "multi-domain joint operations". From June 27 to 29, 2024, the United States, Japan and South Korea held their first multi-domain joint military exercise codenamed "Freedom Blade". The exercise covered multiple fields such as sea, air, space, and network. The three countries conducted drills such as maritime anti-missile, anti-submarine operations, air defense operations, search and rescue, maritime interception, and network defense. Various types of Korean, American and Japanese ships and military aircraft participated in the exercise, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.
Against the backdrop of Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea and the signing of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, this military exercise also reflects the three countries' efforts to exert greater strategic pressure on North Korea. The United States wants to tie down Japan and South Korea through the exercise, using the U.S. military bases in Japan and South Korea to form a "forward deployment". Japan and South Korea use joint exercises with the United States to expand the exercise area and enhance the long-range combat capability and offensiveness of the Self-Defense Forces.
The third is "networked super bombing". The US Air Force recently announced that it will form the first Air Force super squadron based on the 36th Fighter Squadron stationed at Busan, South Korea, relying on the dynamic network combination force.F-16 fighter, mainlyF-16Used as a fighter-bomber, it is equipped with a large number of precisionGuided bombEven nuclear missiles can be used to bomb tactical targets on the ground, and even tactical missiles or ballistic missiles, including long-range rocket launchers, that are in a mobile deployment state can be hunted down. The deployment of super squadrons on the Korean Peninsula is a clear deterrent to North Korea.
Fourth, "joint firepower counterattack". Using the scattered deployment of the U.S. Marine Corps and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces on the southwestern islands of Japan, using "Tomahawk" cruise missiles,Himas”Rocket Launcher、12-styleAnti-ship missilesThe 2024 Rim of the Pacific multinational exercise led by the United States lasted for more than a month, with more than 25,000 officers and soldiers from 29 countries participating. For the first time, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces' shore-to-ship missile force simulated a "missile attack on enemy bases" with the intelligence support of its allies.
The war preparations made by the United States and Japan include:
Adjust the command framework of the US military stationed in Japan. The United States and Japan confirmed that the US military stationed in Japan will establish a "combined military command" mainly to strengthen the coordination and connection between the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the US military, enhance deterrence, emergency response and joint combat capabilities, and this move is also to expand the scope of activities of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces in the event of "war on the Korean Peninsula or the Taiwan Strait." The United States and Japan intend to jointly plan large-scale operations, significantly increase training activities, and expand the US military base on Okinawa Island, Japan. This shows that the United States and Japan are now starting from the combat command system to greatly shorten the emergency combat response chain when "something happens" on the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait.
Adopt an "extended threat" strategy. The United States and Japan recently held their first "extended deterrence" ministerial meeting, which included the use ofnuclear weaponThe main reason why Japan is eager to get the nuclear protection commitment written by the United States is that it is eager to get the nuclear protection commitment written by the United States. On July 11, 2024, South Korea and the United States signed a joint statement on the "Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula", which is essentially the United States providing a nuclear umbrella to its allies. This is a very tempting bait for the United States to form alliances around the world. The United States helps to carry out nuclear counterattacks. "Extended nuclear deterrence" is actually a rhetoric for the United States to form a military alliance.
Establishing a "military base cluster". The US military is expanding air bases in Australia to support the deployment of B-52 bombers, F-22 stealth fighters, and refueling and transport aircraft to form a so-called "base cluster". The Australian base is about 3,600 kilometers from Guam, about 4,000 kilometers to the South China Sea, and nearly 8,000 kilometers to Hawaii. In the next few years, the US Marine Corps will deploy a small-scale coastal combat regiment with rapid response capabilities in Guam.
Practice "rapid deployment". The United States, Japan and Australia jointly launched the "Counter North 2023" joint air force military exercise to simulate a large-scale war with China. In order to avoid a devastating blow to military bases in the Asia-Pacific region, the US military chose to mobilize troops from US military bases in Japan, Guam and more dispersed bases around the world to practice "rapid deployment" capabilities.
Currently, the United States and Japan have ushered in a "new era of security cooperation." In the future, the topics of military security cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea may expand from responding to North Korea's nuclear and missile development to the entire Western Pacific, improve the trilateral intelligence sharing and joint command and combat system, and the United States may grant Japan and South Korea greater autonomy in military operations.
The United States and Japan will have deeper cooperation in cyberspace, space, deep sea, nuclear fusion, artificial intelligence, electronic warfare, air defense and anti-missile, quantum domain, and hypersonic weapons. The United States and Japan are also increasing their so-called "assistance" in military equipment and weapons to the Philippines, Vietnam, and Australia. The militarization of the US-Japan alliance will have a greater regional impact.
Today, the United States, Japan, and South Korea are stepping up their efforts to tie up and plan, and the situation in Northeast Asia is likely to become more tense in the future, with the risk of military conflict on the rise. In 2024, the Korean Peninsula will still be shrouded in the shadow of confrontation.
First, the situation on the peninsula has escalated. With the help of the United States, the support of South Korea, the cooperation of Japan, and the stimulation of North Korea, the trilateral relationship between the United States, Japan, and South Korea has been unprecedentedly improved. The United States, Japan, and South Korea have not only achieved substantive military cooperation, but also reached an "alliance in case of emergency" to seek collective security in the military.
The United States intends to build the "iron triangle" of the United States, Japan and South Korea to play the role of a frontier position to contain China, North Korea and Russia. The greatest common denominator of the cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea is to target the so-called nuclear development of North Korea, and the real direction of the United States and Japan is still to target China and Russia.
North Korea also responded forcefully at the diplomatic and military levels. The heads of state of North Korea and Russia announced efforts to establish a more comprehensive bilateral partnership and expressed "a strong desire to further strengthen strategic and tactical cooperation to safeguard the core interests of both countries and to establish a new multipolar international order based on independence and justice." Although the possibility of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula is increasing, the relevant countries in Northeast Asia do not want to see the situation on the peninsula get out of control.
Crisis management may become a new form of security cooperation. In Northeast Asia, where the trend of camp confrontation is becoming increasingly obvious, it is a form of cooperation under the condition of lack of mutual trust.
Second, the nuclear threat has become normalized. The United States is ready to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue first, and then the North Korean nuclear issue. However, due to the deadlock in the US negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, the United States has also fallen into a "difficult" situation in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. Now, the United States and Japan are strengthening "extended deterrence", a product of the Cold War, and seeking the so-called "nuclear deterrence", which will increase tensions in Northeast Asia and trigger the risk of nuclear proliferation and nuclear conflict.
The United States, Japan and South Korea are accelerating the deployment of strategic assets in Northeast Asia, which will stimulate the nuclear issue to heat up and bring about a further escalation of tensions. It will also bring great harm to the nuclear combat system in the entire region and the world. Nuclear weapons are more sensitive not only to North Korea, Japan and South Korea, but also to the entire Northeast Asia region, which will stimulate the further escalation of the spiral nuclear threat tension on the peninsula.
Third, the arms race is becoming increasingly fierce. Japan has issued a new version of the National Security Strategy document, abandoning "exclusive defense" and building "counterattack capabilities", including various types of long-range offensive missiles.
Japan has used the Ukrainian crisis to exaggerate tensions, create strategic panic, strengthen its military system and legal system, increase its military strength, and develop long-range offensive missiles. Japan's 2024 defense budget exceeds 7.9 trillion yen, up more than 16% from fiscal 2023 (about 6.8 trillion yen).
Japan is accelerating the development of its beyond-the-horizon strike weapon system. Its self-developed composite guidance, general use of land, sea and air, and 12-type anti-ship missiles with a range of up to 1,500 kilometers are used as core weapons. They are equipped with data links and can be connected to reconnaissance satellites, air satellites,AWACSExchange information, and will begin to be deployed in Hokkaido and Japan's southwestern islands in 2025 together with American Tomahawk cruise missiles. Such an arms race or even a nuclear race is likely to fall into an escalating vicious cycle and further disrupt the stability of Northeast Asia.
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